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Spotlight - WR Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

The New Orleans Saints were the biggest passing attack in the NFL last season, leading the league in passing yardage and points scored. Drew Brees came one completion shy of passing Dan Marino's record of 5,084 yards, landing just 15 yards shy of that number. Lance Moore was a key part of that passing game, racking up 79 catches and 928 yards along with 10 touchdowns. Moore consistently went over the middle and moved the chains for New Orleans as he became Brees' favorite target for shorter and intermediate routes. As evidenced by his double-digit touchdown total, he was also quite popular in the Red Zone in 2008. Can it continue for 2009?

Brees will most assuredly be throwing the ball early and often in New Orleans this coming season. With weapons like Moore, Colston, Shockey, Miller and a healthy Reggie Bush, it would be crazy to expect Brees to not throw 30-35 times a game on average. Yes, Pierre Thomas is a nice back that can move a pile and work well inside the tackles, but the Saints are built for speed and to put up lots of points on the scoreboard. It also helps that they play in a dome and also travel to several favorable spots again this year -- either to another dome (Atlanta, St. Louis) or warm weather locations (Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina). Even two of their three road games to northern cities are in September (Philadelphia and Buffalo) which leaves just one contest (Washington) in potentially bad passing weather. Not a bad deal at all.

The picture is not all perfect for Moore, however, as he is returning from an offseason injury. Moore tore his labrum lifting weights before the NFL Draft. Moore had surgery in April and is ahead of schedule, wearing a red (no contact) jersey in Training Camp but he looks to be running at 100% by all accounts. Even if Moore is healthy, the Saints have been addressing their need to run a pass-happy attack by improving on the defensive side of the ball. While 13-10 defensive struggles in the Big Easy are unlikely, New Orleans may try not to have a "Marino Countdown" again this year as Brees looks for another 5,000+ yard season.

Positives

• Lance Moore is the possession receiver for one of the best, if not the best, passing attacks in the NFL. He should be a lock for 120 targets and be a coveted wideout in PPR leagues
• Despite an off-season injury, Moore has shown no signs of being less than full strength in Training Camp
• Drew Brees loves to throw, throw and throw some more. Even with plenty of options for the Saints' QB to target, Moore should get plenty of chances
• All of those options (Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller) actually help Moore to get less attention from defenses. Moore has shown that he can beat single coverage and move the chains
• Playing most of his games in a dome will help the Saints and Moore game plan for 30+ pass attempts every week

Negatives

• The Saints are improving on defense which may lower the need to throw the ball quite so often.
• Despite two good tight ends, neither Billy Miller nor Jeremy Shockey put up big stats, especially in the end zone. They combined for 95 catches and over 1,000 yards but just one score. Should either TE become a bigger Red Zone threat, Moore could lose some of his touchdown catches
• Moore's yards per catch were minimal last year, gathering only 11.7 yards a grab. Even with 79 catches he still could not top 1,000 yards -- remarkable in a 5,000+ yard passing attack
• Moore's fantasy numbers were boosted by his 10 touchdowns, a career best. If others Saints start getting the scores and Moore doesn't improve his YPC, he could slide down the fantasy WR list
• Reggie Bush was not 100% last season and missed six games. If Bush plays the full year he may eat into Moore's targets

Final Thoughts

Lance Moore is the possession wide receiver for a prolific passing attack. Most teams that are high on the passing yardage and points totals have two stud receivers, and it is a common recipe to have one deep threat and one wideout willing to pick up the tough yardage. Green Bay has Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Denver has Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Houston has Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Add to that list the duo of Marques Colston and Lance Moore. Both of them should see 100+ targets, but Moore should have more catches than Colston, but Colston could rack up more yardage. The good news is that both of them should be in the Top 20 of fantasy wide receivers for 2009, even with extra skill players yearning for targets. Drew Brees will throw 500+ times this season so there will be plenty of passes for everyone. Lower the expectations for Moore's trips to the end zone, but expect more of the same from last year otherwise.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Lance Moore is a player that I hope to be following in training camp. I hope that several Saint WRs "step up" and look good during the preseason with Moore playing little or none. Because I think that he will be the #2 WR for the Saints regardless of how well Arrington, Meacham, or Henderson perform in the pre-season. Moore's current ADP of WR31 and 84 overall could slip another round or two if he is held back in preseason and a few of the other WRs shine. Even though he will not be the primary WR, he could see close to the same number of targets as Colston, who has been injury prone throughout his career and is coming off micro-fracture surgery in January.

Consider that last season, Moore finished with 119 targets and 79 catches for a catch percentage of 66.4%. He is sure handed and Brees is accurate, a very nice combination. Add in that he started very slowly catching only three passes for 24 yards in the first two games. Wow, he averaged 5.4 catches on just over 8 targets per game the final 14 weeks of the season. Colston averaged nine targets per game in 07 and slipped to eight per game last year.

Despite Moore's smallish size at 5-11 184, he found openings all over the field and scored 10 TDs, with three multiple TD games. I think that he is the real deal and despite all the interest in the rest of the Saints youth, Moore will continue to produce for the Saints.

Lance Moore Projections