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Spotlight - RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders

Posted on 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Darren McFadden was the fourth overall pick in 2008, and early in the season, appeared poised to have a productive rookie year. He busted out in the second half of week two, rushing 12 times for 143 yards during the half, including a 19-yard touchdown and four 20+ yard runs. (On the game, he had 164 yards on 21 carries.) But McFadden began a bout of turf toe during the game, which slowed him during the rest of the season. His toe injuries (he eventually had one on each foot) rendered his rookie season largely forgettable from a fantasy standpoint. He never rushed more than 46 yards in a game after week two.

Many fantasy owners are optimistic about McFadden's chances to better fulfill his potential in 2009. One of the major reasons for such optimism is his versatility. Even as a rookie, McFadden was used in a variety of ways. He took several direct snaps in the Raiders' version of the Wildcat offense (beginning in week one before Miami popularized the Wildcat trend in week three), and also lined up out wide as a pass receiver and got open deep a few times. The Raiders have continued to line McFadden out up wide in this year's offseason workouts and training camp practices.

McFadden's versatility may be key to a substantially increased workload this season. McFadden touched the ball just 11 times per game last season. He could double that in 2009, although one of the risks in drafting him is that his role in the Oakland offense is currently undefined. Tom Cable has said that he wants to get McFadden the ball more, emphasizing that the offense was more effective last year with McFadden on the field. On the other hand, McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush have all gotten equal reps with the first team in training camp so far, and Fargas is listed atop the depth chart.

While McFadden isn't guaranteed to get the lions' share of the touches in the Raiders' backfield, there may be enough work to go around. The Oakland RBs have accounted for nearly 2,400 yards from scrimmage in each of the past two seasons. The Raiders' offensive line is a good run-blocking unit, and the team boasted a pretty strong rushing attack last season, finishing tenth in both total yards and yards per carry. Even if McFadden gets only about half of the RB workload, he could outperform his current average draft position.

As a runner, McFadden is a one-cut slasher with freaky speed. Once he breaks into the open field, there may not be a more dangerous RB in the league. In order to get into the open field, however, McFadden will have to maintain his balance better after initial contact.

The Raiders' poor passing attack may be a reason for concern, as opposing defenses will key on stopping the run, loading up eight men on the line of scrimmage. Nonetheless, the passing game should improve in 2009 -- if it doesn't improve early in the season with JaMarcus Russell under center, it will improve later in the season with Jeff Garcia under center. Note also that the Raiders racked up impressive stats among their collective RBs last season even without any semblance of a competent passing attack, so an improved passing game may not be essential to McFadden's fantasy success.

There are several reasons to expect McFadden to be inconsistent, however, which reduces his fantasy value. First, the Raiders have three capable running backs, and may go with the hot hand in any given game -- which won't always be McFadden. Second, the Raiders may get behind early in games and end up running the ball less than they would like to. While McFadden should still be active in the passing game, his best fantasy performances will come when the Raiders are able to establish and stay with their ground attack. That won't happen every week.

Positives

• McFadden is completely recovered from the injures that set him back last season
• He is one of the fastest players in the league, and is a versatile weapon, dangerous as a runner, receiver, and Wildcat QB
• He averaged a solid 4.4 yards per carry as a rookie
• Has an enticing fantasy playoff schedule with games against the Broncos and Browns in weeks 15 and 16

Negatives

• May not be a workhorse. He lacks size, and has a history of injuries. (Just last year, he suffered a neck stinger, shoulder injury, and two instances of turf toe)
• It will be easy for the Raiders to limit his carries, since Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are also solid NFL RBs
• The Raiders do not have the kind of reliable passing attack to keep opposing defenses from loading up on the line of scrimmage and keying the run

Final Thoughts

Whether you should target McFadden in your fantasy drafts this year depends on the role you expect him to play in the Raiders' offense this season. To become a fantasy stuff, he must (a) stay healthy enough to play effectively all season, and (b) distance himself from Justin Fargas and Michael Bush at the RB position. He has the potential to do both, but neither is a given. He has showed up to training camp with some extra bulk this season (muscle, not fat), which may help with his durability issues. (Although his toe issues last year had nothing to do with being too frail.) And he has the physical talent to be the team's best player on offense, along with the coach's desire to feature him in a variety of roles. McFadden is therefore a player with outstanding upside potential -- but the risk that he'll be stuck in a three-headed monster at RB, or be slowed by injury again, is keeping his average draft position suppressed. He will likely end up being either a draft day bargain for his fantasy owners, or a disenchanting letdown. At his current ADP (RB21), I think the risk and the potential reward are appropriately balanced.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

travdogg:
I'm a huge McFadden fan. He's likely to end up on any team I draft. His rookie year was bit of a washout, but he's BY FAR the best RB on the Raiders and it sounds like they are realizing that this off season. His only obstacles are being in a RBBC, but that also allows to be available in the 4th round. In McFadden, I see an elite pass catcher, and elite perimeter runner and an above average inside runner. He may or may not get goal line carries, but he'll find the end zone a fair amount regardless. If everything breaks right, I could see him being this year's break out player of the year. I think he could exceed the numbers I'm projecting and I expect those projections to be higher than most.

Phalic0192:
Here is the thing about McFadden. He is extremely quick and fast. His lateral movement isn't amazing, but he makes up for it with being very decisive in his cuts. On Iso plays, he hits the hole whether it is there or not as fast as he can. So, I would like to see some patience from him in this regard and use his vision to set up linebackers and safeties that seem to read him like a book. On the flip side this quality allows him to break long runs with the slightest amount of alley. With his turf toe problem he wasn't able to gain traction with that steel plate and his quickness/acceleration was diminished. To me, the turf toe took away his one quality about him that is elite.

I think McFadden develops into the leader of this team. He can seemingly will himself to do better during big games and motivate his teammates. I can envision a 220-240 carry season for about 1100-1250 yards. Fargas and Bush will get a little over 200 carries between themselves. I just think that McFadden will be the Raiders only consistent threat on offense and even Tom Cable can realize it. I think McFadden gets about 7 total TDs. I am just a little worried about the Raider franchise and its ability to drain talent for long periods of time. So my homerism says to me that McFadden could be a top 6 RB when all is said and done. But, I think he finishes around RB16 or so.

Jon_Moore:
McFadden only averaged 4 yards a carry or more in 4 out of 13 games played. He only broke 100 yards rushing once in those 13 games. I realize he only got 20 carries one time, but the 2 combined factors screams inconsistency. The Raiders are a bad offensive team, and I don't see too many reasons to expect great things out of them this season. JaMarcus Russell hasn't shown he can be a good quarterback at this level. They drafted Hayward-Bey in the 1st round, but is he going to be good enough to keep defenses honest? Then you have to be concerned about competition for touches from both Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Fargas has been a very fine football player, and I don't see him just up and disappearing, and Bush had his moments.

jurb26:
I'm a huge McFadden fan and can't wait to see this guy run fully healthy in the NFL. Will that be this year? I don't know. Turf toe scares the daylights out of me. It sounds as though McFadden has been taking the proper precautions this off-season so I'm optimistic. But then there is the concern of him playing in Oakland. Well there could be a silver lining to that (no pun intended) as crazy Al my instruct the coaching staff to force feed the ball to his lead horse. Ah, but we also have Russell at QB. Well, this seems to be the make or break year for Russell and I'm glad to see Oak took matters into their own hands by bringing in Garcia for insurance. Even knowing all these concerns I'm very bullish on McFadden this year. Oak has proven the ability to run the ball despite loosing games and otherwise being an inept football team. McFadden has proven to be a versatile weapon and great at catching the ball out of the back field. So I think as long as he is on the field he will get his fair share of opportunities in 2009.

Darren McFadden Projections