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Spotlight - RB Willie Parker, Washington Redskins

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marc Levin's Thoughts

It is hard to imagine it, but the Pittsburgh Steelers may not want a true workhorse or feature running back in their 2009 offense. The team's current running back stable brings different elements to the backfield. Willie Parker is an excellent one-cut speed back. Rashard Mendenhall runs north-south with burst rather than ankle-breaking cuts. Mewelde Moore is an excellent receiver and third down option. With both Parker and Mendenhall on the mend from 2008 injuries, and with the NFL gravitating towards two-back/pass-friendly systems, it is natural to assume that the running back situation in Pittsburgh will be of the committee variety.

However, we are talking about the Steelers. They are regularly at the top of the league in rushing attempts. A "committee" in Pittsburgh might still produce a fantasy running back with 300 touches. Over the last five years the Steelers finished 9th, 3rd, 14th, 1st, and 1st in rush attempts. For their RBs, that equated to an average of 459 rush attempts per season. Even assuming a workload share by Mendenhall and Moore, if Parker is both healthy and the starter, he should receive plenty of rush attempts in 2008. Less than 250 carries would be a conservative estimate of Parker's 2009 load. Somewhere between 250 and 275 is more likely for the Steelers' starting RB.

The real downside with Parker is whether he can recover enough from his 2009 post-season injury to regain his famed speed. Without that "one-cut...gone" speed, Parker's numbers become mediocre. He averaged a meager 3.8 YPC in 2008. He had a heavy enough workload after returning from an early season injury. But, he never regained the form he showed in the first two games of 2008, when he averaged 4.6 YPC and had 100+ yards each game.

Moreover, it is questionable how much red zone work he will receive this year. The Steelers are motivated to provide 5'10", 225-pound Mendenhall with those carries rather than 210-pound Parker. To further reduce Parker's fantasy potential, his steadily declining reception totals (from a high of 31 in '06 to a meager 3 in '08) should continue. Moore is a significantly better receiver than any other running back on the team. It is reasonable to predict fewer than 20 catches on the season for Parker.

The positive side of Parker's recovery is that he is a workout beast. There is no question he will put time into becoming the best football player his body will allow. Reports out of Pittsburgh back that up. He has been working out hard, practically living at the facility during the offseason, and running with apparent good speed. The issue, of course, is not whether he can run fast in June and July, but whether he can run fast while getting hit in August and September and whether he can sustain that explosiveness in October and November.

Parker will have quite a few motivational tools to make sure he is successful in 2009 -- several million of them, in point of fact. Parker is heading into the final year of his contract and needs to have a big year to convince either the Steelers or another team to pay him a premium salary. Parker will turn 29 in 2010. It is difficult for running backs sneaking up on 30 years old to demonstrate they are worth a lengthy and expensive contract. One way he can show he is worth a four-year, multi-million dollar contract is to bounce back strong and take on a starting RB's workload in 2009.

Additional to his contract, Parker has non-monetary reasons to be the best he can be in 2009. He has a strong sense of personal pride in his ability to run fast. He will be motivated through training camp and preseason by the threat of a highly drafted young guy (Mendenhall) stealing his starting job. He is on a successful football team that has a legitimate shot at getting Parker his third Super Bowl ring in five years.

The ironic thing about Parker's situation is that even if he is fully healthy and is given a large work load, he might not emerge as a strong fantasy force. A running back can only go as far as his offensive line will take him. In 2008, the Steelers' offensive line lacked the cohesiveness and dominance that is the unit's historical trademark. If the offensive line can not regain its 2005-2007 form, it may not matter whether Parker can.

As far as Parker's ADP goes, it is attractive. If you are able to land the Steelers' starting RB with the 60th overall pick, you are likely to receive tremendous value for that pick. If your league drafts as the ADP charts predict, feel comfortable adding Parker as your RB2 or RB3 over the other RBs available in that range (Derrick Ward, Jonathan Stewart, Chris "Beanie" Wells, and LenDale White). However, do not reach for him in the hope that he will reemerge as a top-10/top-12 RB. Bouncing back that far does not appear to be in the cards for Parker this year.

Positives

• Plays for a team with a long history of significant carries for the RB
• Motivated by several factors, including 2009 being a contract year and his starting role being challenged by Mendenhall
• Very attractive 5th/6th round ADP

Negatives

• Recovering from injury to leg that may have permanently restricted his ability to be "Fast" Willie Parker
• Offensive line is a question mark
• Could be outright replaced by Mendenhall if he does not perform well early in the season

Final Thoughts

Parker is a great value at his ADP. He should provide a consistent amount of rushing yardage per week, though an inconsistent amount of TDs. His receiving numbers will be negligible. His value in PPR leagues is significantly lower than in performance leagues. And, in dynasty leagues, it might be a good time to either acquire him very cheaply, or wait for him to have a few good games and try to sell him high. Whether the Steelers will use him to score short TDs is the biggest question mark to his fantasy success in 2009. If he receives an equal split of red zone touches, and is able to approach 8 rush TDs to go with his likely 1100 rush yards, he will be a steal as your RB2. That said, even if he is marginalized in the red zone, he should be a decent RB2/flex player for most fantasy squads as long as he receives more than 250 carries.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

5-ish Finkle:
In my view, Parker DOES have 3 things going for him right now:

1. Firstly, he's reportedly 100% healthy and has some of his lost burst back.
2. Secondly, he ALWAYS works his ### off in the offseason, practices, etc. and that endears him to the coaches
3. Third, and probably most importantly, he is A#1 on the list of "Tomlin's Guys." Every coach has them. Willie is probably more Mike's boy than Roethlisberger. He loves the guy(likely due in large part to #2.

Now, he isn't without warts or concerns, either.

1. His OL isn't the greatest at run blocking(though they did start to come together a shred better in the playoffs).
2. He's aging AND he's in a very crowded backfield.
3. The coaching staff has done little other than talk up Mendenhall's offseason since shortly after the SB. Hell, the week OF the SB either Tomlin or Arians said something about how impressive he had been looking in his rehab at that time.
4. Tomlin has recently been quoted as saying that Mendenhall will basically dictate Mendenhall's PT(i.e. if he performs, he'll play more, therefore, Parker would play less.)
5. They still have Moore, who shold handle all long-yardage 3rd downs.
6. They expended a 5th rounder on a guy who's primary contribution to the team, if he does indeed contribute, is probably going to be as a goal-line back.

I haven't done my Steeler projections yet, but I see a bunch of guys vying for a piece of the Steeler rushing pie. If all the backs remain relatively healthy I have a hard time seeing Parker with much more than 200 regualr season carries, and maybe 5-10 catches(if that). Yardage I have no guess yet. That OL need to improve quite a bit in the run game for me to think he'll crack much more than 4.0 YPC even. He's also probably third in the pecking order, as of today, to be used at the stripe.

If the Steelers run it 450ish times this year I could see Parker with 200-210 of those, Mendenhall with 140-150, Moore with 40-50(I see him doing most of his damage as a receiver, barring injury to the top 2 guys), Summers getting most of the short-yardage work, so maybe 20-25 for him and a handful for the totally inept Carey Davis. That'd leave about 30 or 40 carries for the QBs, end arounds to the WRs, etc.

davlar:
When I think about the fantasy prospects of Willie Parker, I'm not overly optimistic. His season ultimately depends on his buddy in the backfield, Rashard Mendenhall. The bottom line is the Steelers want to use Mendenhall more and not be made fools for spending a first round pick on him. Parker's touches have to decrease as a result.

However, what Fast Willie does have in his favour is that Mike Tomlin and the Steelers brass don't seem fully convinced on Mendenhall's skills yet. Tomlin's comments a few days ago about Mendenhall having to show him something in camp illustrated that quite clearly.

So here it is - Parker should be able to keep his job and get about 60% of the touches or more in the opening weeks, but as the Steelers give Mendenhall occasional touches they realise that they can't keep him out of the game 60% of the time. Mendenhall eventually becomes the starter, and the ratio, originally 60/40 in Parker's favour, switches around.

Dr.Octopus:
Parker is a player I have very little interest in this year. My projections are based on a best case scenario, meaning he stays healthy and gets a significant share of the carries in Pittsburgh this year. He has very little upside IMO - but his ceiling still makes a solid #2 or #3 RB if you can get him late in the draft after grabbing some WRs - and a good deal of downside if his injury woes continue.

Willie Parker Projections