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Spotlight - QB Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

Every sport has one. The person that, as Rodney Dangerfield once said "gets no respect": Jaime Moyer in baseball, P.J. Brown in basketball, Jeff Burton in Nascar. You know them -- guys that have been around for a long time, plodding along with consistent, good-not-great production. And at the risk of writing the same cliché you'll no doubt read in most every fantasy publication this summer, Chad Pennington is the NFL quarterback who gets no respect.

From the time he left Webb High School in Knoxville, Pennington has been knocked for everything from his footwork to his arm strength to his inability to stay healthy to his inability to rise to the challenge against top competition. On the other hand, it's impossible to find anyone in locker rooms and front offices willing to say anything remotely negative about Pennington; by all accounts he's a great teammate, a mentor to younger players, and an all around good guy. As a result, Pennington continues to get a chance to compete for the starting job while more physically talented and younger players like David Carr, Rex Grossman, and Patrick Ramsey find themselves holding clipboards for years on end.

When the New York Jets released Pennington last offseason in favor of Brett Favre most Jets fans (and Favre fans) agreed heartily with the decision, even as many of them were hoping Pennington would land on his feet somewhere. Around this time last year Pennington was once again being thought of as an afterthought in fantasy circles. Conventional wisdom held that Pennington was a short-term veteran presence to help steward Chad Henne towards the starting job.

You no doubt know the rest of the story: Pennington was revitalized in Miami and benefited greatly from the change of scenery. He started 16 games for only the 2nd time in his nine-year career, threw for over 3,600 yards, and accounted for 20 touchdowns against only 10 turnovers. And Chad Pennington, he who has rarely garnered much respect as an NFL quarterback, finished as the 10th ranked player at the position for the season.

What does this season hold?

Going in to 2009 Pennington is clearly the Dolphins' starting quarterback and barring something completely unforeseen in his performance he'll remain under-center for the entire season. What is surprising and what you may not realize is that when Pennington has been healthy in his career, he has made for an excellent backup quarterback for fantasy rosters. In seasons in which he has played at least 10 games, Chad Pennington has never finished outside of the Top-24 quarterbacks in fantasy production. In seasons when Pennington has remained healthy all season long, his average fantasy finish is a startlingly high 13th.

The two knocks on Pennington are undeniable and valid: he gets hurt a lot and his upside appears limited. First, he has missed time due to injury in four of the seven seasons in which he was set to start for this team. If a player could ever be labeled "injury prone," Chad Pennington certainly fits the bill. Secondly, his best finish ever as a fantasy choice was last season when he finished 10th. And with an average of less then 1.2 passing touchdowns per game over the course of his career, it seems unlikely that Pennington would ever score enough fantasy points to be an elite quarterback. As a result, QB2's with upside such as Trent Edwards and Ben Roethlisberger are understandably being selected ahead of Pennington.

But here's the thing: Pennington's ADP in redraft leagues is QB24 at the end of the 13th round. We certainly think that Pennington's injury history and lack of upside is cause for concern, but the chance to select a potential top-15 quarterback at the same time others are selecting 5th and 6th receivers, defenses, and kickers seems like the kind of value savvy drafters seek on draft day. It cannot be stated clearly enough: if Chad Pennington stays healthy, he represents TREMENDOUS value as a backup quarterback. And if he gets injured, a player like Brady Quinn or Marc Bulger is likely to be available on your waiver wire.

Positives

• Remarkably consistent when healthy, never finishing outside of the top-24 when playing at least 10 games
• Moving to Miami may have revitalized his career. Pennington's best season as a quarterback came under the guidance of Bill Parcells and Tony Spagnola
• Pennington is remarkably accurate, posting a career 66% completion rate which ranks favorably compared to history's best quarterbacks

Negatives

• Pennington gets hurt. A lot. 4 times in the last 7 seasons he has been derailed for long stretches with injury
• Miami's Wildcat formation will take the ball out of Pennington's hands more then most starting quarterbacks around the league. And with the Wildcat formation being utilized close to the goal line, Pennington could miss out on a number of scoring opportunities
• Chad Henne and to a lesser extent, Pat White, were both selected to compete for the quarterback job eventually. While Bill Parcells' led teams rarely lean on young quarterbacks, it is undeniable that Pennington's tenure as a starter for Miami is not a long-term arrangement. Will he last the season?

Final Thoughts

If your goal is to find players in later rounds with the ability to "break out" and post stellar numbers, Chad Pennington is not your guy. In fact, he is pretty much the antithesis to such an idea. You'd be better off selecting Matt Stafford (who gets to throw to Calvin Johnson), Brady Quinn (who should win the job in Cleveland) or Marc Bulger (who has a career's worth of production to fall back on) if you are looking for a QB2 who MIGHT surprise you with QB1 numbers from time to time. But if you are interested in finding a high "floor" for your backup quarterback, Chad Pennington is a great choice. Yes, his injury history is a concern but we are confident that if Pennington can stay healthy, he'll pay dividends as a second quarterback to owners that choose to roster him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Two Deep:
4----Starts

110 att.
72 comp.
840 yards
3 tds
3 ints.

0-4 record:

L-Atl.
L- Indy
L- San D.
L- Buf

Replaced by Henne Week 5

baconisgood:
QB is the most distorted position in the league when it comes to final positioning. Generally you start or get 0 points. Pennington came in #10- but 11 + 12 would have been ahead of him if they played all 16 games (Thigpen and Romo). Schaub and Hill would have blown his score out of the water with 16 games, Garcia essentially would have tied him. Realistically Pennington was the 15th best QB last year and several QBs look to have improved their situation- Edwards, Orton, if Favre plays healthy all year he could beat him (or not, who knows what to expect at his age), Palmer will be back and if he plasy 16 will beat Pennington. Perhaps QB 23 is to low for Chad but anything higher than 15 is to high.

rzrback77:
Chad Pennington is a greet security blanket to draft in later rounds to have on hand, just in case. His current ADP is QB23 and 150 overall. FBG projections average 3,300 yards or so and most everybody expects him to be the starter. He finished an amaxing QB10 a year ago and it is probable for him to continue to play well enough to stay top 15 at a cheap price. The downside is that he rarely scores big, with only two games over 300 yards in 08. Still, in FBG scoring, he had seven of the regular season games where he scored over 20 fantasy points.

Looking at the projections, the QB10 is listed as 278 fantasy points and the difference between that and Pennington is only 39 points, or just over two points per game. You could do worse than stocking up on value picks at RB, WR, and TE, while waiting till the 13th round in a twelve team league and grabbing the Steady Eddie Cerebral Pennington.

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
Pennington was one of the more shocking QBs last year, or in recent memory for that matter. Who could've predicted that he would not only play well in Miami, but lead the team to more wins than Brett Favre did in his old haunt in New York? And who would've predicted a 16-game schedule for the oft injured veteran? Pennington is a high character QB who for some reason is held accountable for his flaws but isn't given the credit for his near-elite accuracy and grace under pressure. While the Dolphins offensive supporting cast isn't that compelling, it's no worse than a season ago. To my mind, Pennington represents great value as your fantasy backup. He can be had rounds after several QBs who, in my view, stand a good chance of falling short of Pennington's output.

Chad Pennington Projections