All Spotlights • Kyle Orton Player Page • DEN Projections • QB Projections • QB Rankings • DEN Team Report

Spotlight - QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Lost in the biggest trade of the offseason was the fate of one Kyle Orton, the "other quarterback" in the Jay Cutler to Chicago blockbuster deal. With so much back and forth between new head coach Josh McDaniels and Cutler after McDaniels was trying to bring Matt Cassel to the Broncos, Denver had little choice but to make the best deal that they could to both move Cutler and also get another QB into the mix. Enter Kyle Orton, the former starter from the Bears, who has already been named the starter for the Denver Broncos in 2009.

Many are wondering what all of that means for Cutler, but it is even more important to understand the implications of this deal for Orton and Denver. Cutler was able to put up huge stats for the Broncos in 2008 (384-616-4526, 25 TDs, 18 INTs) but understand that Orton is not Cutler, nor are the Broncos quite the same as last season. The Broncos struggled on the ground and were in shootouts most weeks, forcing Cutler to drop back and throw 30+ times nearly every game. With the addition of running backs Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and first round pick Knowshon Moreno the Broncos will attempt to try and keep some semblance of a balanced offense for 2009. Orton may throw 30 or more times now and then, but that should be the exception rather than the rule for Denver if things go according to plan for Josh McDaniels' new club.

The other dimension for Denver in 2009 is that the defense has changed, especially in the secondary. Champ Bailey returns at cornerback but the second corner spot is wide open. Joining Denver is former Eagle Brian Dawkins, who is viewed by many as a nice addition as far as leadership but those who follow Philadelphia closely (like myself) are quick to point out that he had lost a step (at least one) and is not the same imposing force as he once was when he roamed the Eagles' secondary and often crept up into the box. Dawkins' age and the thin air in Denver may be a bad combination for the Broncos and create another liability on defense -- which could be a good thing for Orton. Weakness on defense will improve the upside for the Bronco offense, boosting Orton's numbers.

Of course the biggest impact for Orton is that Bronco supporting cast -- Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal were Top 20 wideouts in 2008, combining for 195 receptions, 2245 yards and 11 scores. Last year Orton's best receiver was Matt Forte, but Orton still managed to collect 2,972 yards passing and 18 touchdown passes with very weak targets. There are legitimate concerns about both starting Denver wideouts (Marshall has behavioral and legal questions, while Royal has only played for one season), but a combined 2,000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns seems like a reasonable assumption. Adding to the offense is TE Tony Scheffler, who added 40 more catches, 645 yards and three touchdowns. When you factor in all three plus capable backs in Moreno, Buckhalter and Jordan who all have a good track record of making catches out of the backfield and it is easy to guess that 3,000 yards sounds like the rock bottom minimum for Orton this year.

Positives

• Kyle Orton comes into Denver as the immediate starter. Labeled as a key part of the Jay Cutler trade and with just Chris Simms behind him, Denver head coach Josh McDaniels practically has to use Orton all year long as his starter.
• Orton had 18 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards with a much weaker group of receivers in Chicago last season
• McDaniels made Matt Cassel fantasy relevant last year after Tom Brady was lost for the year. His wide open attack and strong track record on offense could afford Orton strong upside in 2009
• Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal put up over 2200 yards on nearly 200 catches last year for Denver. TE Tony Scheffler and backup wideouts Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley give Orton plenty of targets both down field and over the middle
• Running backs that can catch well out of the backfield give easier yardage opportunities for fantasy quarterbacks. Denver has brought in three backs since January with good hands -- Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Knowshon Moreno
• Denver's defense was suspect at best in 2008. Cutler put up big numbers in Denver because he had to throw 600+ times since he knew he had to get 30+ points most weeks to have a chance to win. While the Broncos did make some improvements, Denver still has plenty of weak spots on defense which will make Orton a likely candidate for a big game nearly every week

Negatives

• Kyle Orton is not as talented as Jay Cutler. Expectations should be tempered because Orton is far from the same player as his predecessor and is very unlikely to get close to Cutler's 2008 numbers
• Adding three running backs indicates that Denver will at least try to have some semblance of a balanced offense. Orton will still have good chances, but the game plan coming into the week will likely use the RBBC approach and try to control the game and clock with more of a ground game this season
• Brandon Marshall seems to be one misstep away from a "forced vacation" from Roger Goodell. Should that happen during 2009 Orton and the rest of Denver's offense takes a big hit

Final Thoughts

Kyle Orton is a very good fantasy value for 2009. He's already been named the starter and he has three big factors in his favor -- his receivers, his defense and his running backs. Both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal were big contributors for Denver last year, combining for over 2,200 yards and posting double-digit touchdowns. TE Tony Scheffler adds to the mix, as do solid depth at wideout with Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley. All three running back additions to Denver (Buckhalter, Jordan and Moreno) can catch and will boost Orton's passing totals. Currently Orton can be had in Round 10 as the 18th quarterback in fantasy drafts based on his current ADP -- making him a backup or even a "quarterback by committee" candidate for 2009 fantasy teams. With 3,000 yards and high teen touchdown totals as the likely downside risk for Orton, he should prove to be a worthy selection that late and could certainly outperform many quarterbacks taken ahead of him in weeks where Orton has a good matchup. He should not be relied upon as a QB1 however, especially with his tough playoff schedule (Week 15 -- Oakland, Week 16 at Philadelphia), but he can be a spot starter and good depth for 2009 fantasy rosters.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Just Win Baby:
From a fantasy perspective, if Orton wins the job and stays healthy, I think there is little doubt he will be above average. Last season, Denver attempted 620 passes. McDaniel's offense attempted 534. Denver's defense will presumably still be weak, so I'll project 550 passing attempts. Last season, Orton averaged 6.4 ypa and had a 3.9% TD percentage and 2.6% interception percentage. Just carrying those numbers over, with 550 attempts, he'd throw for 3520 yards, 21 TDs, and 14 interceptions. But those numbers don't reflect better offensive coaching and playcalling, better OL, and/or better targets. And it uses numbers that were negatively affected when he played hurt, which we don't know he will have to do this season. I think he could easily throw for 3700 yards and 25 TDs.

TheDirtyWord:
I also subscribe to the theory that Kyle Orton played very well last year prior to his injury and that overall, Denver made out pretty well in the Cutler deal. It will be interesting to see how he handles being the starter from Day 1 of training camp as he's never had that designation before.

Fact is, he's got one of the best LT's in the game protecting his blind side in Ryan Clady. I don't know from a schematic perspective how McDaniels might change protections and style, but this is a unit that gave up but 12 sacks in 628 attempts. So Orton should be in a position to stay healthy for 16 games.

A wild-card is what the Broncos decide to do with Brandon Marshall. Not having him on the field would have an impact on Orton's potential. At the same time, Eddie Royal might be the best WR Orton has thrown to and it appears that the Broncos will keep Scheffler offering Orton a solid big target in the middle of the field. In addition, the defense is at best a work in progress so it's possible that Orton's attempts could verge on the high side and overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see this offense produce at an above average pace.

At the end of the day, I could definitely see a scenario come January where people are giving kudos to the Broncos for making the trade they made with Cutler and getting what they did. You can question who they selected, but I think from a value perspective, they did very well.

Tanner9919:
I like your analysis, but there is no way he tosses only 9 ints. Denver will throw quite a bit this season, they'll have to, the Broncos' defense is probably the NFL's worst, so that leads to more chances for turnovers and more chances for Orton to get his block knocked off by opposing defenders.

I also highly doubt the ability of Belichick's cronies...from Crennel to Weis, to Mangini...each has serious problems as a head coach. Now enter McDaniels... if they lose Marshall, McDaniels will probably lose the team. If they keep Marshall, he'll be a malcontent in the locker room and it could get ugly. McDaniels hasn't warmed any hearts since arriving in Denver...he's acting like BB, Jr.

Just saying that the clubhouse could be a disaster. Sounds like players already have zero confidence in McDaniels.

Kyle Orton Projections