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Spotlight - QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Philip Rivers was the model of efficiency last season. He took every snap for the Chargers, and while the team was just 25th in pass attempts, it was seventh in passing yards, first in yards per attempt, and first in passing touchdowns.

Despite attempting just 478 pass attempts, Rivers finished as the #3 fantasy QB last season. (He was #1 in fantasy points per pass attempt, with more than a 10% cushion over #2 Aaron Rodgers [minimum 100 attempts to qualify].)

Is Rivers likely to be a top five fantasy QB again in 2008? With an average draft position of QB5, it appears most fantasy owners put him right on the cusp. I'll give you the arguments for and against.

Reasons for optimism

1. The Chargers should run more offensive plays in 2009 than they did in 2008. Last season, they ran the fourth fewest plays in the league, largely because the injury-ridden defense could not get off the field. The Chargers were the sixth-worst team in the league at forcing their opponents to go three-and-out; and they surrendered first downs on over 40% of their opponents' third-down plays. With Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie (among others) in full health to begin this season, those numbers should change. If the Chargers can run an extra 50 offensive plays in 2009 (which would still likely keep them in the bottom half of the league), that could mean an additional 25 pass attempts or so for Rivers (which is non-trivial given Rivers' rate of about 0.75 fantasy points per attempt last season).

2. Two of Rivers' top three targets played hurt last season, but should be healthy heading into 2009. Antonio Gates hobbled through the season at far less than 100% with injuries to his toe, hip, and ankle. LaDainian Tomlinson, meanwhile, was slowed for nearly the whole season with a toe injury suffered in the opener. Gates and Tomlinson had been Rivers' #1 and #2 targets in 2006 and 2007. With their injuries in 2008, Vincent Jackson emerged as the team's top target, and grew into a solid NFL WR1 in the process. This season, Rivers should have all three of them at full strength, along with the savvy Chris Chambers, emerging Malcom Floyd, and physically talented youngsters Craig Davis and Legedu Naanee to spread the ball around to.

3. Under Norv Turner's tutoring, Rivers' game advanced by leaps and bounds in 2008, and he is not finished progressing as an NFL passer. Turner is known for developing young quarterbacks, and there's no reason to think Rivers has reached his peak in just his third year as a starter (and second year under Turner). His reads, timing, and accuracy are on an upward trend, and as Rivers improves as an NFL QB, so should his fantasy stats.

Reasons for caution

1. While Rivers may not be finished progressing as a quarterback, he is essentially coming off a career year in which he led the NFL in passer rating, yards per attempt, touchdown passes, and TD-INT ratio. That's a tough performance to live up to. Statistically, it's unlikely he'll be able to have that kind of season two years in a row. After such a stellar 2009, in a very real sense, the only place to go is down.

2. The Chargers' collapse on defense last year meant that they had to play nearly every game aggressively on offense to the bitter end. In 2009 in a weak division, there's a chance that the Chargers will be nursing more leads in the fourth quarter, or that they'll rest their starters in the final week or two of the season if they've clinched the division by then. (This is of greater concern in leagues whose championships are held in week 17.)

3. The Chargers' run-pass ratio was depressed in 2008 due to Tomlinson's injury, but could return to recent historical norms in 2009. In 2006, the Chargers had 522 rush attempts and 466 pass attempts. In 2007, they had 485 rush attempts and 471 pass attempts. Last year, with Tomlinson hobbled, they threw more often than they ran: they had just 421 rush attempts to go with 478 pass attempts. With Tomlinson entering the year healthy and eager to challenge for the league's rushing title in 2009, the Chargers could keep the ball on the ground more often, meaning that even if the team runs substantially more plays, Rivers may not get any more pass attempts.

Positives

• Rivers plays on a strong offense that should score a lot of points against a relatively weak schedule
• He has a slew of talented weapons around him -- Jackson, Gates, Tomlinson, Chambers, Floyd, et al. -- any of whom are capable of making big plays
• He has shown improvement over the last two years under coach Norv Turner, and should continue to become more comfortable as he gains maturity and experience
• His quick release and consistent accuracy can be counted on from year to year; they are not a fluke

Negatives

• Rivers has below-average arm strength for an NFL QB, and his throws lack zip when he is off-balance or has to throw off his back foot
• He is not much of a running threat, so he won't score fantasy points with his legs
• With better play from the defense and ground game in 2009, the Chargers may revert to a ball-control style of offense that gives Rivers fewer chances to rack up huge stats

Final Thoughts

In his three years as a starter, Rivers has finished as the #8, #15, and #3 fantasy quarterback, in that order. Was last year's foray into the top three a sign that he's become an elite fantasy QB, ready to join Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as one of the league's top passers? Or was it a one-year phenomenon, the result of a set of circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated? From my vantage point, Rivers has become an elite NFL QB; his leadership, accuracy, intelligence, and drive are among the best in the game. But he cannot be considered an elite fantasy QB as long as his team's offense is centered around the running game rather than the passing game. Did 2008 mark the transition from one to the other, or was it a one-year aberration owing to Tomlinson's injured toe? I don't know the answer, and I'm as eager as anybody else to watch it unfold. But the latter possibility is enough to keep me from specifically targeting Rivers in fantasy drafts at his current average draft position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Just Win Baby:
Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:

1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.

2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.

3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.

Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.

Now, that represents his opportunity. How about his effectiveness? Last season, he posted career highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD percentage, and QB rating. Why? Consider:

In 2006, he was a first year starter in a different and more conservative offense; he had 36 year old McCardell, Eric Parker, and Michael Turner instead of Chambers, Davis, Naanee, and Sproles; and Chambers and Floyd were not yet developed. In 2007, Rivers was adjusting to a new offense and a fair amount of turnover in offensive personnel -- McCardell, Parker, and Turner were gone, Naanee and Davis were rookies, and Sproles was back... and Chambers arrived and integrated into the offense at midseason.

In 2008, Rivers was a third year starter, and for the first time was a returning starter in the same offense. He also had a better set of targets than in the previous two seasons. The 2008 season is obviously the most similar to his situation in 2009, and, in fact, his situation in 2009 should be even better, with better health for his OL, Tomlinson, Gates, and his WRs, who collectively missed several games.

In college, Rivers was very good as a freshman, great as a sophomore and junior, and exploded in his senior (4th) year. I think he exploded last year, his third as an NFL starter, so I don't expect a similar jump as he had in college... but I see no reason that he can't come close to repeating his performance. And I want to note that there is significant upside here... suppose Tomlinson went down early, and the Chargers are left with rookie Gartrell Johnson and Sproles in the backfield... I could see Rivers getting 550+ attempts. Meanwhile, there isn't much downside... the Chargers were #25 in the NFL in passing attempts last season, so his attempts can't drop much if he stays healthy... and he's never missed a game (college or pro).

Maven:
550 passing attempts? I'm sorta on the fence with Rivers. I think his success can be attributed to the fact that the defense struggled, LT was injured/lack of running attack, and the # of long big plays his WRs made down the field.

Rivers threw the ball 478 times in 08 (65%), 460 in 07 (60.2%) and 460 times in 06 (61.7%). The difference? He converted more passes and most of those went for TDs.

I liken Rivers' breakout year of 08 to Roethlisburgers 30TD year a few years ago. Roeth threw about the same amount of passes in previous years but just converted more of them to TDs. The following year he fell back... Check those stats...

I think with an improved defense and healthy LT...Rivers will throw for 460-470 passes this year.. not 500 plus. I see your possession argument but ...with a better defense...I see them RUNNING more than PASSING.

I dont think you can bank on him hitting 65% of his passes again either. He'll probably fall back to 60-63%

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.

The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).

So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average.

I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

Philip Rivers Projections