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Spotlight - QB Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Drafted second overall (behind Tim Couch) in 1999, and booed by Eagles fans who would have preferred Ricky Williams, McNabb started six of the last seven contests as a rookie, and has been the Eagles' franchise QB ever since.

In his first full season as a starter in 2000, he finished second to Marshall Faulk in the Associated Press MVP voting. In his nine seasons as a starter, McNabb has led the Eagles to five NFC Championship games, and one Super Bowl appearance.

In 2002, he showed his toughness when he broke his ankle on the third play of the game, but continued to play and completed 20 of 25 pass attempts for 255 yards and four touchdowns. The broken ankle ended his season, however. He was the #1 fantasy QB through the first 11 weeks.

In 2004, Terrell Owens joined the team and gave McNabb his first bona fide receiving threat on the outside. McNabb averaged 8.26 yards per attempt, completed 64% of his passes, and threw 31 touchdowns (14 of which were to Owens) with just 8 interceptions. The 2004 season proved that if you give McNabb legitimate firepower at the receiver position, he can be a top three fantasy QB.

McNabb's fantasy success continued into 2005. Through the first nine weeks of the season, McNabb was the #2 fantasy QB (behind Carson Palmer) when his season ended prematurely due to a sports hernia.

In 2006, McNabb lost Owens as a target, but he got off to an even faster start than he had in 2005. Through the first ten weeks, he was the #1 fantasy QB before tearing his ACL in week 11.

There are two noteworthy trends that emerge in this narrative so far: (1) When McNabb is on the field, he is a fantasy force. From 2000 through 2006, when McNabb's seasons ended he was ranked #5, #6, #1, #13, #3, #2, and #1. But (2) he had a very difficult time staying on the field. Between 2002 and 2006, three of his five seasons ended after ten games or less.

In 2007, McNabb returned to action and started in week one, less than ten months after tearing his ACL. He had a bit of an off year, finishing as the #12 fantasy QB while playing 14 games.

2008 can be considered a bounce-back season for McNabb, but it did include the first time McNabb was ever benched for poor play. After McNabb struggled in the first half against the Ravens in week twelve, backup QB Kevin Kolb got the nod in the second half. Kolb struggled, and McNabb played brilliantly the following week -- but one is left to wonder what if Kolb had played better? Would McNabb be an Eagle right now?

That sort of wondering is moot, however, because McNabb redeemed himself with a strong finish to the season, and led the Eagles to their fifth NFC Championship game with McNabb under center. McNabb was rewarded with a re-worked contract that gives him a substantial pay raise over the next two years. The new contract is a commitment by the Eagles that McNabb will be their starter at least through 2010.

Looking forward, there is much reason for optimism for McNabb and the Eagles.

McNabb will have plenty of new toys to play with this season. The Eagles added rookie WR Jeremy Maclin to pair with last year's rookie phenom, DeSean Jackson. They also added RB LeSean McCoy, a runner-receiver with skills similar to those of Brian Westbrook. (Thus if the injury-prone Westbrook misses time, the game-plan won't have to change. McCoy should be a plug-and-play replacement.) And a pass-catching tight end in Cornelius Ingram, a former basketball player with the athleticism to stretch defenses by running a seam route.

The offensive line was also upgraded, as the Eagles will have two new starters at the tackle positions. Jason Peters and Shawn Andres are better blockers than Tra Thomas and John Runyan, respectively.

For most of McNabb's tenure with the Eagles, he has had a lackluster WR corps to throw to. With the exception of the two years that Terrell Owens was in town, McNabb's top WRs have generally been along the lines of Todd Pinkston, James Thrash, and Reggie Brown.

In 2009, the WR corps suddenly looks talented and deep. DeSean Jackson gained over 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and looks to show improved consistency in his second year. Kevin Curtis had 1,110 receiving yards in 2007, but was greatly slowed by a hernia in 2008. He enters 2009 in better health. And this year's first-round pick, Jeremy Maclin, could make an immediate impact like Jackson did last year. Guys like Jason Avant, Reggie Brown, and Hank Baskett aren't cut out to be starters, but as the #4, #5, and #6 guys, they provide outstanding depth.

Positives

• McNabb is coming off a career-best 3,916 yard season
• The Eagles upgraded at nearly every position on offense by adding WR Jeremy Maclin, RB LeSean McCoy, TE Cornelius Ingram, and OT Jason Peters
• The Eagles' version of the west coast offense relies extensively on the pass, so McNabb could easily have 500+ attempts again in 2009

Negatives

• In ten seasons as a pro, McNabb has started all 16 games only four times
• The Eagles are often near the top of the league in pass attempts, but McNabb has never broken the 4,000-yard mark. (He's thrown for 30+ TDs only once -- when Terrell Owens caught 14 of them.)
• While the Eagles have a deep receiving corps, they lack a true stud to occupy the defense's attention the way Terrell Owens did

Final Thoughts

McNabb's history is one of very high production in terms of fantasy points per game. He's just had a lot of trouble staying on the field for all 16 games. He enters the 2009 season in good health, with a new contract, and with improved talent around him -- both at the skill positions and on the offensive line. Everything is falling into place to give McNabb a chance at a stellar fantasy season. If you think he has a decent chance to stay healthy, you should find him a bargain at his current average draft position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

kremenull:
McNabb has to be feeling very good about his present situation in Philly, but also some definite urgency with the addition of some youthful playmakers, a beefed-up, younger, and more talented o-line to go along with a new contract extension. Knowing that the window of opportunity is closing fast, I believe McNabb senses that this year may be his best shot at a championship with the Eagles given Westbrook's mortality and the possibility that DC Jim Johnson could be nearing the end of his coaching era in Philly as well. Combining all of these factors, I expect to see a very motivated "No. 5" in 2009.

rzrback77:
I have always been a fan of McNabb and really don't know exactly why. Its not the accuracy and even after 10 seasons in the BFL, he still absorbs some huge hits and misses games. He has played in all 16 games only four of the ten seasons. Its not year to year consistency either. Not counting his rookie year, he has finished consecutively at 5, 6, 14, 13, 3, 20, 10, 12, and 7 last year.

I am more confident in his potential for fantasy success in 09 however. I think that with Westbrook's age, there is a chance they stick to the pass pass and pass again pattern. Donovan had 571 passing attempts and I think that he will come close to matching that in 09. His weapons are even better this year. DeSean Jackson is a year wiser, Kevin Curtis is more likely to be ready at season's start, they added Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

Ruffrodys05:
I don't get the whole "window of opportunity closing" argument as a basis for predicting McNabb's production this year. In the end his numbers will be good-to-great based on his performance and the performance of his surrounding talent and the Eagles offense as a whole. Health is involved somewhat too, but I never really worry too much about any players health/injury situation. He'll either get hurt or he won't and I am no good at predicting either based on past instances. If others want to calculate injury possibility into their predictions, so be it, but I'm not going to.

As mentioned before, the talent pool surrounding McNabb on the Eagles this year is pretty impressive and he can't complain about not having the weapons necessary to help him carry this team to a SB title. The Eagles historically spread the ball around a ton to numerous targets (under Reid) and I don't see that changing this year, nor do I see the pass-to-run ratio changing all that much either. Maybe a small drop towards a 50/50 split, but not nearly as much as most Eagles fans would like to see. I predict a split closer to last year....59/41.

O-line: The Eagles offensive line was pretty darn good last year and got considerably better in the off-season. I think McNabb's attempts will remain about the same but his completions will go up due to line play. He'll have more time to throw the ball and will be pressured less, thus more completions. So I'm predicting his comp/att ratio will get considerably better also.

RB situation. It's clear to all of us that Westbrook is McNabb's crutch when he gets in trouble behind the line of scrimmage. In the past, when Westy has been unavailable on game day, the Eagles have not had a complementary back to sub in without missing a beat. This year they do. Either because of lack of talent and the coaching staff altering the game plan, or McNabb just trying to do it all himself, McNabb has struggled in the past when veering away from a "typical" Eagles game plan. I just can't see the Eagles moving away from their typical game plan now that they have (what most everyone in the football community seems to feel is a solid fill-in for Westy) McCoy.

WR situation: The Eagles have arguably the most talent they've ever had at the WR position this year than any other year in McNabb's career. Curtis is looking like he'll be healthy at the start of the season. Jackson is an explosive talent that should see more targets this year. Maclin looks like he'll get plenty of opportunities to produce this year and I expect the Eagles will utilize him as much (or more) than they did with Jackson last year.

TE situation: Celek and Ingram will provide a good number of opportunities in 2-TE sets and will be used heavily at the goal line. A plus for McNabb. The talent level at this position is better than in most previous years. (Goodbye LJ, you've outlasted your welcome here. NO more endzone dropped passes by YOU!!!)

Donovan McNabb Projections