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Spotlight - QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Ben Roethlisberger's passing statistics came back down to Earth last year, approximating career averages (280/468 for 3308 yards, 17 TDs and 15 interceptions). His numbers came in spite of attempting the second-most passes in his career so far (he threw 469 balls during 2006). He has only thrown more than 18 TD passes once (2007). Generally speaking, Roethlisberger has been a #2 QB in fantasy terms, as the Steelers rely heavily on their running game and defense to win the majority of the time. However, on occasion Roethlisberger posts a 300+ yard passing game - he did so three times during 2008, with 26/41 for 309 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception vs. Jacksonville in week 5; 31/41 for 308 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. San Diego in week 11; and 26/40 for 331 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions vs. Tennessee in week 16. When necessary, the Steelers do not hesitate to rely on Roethlisberger's passing arm, they just don't prefer to do so.

Entering this season, the Steelers lost deep-threat WR Nate Washington (15.8 yards per reception in 2008) to Tennessee, while adding veteran possession receiver Shaun McDonald from Detroit. Limas Sweed, a 2nd-round pick in the 2008 draft, is reportedly developing nicely and the team hopes he'll step into Washington's role this year. Hines Ward played a full slate of 16 games for the first time in 4 years during 2008, and received a steady diet of 126 targets (with 4 games over 100 yards receiving, 81/1043/7 on the year), while Super Bowl hero Santonio Holmes garnered 114 targets but only grabbed 55/821/5 during regular season. TE Heath Miller is a top talent at his position but saw his TD total drop off along with Roethlisberger's last year (48/514/3 on 65 targets - a high water mark for targets in Miller's career).

Essentially, the Steelers' starting pass-catchers at WR and TE are solid and reliable, but the depth situation is sketchy entering training camp. As long as the head-liners on the team stay healthy, Roethlisberger will have a good array of options to choose from. If the injury bug bites one or more of the starters, then Steelers fans and fantasy owners will be in for some anxious moments.

A legitimate concern regarding Roethlisberger is due to his less-than-ideal offensive line. The unit allowed the 4th-most sacks during 2008, with 49 sacks allowed, and only generated 3.7 yards per carry (29th). Taking over 3 sacks a game is tough on any QB - Roethlisberger made it through a full slate of 16 games for the first time in his career last year, but he took a lot of abuse on the journey. The team didn't do much to upgrade the OL during the offseason (we graded the line as an overall 'D' in our fantasy magazine this year, with a 'D' grade in pass blocking). The Steelers did add Kraig Urbik (OG - Wisconsin) in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft and A.Q. Shipley (C - Penn State) in the 7th round, but it remains to be seen how NFL-ready these rookies are. It looks like Roethlisberger is likely to see a lot of pass pressure during 2009.

On the other hand, the poor run-blocking of the offensive line may keep Roethlisberger's passing attempts in the 450+ range - he's averaged 436.5 pass attempts since Mike Tomlin and company took over for Bill Cowher back in 2007. As the offense looks right now, the passing game is more powerful than the rushing attack (Roethlisberger was 14th in the NFL last year with 3,301 yards passing; lead back Willie Parker was 26th in the NFL with 210/791/5 rushing), and teams tend to play to their strengths. Mewelde Moore was effective when called upon (140/588/5 rushing and 40/320/1 receiving), and he returns to the fold this year - we'll see if Rashard Mendenhall can help balance the scales this season, but he is still largely an unknown quantity at this level. The Steeler's rushing attack is not up to Franco Harris standards right now.

Positives

• Roethlisberger is a seasoned veteran with a solid starting wide receiver tandem and a great tight end
• He has shown the ability to be a Top 5 fantasy QB, and had several 300+ yards-passing games last season - he does have some 'boom' potential and upside at his current ADP of QB 13
• He played a full slate of 16 games last year for the first time in his career - he's developed the ability to shake off minor injuries and stay in the lineup

Negatives

• The return of Rashard Mendenhall to the RB stable may tilt the team's offense back in the direction of the running game - if the Steelers' offensive line performs better, Roethlisberger could finish closer to 400 pass attempts than 470
• There isn't much in the way of proven depth on the WR position - the departure of Nate Washington has yet to be overcome
• The offensive line allowed too many sacks last season - if Roethlisberger gets punished at the same rate this year he may find it difficult to stay on the field

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, Roethlisberger has been among the top five fantasy QBs during one season (2007), and has ranged from 12th to 20th in his other four campaigns. He's a twice-over Super Bowl champ, but as a fantasy QB he is generally a backup-caliber player with some occasional big games that may help your fantasy team win a few games here and there. He's not ideal as a QB #1, but he's a very solid QB #2.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

TheDirtyWord:
Could Ben Roethlisberger be this generations Troy Aikman?

For a two-time winning SB QB, he is not generating much buzz. From a fantasy perspective, Big Ben has had but 1 solid season (2007). Whereas last year, he was clearly overvalued, I think this year he might be undervalued...

Some interesting points of note as it relates Roethlisberger's production over the years.

1) Roethlisberger's YPA is directly correlatable to the Pittsburgh rushing attack.

2004: 2464 Rushing Yards; 8.9 YPA
2005: 2223 Rushing Yards; 8.9 YPA
2006: 1992 Rushing Yards; 7.5 YPA
2007: 2168 Rushing Yards; 7.8 YPA
2008: 1690 Rushing Yards; 7.0 YPA

You can look at his completion %'s and see a similar correlation.

Even in a down year, Big Ben's YPA was a respectable 7.0, but he's been as high as 8.9. Last year was probably the first year the Steelers offense was overly dependent on Roethlisberger. Prior to that, even in his superlative 2007, there was at least a solid balance if not a over reliance on the running attack.

2006 & 2008 represent years where the Steelers ground attack was not up to their usual standard. In those years, Roethlisberger's TD & INT %'s was a combined 3.7% & 4.0%. In 2004, 2005 & 2007, when the Pittsburgh ground attack was at it's best, 7.0% & 3.2%. So I think an important question to ask will be "How good will the Steelers rushing attack be in 2009?"

Willie Parker will be in the final year of his contract which will obviously motivate him. Rashard Mendenhall should be much more of a factor and Mewelde Moore is as underrated and versatile player as there is at the RB position. The Steelers have an embarassment of riches at ths position and assuming good health, they should reclaim a Top 5 standing in the NFL.

2) Remember that toughest schedule in the NFL thing Pittsburgh had to deal with in 2008...?

Well last year, the passing defenses of the teams he played gave up an 3207.5 yards with a 6.35 YPA. Included in that group were 13 teams who ranked in the top half of the NFL in passing defense including 8 that were in the Top 11 (9 if you count Baltimore twice). In short, Roethlisberger couldn't have had a more difficult schedule to produce against and yet he accumulated 3301 passing yards and a 7.0 YPA. A quick glance at Big Ben's passing schedule this year does not look as intimidating on the surface (DET, KC, DEN, MIA appear).

One last thing...I think by winning the SB in the way he won it will help Roethlisberger reach a new level. He famously was disappointed in his performance during the Steelers first SB game. But he came up big this time. I think he might even admit, he got a bit of a monkey off his back that he placed there himself. But as he gets older, I think he'll continue to improve. He won't even be a Manning or Brady type QB because he simply won't ever get that many attempts. But I think people will overlook him based on his statistically mediocre 2008.

Frenchy Fuqua:
Last year the Steelers scored just 34 TD on offense, their lowest total in Roethlisberger's five seasons. In 05-07 the Steelers O averaged over 41 TD per season. I think the tough schedule and inexperienced O-line hurt Ben's fantasy production. In 2009 I expect the Steelers to have one of the best offenses in the league, but probably one that is well balanced. With plenty of options at the skill positions, a more experienced O-line and an easier schedule I think Ben will be a solid QB1 that can be drafted after the top 10-12 QBs.

rzrback77:
Big Ben is a stud of a player in the real world of the NFL, but is just adequate for fantasy purposes. He is amazing at generating a big play when nothing is available and he seems to always be at this best when a big play is needed, but when you are reviewing stats I just don't see wanting him on my team.

Roethlisberger
04 14 gms 196 comp in 295 att 66.4% 2621 yds 8.9 ypa 17 TD 11 int rush 56 times for 144 yards and 1 TD FBG rank 20
05 13 gms 168 comp in 268 att 62.7% 2385 yds 8.9 ypa 17 TD 9 int rush 31 times for 69 yards and 3 TDs FBG rank 18
06 15 gms 280 comp in 459 att 59.7% 3513 yds 7.5 ypa 18 TD 23 int rush 32 times for 98 yards and 2 TDs FBG rank 12
07 15 gms 264 comp in 404 att 65.3% 3154 yds 7.8 ypa 32 TD 11 int rush 35 times for 204 yards and 2 TDs FBG rank 5
08 16 gms 280 comp in 468 att 59.8% 3308 yds 7.1 ypa 17 TD 15 int rush 34 times for 104 yards and 2 TDs FBG rank 17

His yearly rankings of 20, 18, 12, 5, and 17 tell the story. In only large leagues is he playable. Add in the fact that he does his best when the chips are down and you may play him when you shouldn't and not play him when you should because of his penchant for surprise.

Ben Roethlisberger Projections