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Spotlight - QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

For three straight seasons prior to the forgettable 2008 campaign, QB Carson Palmer was a top-ten fantasy quarterback. In fact, during the 2005 and 2006 seasons, he finished as the top and fourth-best quarterback in fantasy circles. He was an elite quarterback and put up some monster statistics during that span.

Palmer's passing statistics (2005 to 2007)

1042 completions
1604 attempts
65.0 % completion percentage
12 002 total passing yards
7.5 YPA
86 passing touchdowns
45 interceptions
955 total fantasy points

He was consistent, just entering the prime of his career and looked poised to remain a top fantasy performer for many years to come. Last year, however the wheels feel off for Palmer and the entire Bengals offense. He was lost for the season with an elbow injury after Week Five but even while he was playing, the passing attack was not clicking as we had grown to expect.

Palmer's 2008 statistics through five games

75 completions
129 attempts
58.1 % completion percentage
731 passing yards
5.7 Y/A
3 passing touchdowns
4 interceptions
47 fantasy points

His statistics were down significantly across the board and was a massive disappointment to fantasy owners who used a high pick to secure his services in 2008. Let's look at what went wrong.

Why Palmer struggled last season

1) Team was in disarray right from the mini-camps:

There were stories brewing right from the start of the mini-camps last year that things were not right in Cincinnati. Here is a news blurb from last May that highlighted that things were not rosy for the Bengals.

May 21, 2008, 23:17
Bengals :: QB, WR
Bengals QB Palmer Expresses Frustration Over WR Absences
ESPN - [Full Article]

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer expressed frustration during an interview on Wednesday over the absences of wide receiver Chad Johnson and wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh from the team's recent voluntary workouts. "You'd hope that a guy like Chad and a guy like T.J. would be here helping guys out and trying to make the team better in that way," Palmer said. "But they've got to handle their own business themselves, too."

Palmer was frustrated with his teammates and after the disappointing end to the 2007 season, who could blame him? Palmer wanted to win very badly while his teammates were chasing individual goals and needs. The 'Athlete formerly known as Chad Johnson' was having issues on and off the field. He was in the midst of an ugly contract dispute, seemed to be struggling with personal issues and did not even start practicing until mid-June. WR Chris Henry continued his struggles with off-the-field issues and was not available at the start of the season.

Looking at the situation heading into last season, it was no wonder why Palmer played so poorly out of the gate in 2008.

2) Offensive line struggled in pass protection:

Perhaps nothing can derail the fortunes of a quarterback faster than poor pass protection. The right tackle position underperformed throughout the season, the left side of the offensive line missed a significant amount of playing time and the unit never really came together as a group. Palmer's passes were often rushed and he had to dump too many passes underneath the coverage.

OK, OK, so he had a poor 2008 campaign. What should we expect in 2009?

Palmer is a true competitor with a fierce desire to win at the NFL level. He does not want to be the Archie Manning of his era and is determined to rebound back to his strong play of the past. There are a few strong reasons to believe he can indeed reemerge.

The Bengals made a few significant offensive changes heading into this season:

Firstly, they added rookie offensive tackle Andre Smith from Alabama and he will immediately step into a starting spot and be an upgrade for the club. Kyle Cook should win the starting center position for the team and he should improve as the year goes on. A true reason for optimism is the addition of veteran WR Laveranues Coles who should complement Chad Ochocinco well this season with his strong, underneath presence. Coles brings a hard-working, veteran presence to the Bengals.

Past results and competitive drive:

While there is no denying that Palmer and the entire offense struggled last season, it appears to be an aberration. Many different factors came into play in 2008 as illustrated above and Palmer is too much of a competitor to have another subpar performance. His consistency over the three-year stretch of '05 to '07 was spectacular and he has worked hard throughout the early part of 2009 to regain his past swagger.

Offense is clicking better early on in 2009 than all of last season:

Last year the atmosphere in Cincinnati was circus-like at best and that may be putting it mildly. Nothing was going right for the Bengals and things simply never got going in the right direction. So far, in 2009 however, things appear to be going better.

* Palmer is happy with the growth of WR Chris Henry:
- from the news page...

Bengals | Palmer praises C. Henry
Thu May 21, 01:07 PM
Joe Reedy, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer spoke highly of WR Chris Henry. 'He's a guy that's had a great offseason, really turned his life around,' Palmer said. 'I'm excited to watch him play. He's a guy that seems like he catches a touchdown every other ball that's thrown to him, he's that explosive. He's kind of taken over Chad's (Ochocinco) position and he's a guy that, like I said earlier, does not want to give up that spot right now.'

* Ochocinco is at least practicing with the team and trying to put things right between him and Palmer
- From the news page

Bengals | Ochocinco to stay with Palmer's family (Tue Jun 16, 08:57 AM) - The Associated Press reports Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco said during HBO's 'Joe Buck Live' he plans to stay with QB Carson Palmer's family in July to make up for the lost time of the pair not working together much during the offseason. 'For the time that I missed with Carson throughout the offseason, I'm going to make it up in July,' Ochocinco said.
Our View: "We do argue all the time like a married couple," Ochocinco said. "I think that's why we've been so successful together, because we have that type of relationship we can get on one another." Palmer and his flamboyant wideout have an interesting relationship to say the least. After criticizing Ochocinco earlier in the offseason for not being with the team, Palmer is now trying to make the most out of the current situation. This could be Ochocinco's last year with the Bengals, but it's shaping up to be an interesting one.

* Coles has brought a stabilizing presence to the club. He will thrive with the best passer he has played with throughout his career.

* The offensive line is back healthy and looks better than last year. Injuries, general ineffectiveness and a lack of continuity up front led to a sub-par 2008 campaign. The addition of Andre Smith will really help this unit once he finds his stride as a 1st-year player.

* Palmer is throwing the ball as well as he ever has and the elbow is not an issue:
- from the news page...
Bengals | Palmer at full speed Sun Apr 26, 02:44 PM
Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said QB Carson Palmer (elbow) will be at full-speed in the upcoming team activities. Lewis noted Palmer has a bit of a chip on his shoulder and something to prove after missing most of last year with an elbow injury.

Positives

• Palmer is among the best pure passers in the NFL when healthy
• The addition of Laveranues Coles assures the Bengals will once again field a deep and daunting WR corps
• The Bengals defense looks to struggle again, meaning the Bengals will need to throw to stay in quite a few games

Negatives

• The offensive line is being rebuilt and must jell quickly
• Chad Ochocinco remains a distraction
• The Bengals running game may not be effective, allowing opposing defenses the chance to overplay the pass

Final Thoughts

Carson Palmer is looking like a value pick this season after a horrible campaign in 2008. The offense appears poised to regain its past form and Palmer should approach 4,000 yards and 26+ touchdowns in 2009. Do not shy away from selecting him if he is on the board in the 6th / 7th rounds of your NFL fantasy draft. He will have a very strong season and help fantasy owners forget last year's fiasco.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

MAC_32:
Inexperienced offensive line, bad running game, improving but still nothing special defense, solid weapons at his disposal in the passing game. Sounds like a recipe for a solid fantasy QB and a less than spectacular real QB because he'll be leaned on too much to make plays. Where he's currently going in drafts I'm buying.

JDub15:
I think everyone is sleeping on the Bengals and on Carson Palmer this year...

Last season, the Bengals took the term 'dink and dunk' to the next level on offense, averaging only 8.8 years per completion, becoming the first offense in league history to drop below 9 yards per catch. An injured Carson Palmer, extreme offensive line woes, and too many TJ Houshmandzadeh screen pass play calls were to blame.

This season they boast one of the best receiving tandems in the league with Chris Henry, Laveranues Coles, and a Chad Ochocino who has renewed his focus. The offensive line has been upgraded with the additions of Andre Smith and Joanthan Luigs.

Last year the Bengals threw the rock 513 times...with an up-and-coming defense and a running game that should be solid, I'm going to project slightly lower numbers at 475, but that their avg. yard per catch rises from 8.8 to at least league average levels of 11.4.

From 2005-2007, CP completed an average of 65% of his passes, (I'm throwing out his 2009 campaign because of the state of the team), so I'm going with a 65% completion rate.

His average TD % over that same span was 5.4%, and INT% was 2.8%

The Man with the Plan:
I'm not seeing great things for Carson Palmer. The offensive line isn't as good as it was in the past. The receivers aren't as good. The running game isn't as good. His elbow injury caused him to miss most of last season. I don't know that he's healthy from that. This Bengals team isn't the good offensive force that we're used to seeing in years past. With all that going against him I don't think Carson Palmer can play for me this year.

rzrback77:
I am basing my projections on Carson Palmer being fully recovered from his elbow issues of last season.

Not counting last season he has finished as QB1, QB4, and QB9 while averaging very close to 4,000 yards per season. Personally I like Coles as well as TJ Housh and beside Chad Ochocinco, they also have three other potential WR3s available. Chris Henry could be very good as the 3rd receiver. They have two second year players that were both highly thought of as rookies.

Their running game is not explosive so they will be passing a lot as that is their strength. I look for Palmer currently with an ADP of QB12 and 77 overall to provide excellent value to those that wait on their QB.

Carson Palmer Projections