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Spotlight - RB Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Another year, another season fantasy owners seem to doubt Clinton Portis. The way fantasy football usually works is that a player won’t stay undervalued for long. If a guy handily outperforms his average draft position in Year N, there’s a good bet he’ll fall short of his ADP in Year N+1 or N+2 because fantasy owners get excited about the guy and will continually raise his draft position until he finally falls short. Yet Clinton Portis, inexplicably, seems to outperform his ADP every single season.

If I were to write an epitaph for the Redskins star tailback, it would be "Loved as an RB2, Disrespected as an RB1." Every year, Portis is a guy that few people want to draft in the 1st round but are absolutely giddy to have fall to them in the 2nd. And usually their reluctance to draft him in the 1st round is the result of wanting to draft the younger player "with upside" figuring we’ve seen the best we’re going to see from Portis.

But when your best is as good a Portis’ best, who cares if there’s no more upside?

Portis may be a quirky guy, he certainly likes to have fun. But no matter what you think of his penchant for costumes and nicknames, no one can question his productivity, toughness, or work ethic. Consider that aside from his injury-shortened 2006 season, Portis has been THE focal point of his offense. And what’s more impressive is that he’s managed to perform in a number of different systems. His career started in the “RB Friendly” Mike Shanahan system in Denver, and many fantasy owners doubted whether he could maintain elite production in Washington, outside of ‘the system.’ He did it. And then Joe Gibbs came back to coach and fantasy owners worried Portis didn’t fit Gibbs’ preferred mold. Yet again, Portis flourished. And then fantasy owners wondered if Portis could bounce back after his injury-riddle 2006 season. He was awesome in 2007. Finally, many doubted whether Portis would lose touches in Jim Zorn’s ‘pass happy’ WCO. Instead, Portis ran 342 times and was the offensive centerpiece.

As I mentioned this time last year, Portis is better suited for Zorn’s system than most of the Redskins roster. Zorn is from Mike Holmgren’s WCO school, and believes in a balanced run/pass ratio. Just like Mike Shanahan’s system in Denver. This year, if QB Jason Campbell and the Redskins receiving corps can gain some confidence, Portis could be in line for more red zone looks.

The offensive line is admittedly a concern. Almost every projected top 15 fantasy back has at least one concern that an owner could use to discount him. In Portis’ case, that’s clearly the state of the Redskins offensive line. Chris Samuels is no spring chicken and clearly no longer ranks among the elite left tackles in the NFC. RT Jon Jansen is gone and his projected replacement, Stephon Heyer, has struggled in the preseason. The Skins have re-signed Derrick Dockery, but let’s not forget they were more than happy to let Dockery leave a few years ago. In other words, there are questions. If the line plays as poorly in the regular season as it’s looked in the preseason, even a talent like Portis might struggle with consistency.

There are other reasons for optimism. The Redskins added Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo this offseason, which should translate to a sturdier defensive showing. If the defense can hold opposing offense at bay more consistently, that means fewer instances of Washington trying to play catch up. That can only help Portis, in particularly. Another thing to remember is that Portis isn’t an old guy. People seem to think he’s a grizzled veteran, but he turns 28 years old this season. And last but certainly not least, the Skins have no legitimate alternatives for carries. Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright return as the backups, and neither have the talent nor history of robbing Portis of touches, much less goal-line work.

Positives

• Portis has been a top 10 fantasy back in five of seven seasons, and is coming off another monster year that saw him rush for almost 1,500 yards
• Not only does he have ability, but Portis has all the opportunity in the world to continue to flourish. He has no credible threats to his carries, and if anything Washington should run more this year given the improvements on defense
• Year in, year out fantasy owners look past his consistency and shoot for the moon with high risk, high reward alternatives. That leaves him available in the 2nd round or later

Negatives

• The Redskins have a lot of question marks, and neither the passing game nor the offensive line are necessarily positives for Portis' productivity. Opposing defenses could key on Portis and have littler incentive to take the 8th man out of the box
• Portis has been worked to the bone (2,052 carries in seven seasons) and there is a compounding effect to the pounding workhorse RBs take
• He's never been the most fluid receiver, making him slightly less compelling as an RB1 in PPR leagues

Final Thoughts

Clinton Portis has a subpar offensive line, isn't the best receiver, has been worked like a dog for seven years, and isn't the biggest back. And yet, those risks haven't kept him from being a perennial Top 10 fantasy back, nor should they in 2009 so long as he's healthy. He's patient, can make yards after contact, plays through minor injuries, gets better as the game wears on, and you can set a clock to him for 300+ carries and 1200-1400 yards rushing in an average season.

Remember, every one of this year's consensus Top 15 fantasy RBs has at least one major argument against them. Portis' current ADP (19th overall, RB13) sets him up as an awesome 2nd round option for an open minded owner. If you grab an elite WR in the 1st round, Portis is someone you can comfortably target in the 2nd and know you're not really giving up much ground to your opponents who took their RB1 in the 1st.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

dgreen:
He's one year older (aren't they all?). His line isn't as good as it was a couple years ago, but it's also a little better than it was last year. There are huge questions at RT and it's certainly possibly one of the mainstays breaks down in 2009. His QB and coach could be playing for their jobs. The passing game hopes to have another WR step up and provide a boost to the offense. The defense has added some talent and could lead to more turnovers and offensive possessions.

As much as things change year to year in DC, Portis remains the same. In many ways, Portis is an easy player to predict. He's extremely consistent and fairly reliable. I see the Redskins progressing some in their passing game and I predict a decline in rushing attempts and an increase in passing attempts. As a team, they need to be more aggressive and score more points to win games.

Rushing: 310-1300-11
Receiving: 32-225-1

I'm not sure why I predict a receiving TD every year even though he hasn't scored that way since 2004.

TheDirtyWord:
I'm not a big fan of Portis this year for a couple of reasons:

1) I actually made another post about this, but Portis falls into The Curse of 2000 category...The Curse of 2000.

I think it would be one thing if Portis was known for his diligence with regard to his conditioning. but if memory serves, he doesn't take nutrition all that seriously and gives lip service to keeping himself in the best of shape. Maybe my viewpoint is wrong on this, but this is the stage of ones career where diligence to these preparation methods pays off, and I don't think Portis has adhered much to them.

2) If you are going to point to Clinton Portis as one of the best RB's, you may also want to look at his post Thanksgiving stats the last 2 seasons:

10 Games
210 Carries
673 Rushing Yards
7 TDs
3.2 YPC

...and the season before that? He didn't make it to December. He's simply not the same back late in the season and he's always nicked up. It's one thing to play through those injuries and aches and pains earlier in your career. But Portis is 28 now, and it gets more difficult. With Washington, Portis has not had a season (other than the one he was injured in with fewer 325 carries). His December's have shown his wear and tear and I'm thinking this is the year it catches up to Portis with lower production.

3) There seems to be too much smoke with this contentious Zorn/Portis relationship to be absolutely nothing to it. It may not be Cutler/McDaniels, but there was a rift there last season with public comments made by Portis. Couple that with the fact that a slow Redksin start will have the Cowher/Shanahan/Holmgren/Gruden rumor mill working overtime and I could see this season being a huge distraction with more time dedicated to off-field sagas than on-field play. Since Portis has already voiced his displeasure publicly at least on one occasion, I'm sure it could happen again, and another media shytestorm ensues.

fatness:
Washington's defense will likely improve this year. They didn't give up a lot of yards last year but got few turnovers and near the end of games couldn't get off the field when it mattered (due to lack of turnovers and too much time on the field cause by offensive line problems). This year should see a few more turnovers with Haynesworth sometimes collapsing the opponents' o-line, leading to some short-field opportunities the Redskins didn't get last year.

They did little to upgrade their passing game so whether they want to or not they'll probably rely on the run a lot. And during games Portis wants the ball. He's their best offensive player and he'll get it a lot again. In the unlikely event their passing game improves (and it was pretty decent the first 6 games of last year before the o-line began disintegrating), Portis should see fewer carries, more open area to run to (something he's never had in Washington), more yardage and more TD's.

So much of this depends on their offensive line, which is old and shallow (like Couch Potato, but I digress...Hi Bruce!) and improved only by the addition of Dockery and by prayer. If they stay healthy the entire offense goes up a notch; if not it'll just be the Portis show.

Clinton Portis Projections