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Spotlight - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Aaron Rodgers was an elite fantasy QB last year in every sense of term, playing splendidly under immense pressure as Brett Favre's successor (and playing through a painful shoulder separation for most of the season). He threw 341/536 for 4,038 yards (an impressive 63.6% completion rate), with 28 TDs and 13 interceptions, and also rewarded his fantasy owners with 4 rushing TDs (56/207/4). When the dust settled on the 2008 season, Rodgers was the second-ranked fantasy QB in the land. He is now firmly entrenched as the starter and last year's distractions are all behind him. Despite his youth (he'll be 26 in December), Rodgers has four years of NFL experience under his belt. All the pieces are in place for him to have another outstanding fantasy campaign during 2009.

First of all, the Packers' offense is stacked with a good mix of explosive youth and savvy veteran experience at every receiving position, with a reliable running game to keep opposing defenses honest. The first knife in Rodgers' drawer is Greg Jennings, who averaged an eye-popping 16.2 yards-per-reception en route to 80/1292/9 receiving last year - he'll be just 26 on September 21st, qualifying him as one of the explosive youngsters on this squad. James Jones will be 25 in September (20/274/1 receiving last season during 10 games played), and Jordy Nelson will be 24 by then (33/366/2 receiving last season). Balancing the young guns are 34-year-old Donald Driver (who is an excellent second WR - he posted 74/1012/5 during Rodger's first year in the saddle); soon-to-be 29 year old TE Donald Lee (39/303/5 receiving last season); and soon-to-be 27 year old Ruvell Martin (15/149/1 receiving during 13 appearances as the Packers' fifth receiver). As you can see, Rodgers has a plethora of weapons to throw to (and throw at opposing defenses) entering 2009. The Packers' receiving corps may be the deepest unit in the NFL.

Adding to Rodgers' fantasy prospects his year is the fact that the team plans on giving him more flexibility to call audibles this season. "I just think that the way [our OC] calls plays, he'll give me more responsibility at the line of scrimmage this year," Rodgers said in a June interview with AP reporters. "I think it's him trusting that he can call more plays where there's more of a chance that I might change it at the line of scrimmage depending on what I see."

"And that respect level has grown through the type of preparation I have put in. I think he saw the way I prepared every week and knew, 'OK, he's studied the film, he's studied the game plan, he knows what to expect, so I can call the play in so if he doesn't like it or he sees something different, he knows what the correct checks are going to be,' instead of calling a play where you're kind of locked into this with no other options." With an outstanding first season as the starter under Rodgers' belt, he's now going to be able to parley his four years of experience/film study into more play-making opportunities on any given Sunday.

Third, Rodgers' sore shoulder has had time to heal during the offseason - if he could throw for over 4,000 yards passing while in serious pain from his injury during 2008, then there is room for improvement simply due to being pain-free in his throwing motions during 2009. Another plus for fantasy owners is that last year demonstrated that Rodgers is willing to play through pain and still deliver great games. From Week 11 to Week 17 last year, Rodgers threw two or more TDs in every game except one, and during that span posted totals of 20/31 for 227 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception; 23/41 for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 3 interceptions; 29/45 for 298 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception; 19/30 for 295 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception; 20/32 for 278 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception; 24/39 for 260 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception; and 21/31 for 308 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. He finished the year in outstanding fashion once he was fully comfortable - this year Rodgers should pick up right where he left off.

Positives

• Rodgers is a tough guy who played through pain for most of 2008
• Rodgers threw for a 63.6% completion rate last year (which is in the same ballpark as Peyton Manning's career 64.4% rate, for comparison's sake)
• Rodgers has an outstanding supporting cast with good depth - he shouldn't lack for quality targets during 2009
• Rodgers has room for improvement during year two as the starter - he doesn't appear to have hit his 'ceiling' yet

Negatives

• Rodgers' team plays in Lambeau Field, where extreme weather conditions can seriously hamper passing production on any given Sunday during November/December - arctic cold and high winds are the norm there at that time of year (as is true in Chicago's Soldier Field as well). Weather plays a big role in the outdoor NFC North playoff-race duels some years
• The Packers' defense was sub-standard last year - if they can turn around the defensive unit during 2009, Rodgers may not need to throw the ball as much as he did last year
• Rodgers scrambled quite a bit last year (56 carries) and scrambling QBs absorb more punishment than pocket passers as a general rule of thumb

Final Thoughts

Rodgers is an extremely talented QB with further room for improvement this season - and he'll have the play-calling flexibility to bring all his talents to bear, with a full arsenal of receivers during 2009, as well. He is one of THE elite fantasy QBs to target this season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
In Aaron Rodgers' first year as a starter, he was superb as a fantasy QB and very good as an NFL QB. He completed 63.6% of his passes for 7.5 ypa totaling over 4000 yards and 28 TDs. He only had two games without a passing TD, but he had a rushing TD in one of them. He had ten games with multiple passing TDs, including six of the last seven games.

Looking forward, he has a plethora of outstanding receivers led by Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, but backed up by talented youth in Jordy Nelson and James Jones. He has a decent TE in Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley is likely to see more of the field an he is even better than Lee. His RBs are solid receiving options.

If you play dynasty, despite the fact that it seemed like he waited behind Favre forever, he is only 25 entering the 09 season. He is tough and he is an adequate scrambler who can also produce rushing TDs (four in 08).

kremenull:
Last year we witnessed the birth of a star. This year, the young star cements himself as a SUPERSTAR QB. With Favre, Cutler, and Stafford in the NFC North Division, Rodgers sets the bar as the best QB in the division. In year 2 as the starter, I expect to see Rodgers essentially take a huge step in mastering HC McCarthy's system as they place more responsibilities on his shoulders. This guy has been in this system for 4-5 years now, and that type of consistency goes a long ways toward his comfort-level and success to-date. I wouldn't bet against this kid becoming one of the best in the game, very quickly.

The Man with the Plan:
Talent? Check.
Weapons? Check.
Crap defense? Check.

Aaron Rodgers Projections