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Spotlight - WR Santana Moss, Washington Redskins

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

Santana Moss is a player known by fantasy owners as explosive, but volatile. Each and every week, Moss has the chance to have a monster game. Some owners hold this inconsistency against him because they never know which games he will score a ton of fantasy points and which he will have an off week. It is frustrating. But, for many, Moss as a fantasy WR3 gives them a tremendous edge many weeks. It would be different if you were relying on him as a WR1 or even WR2. But, as a WR3, a fantasy owner can live with the roller coaster.

Many of the issues Moss has are rooted at the quarterback position. Jason Campbell locks onto Moss and forces him the ball; Moss is Campbell's top target. Defenses know this and play accordingly. In addition, Campbell's accuracy issues lead to many missed opportunities for a wide open Moss. Last season, Moss accounted for almost half of the targets intended for WRs; 138 of the 285. In 2007, even with missing two games, Moss was targeted 115 out of a possible 274 receiver targets. This carries over to the red zone as well. Campbell looked for Moss on 20 of the 38 red zone targets to the wide receiver position. Moss is the apple of his quarterback's eye.

As Campbell had good games, so did Moss. In fact, Campbell's big games were because of Moss. In 2008, Campbell's two 300-yard games came in two of Moss' best efforts. He accounted for at least eight receptions and 140 receiving yards in each. Knowing how much the passing offense relied on Moss, the Washington Redskins drafted a pair of receivers in 2008, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. But despite high expectations, neither has yet bloomed into the player worthy of their draft pick. Kelly has struggled with knee issues. Thomas isn't as polished but is physically more gifted and flashed a bit of potential late in his rookie season. He is the one the Redskins are hoping can develop this season. Thomas only had one good season at Michigan State after coming from the junior college ranks. At those levels, he was able to use his athleticism to beat most defensive backs. This led to Thomas not honing his craft or preparing well as a pro. This offseason, Thomas has taken steps to correct his shortcomings. His athletic ability and smooth gait would be great news for Moss lined up on the other side of the field. Another strong option for Campbell will help Moss much more than it will hurt. Yes, some of the targets might be spread out, but so would the focus of the defense. This would move Antwaan Randle-El to the slot, a position in which he is best suited.

Moss is an extreme value at his current ADP (Average Draft Position). He is currently being taken as the 26th WR off the board, and 71st overall. This is after finishing as a Top 20 fantasy receiver last season. Why is he drafted so much lower even after a strong season?

The schedule makers were kind to the Redskins and the other NFC East teams. They get some easy games against below average defenses outside of the division. With the strength of the NFC East, this is a welcome sight. The Redskins play the teams from the AFC West and NFC South. There are some very poor defenses in the AFC West including the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders. In addition, the NFC South has the Falcons, Saints, to go with the aging Buccaneers and Panthers.

The Redskins tried their best to replace Jason Campbell this past spring. He weathered the storm, but one question remains: Can Campbell improve or at least play like he did in the first half of 2008? Campbell's strong first eight games helped Moss get off to a fast start last season. In the first eight games, Moss had five games with at least 75 receiving yards, and three with 140 or more yards. In addition, Moss scored five touchdowns in those eight games. If Campbell can put together 16 good games, Moss could have a big season. Campbell did complete 62% of his passes on the season, so there is hope.

Head coach Jim Zorn could play a huge role in Campbell's development. He knows about the quarterback position. Year Two in a system is usually a time for growth in a passer. Things start to slow down and things become more comfortable. This could be the case for Campbell as well. Moss will continue to be the focus of Campbell's passes. With concerns on the offensive line, will Campbell have enough time to throw? Can he get settled in the pocket and hit his play-making receiver for the big play? Can Campbell hold onto the job the entire season? What would be the effect on Moss if either Todd Collins or Colt Brennan became the quarterback? This is Campbell's last season under contract, and the team has not offered an extension. The answers to the above questions will impact Moss to say the least. But, he is the unquestioned primary receiver for the Redskins. It is difficult to find that in a fantasy WR3.

One major concern for Moss is that he has never had consecutive strong seasons. In fact, he has never posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Moss does have talent, the type of talent to be a very productive fantasy WR1 given improved quarterback play. Moss has finished as WR17 or higher in every season he has played all 16 games. Fantasy owners are hoping he can stay healthy once again in 2009.

Positives

• Moss is a polished, veteran receiver all but guaranteed to be the most targeted Redskin
• Moss has been the target of opposing defenses and any improvement in his supporting cast will be a positive for his chances to get singled up on the outside
• Jason Campbell seems to have shrugged off the offseason machinations to replace him, and should improve in his 2nd season running Zorn's offense

Negatives

• Moss has been inconsistent both game-to-game and season-to-season
• Jason Campbell doesn't appear to be the Redskins first choice to run the franchise, yet he's likely the Redskins only option at the position in 2009
• Barring a major leap forward for Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, Moss is always going to be blanketed by the opposing secondary. Antwaan Randle El is among the worst starters at the position and commands no respect from defenders

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, Santana Moss has been a victim of circumstances. Unfortunately not much has changed on the surface in D.C. this offseason. If things fall right, Moss could easily finish in the top 15-20 at his position, yet owners are wary about his supporting cast and the state of the QB position. So long as you target Moss at his ADP and look at him as a valuable WR3 with upside, he makes a ton of sense this year. But don't reach for him simply because he's a #1 target. Moss' questions are more about his supporting cast and coaching than they are his own abilities; but in fantasy football any risk is one we have to factor.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
I am excited about the prospects for Santana Moss in 09. Despite the search for a new QB, Jason Campbell is still there and I believe we will see a major improvement in the passing game for the Redskins. Santana Moss will be the primary recipient of that improvement. Santana has had an up and down career, but he is a perfect match for the skill set of Campbell.

Santana averaged almost nine targets per game in 08, despite having one game with only one target and four the next. In the other 14 games, he actually averaged 9.5 targets per game. With the other receivers being ARE and the two second year guys, I see Moss remaining the focus of Campbell's WR targets. Campbell completed 62% of his passes in 08 and Moss caught only 57% of his targets. I think that the 09 targets will remain close to the same level and the percentage of completions will rise.

Santana Moss will be an outstanding value pick at his current ADP of WR26 and 71 overall.

dgreen:
Unfortunately, Moss' production is extremely dependent on things other than himself. I guess that can be said about pretty much anyone. But, with Moss, he's dependent on things that are difficult to predict. Does Jason Campbell, and the offense as a whole, progress in year 2 of Zorn? Will the OL be good enough to give Campbell time to get the ball to Moss? Will another WR step up and take targets away?

Right now, Moss and Cooley and the clear 1a and 1b options in the passing game. I'm predicting (hoping?) the passing game takes a step forward this year with slightly better OL play and another year in the Zorn offense. However, I also predict (hope?) that Devin Thomas and/or Malcolm Kelly will actually provide some production.

Lab:
When I look at Santana Moss' down seasons (2004, 2006, 2007) and compare them to his up seasons (2005, 2008), the things that stand out to me are (1) he missed games in each of the down seasons, (2) his QB was "in transition" for those down seasons. Also, for 2006 at least, he lost Portis as a running threat, which I suspect allowed defenses to key on him. Also, during all these years, I don't think he's ever had a reliable WR playing opposite to pull any coverage. Yet during all that time, he's been a pretty reliable WR2/WR3. Also, he gets lots of targets when healthy (2008-2005: 11th, 24th, 34th, 13th). What's changed now? Campbell (while not great) is a decent QB in a relatively stable situation (at least for 2009). I'm hopeful he might be a little more aggressive in 2009. Between Cooley/ARE/Thomas/Kelly, there should be some potential to keep DBs honest and give Moss some room to make plays. On the down side, if Cooley/Thomas/Kelly play well, they should limit the number of TDs available to Moss.

Optimistic: 82 receptions, 1250 yards, 9 TDs
Realistic: 78 receptions, 1100 yards, 7 TDs
Pessimistic: 74 receptions, 950 yards, 5 TDs

Santana Moss Projections