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Spotlight - RB LeRon McClain, Baltimore Ravens

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Last year the Baltimore Ravens led the league in rushing attempts with 592 attempts, 32 more than the Atlanta Falcons. The three-headed trio of veteran Willis McGahee, rookie Ray Rice and fullback / halfback Le'Ron McClain combined for 509 of those carries, yet none of them had even half of the rushing attempts. What lies ahead for 2009?

Let's start by looking at each running back individually, starting with the veteran McGahee. McGahee is in the final season of a big contract that he signed several years back, and that is one of the biggest reasons that he remains a Raven today. He accounts for roughly $5 Million against the salary cap due to his signing bonus from 2007 regardless if he remains in Baltimore or not, so he is virtually un-cuttable and untradeable due to his salary, but he does have some gas left in the tank as evidenced by his 3.9 yards per carry (YPC) average and seven scores last year.

As for Le'Ron McClain, offensive coordinator Cam Cameron discovered that he was a tailback in a fullback's body last preseason and decided that McClain needed to get more involved in the offense, especially as a power rusher. McClain displayed that power all year, finishing the season as the leading Raven in the carries category with 232 along with 10 touchdowns. McClain was undrafted in most fantasy drafts prior to Week 1 and he was a big surprise (as their always are) last fantasy season when he filled in for McGahee and an ineffective Ray Rice in the season opener with 19 carries and 86 yards against the Bengals.

The third back of the trio is second-year player Ray Rice. Rice had the opportunity last year to grab a stranglehold on the lead back role when McGahee was unavailable in Week 1, yet he had troubles holding onto the ball and was eventually displaced by McClain. Rice has since turned the corner and looks to be the heir apparent to the feature RB role for Baltimore which could be his job as early as Week 1. Rice had the fewest regular season carries in 2008 of the three (107) but had the best YPC average with 4.2 yards per try. He also led all three running backs in receptions with 33, compared to McGahee's 24 and McClain's 19. The biggest deficit on the stat line for Rice was his giant zero in the touchdown column, a big concern in both PPR and non-PPR leagues.

Positives

• Baltimore is a run first, defense second, pass last type of team. With over 590 team rushes and over 500 of them going to the top three RBs, there will be plenty of work to go around, even if the total carries declines some for 2009
• All three backs have versatility beyond their allegedly defined roles. Rice, McGahee and McClain combined for 76 receptions with each getting at least 19 last season
• The head coach (John Harbaugh) and OC Cam Cameron remains in place for Baltimore after a successful season for the Ravens that put them in the AFC Championship Game last January. Running the ball early and often will likely be a staple of the Ravens' offense again this year

Negatives

• Three backs in the backfield can be a coaches' dream but it makes for a fantasy nightmare. Who will get the lion's share of the workload each week? It was impossible to predict last year, and 2009 might not be much better
• Ray Rice is not a proven feature back, Willis McGahee sounds like a disgruntled veteran looking to get out of Baltimore, and McClain's production could be anywhere from double-digit scores to a glorified fullback
• Joe Flacco got great news in that Derrick Mason is returning, which will only help the passing game. If Flacco is more comfortable in his second year, he may throw more and reduce the number of rushing attempts

Final Thoughts

This is a very tricky situation to say the least. I'll do my best to give a recommendation as to how to handle this trio from a fantasy perspective, but first here are my thoughts on how 2009 will go. Cam Cameron is smart enough to know that he does need at least two RBs to run this offense. Cameron will likely call a few more passes a game in Flacco's second season, but even if the number of carries goes down for Baltimore by 10%, that would still mean 525+ carries for all three. To put that in perspective, only Atlanta (560) had more than 525 carries last year aside from the Ravens, so it is still a giant total. Adding to this are the 76 catches, which would likely go up if Flacco throws a bit more. So let's start by saying 600 touches for all three backs in 2009 and then start to slice them up.

Ray Rice will be the "starter" for Baltimore, which likely means that he will get most of the touches on a per-game basis. He won't be a feature back, though, so get that thought out of your head right now. Rice only had 140 touches last year -- about nine a game -- so 20+ a week would be way too much. I would expect 225-250 carries and 35-40 receptions are reasonable numbers, which still leaves a large amount for both McGahee and McClain. McGahee is clearly on the outs in Baltimore, but the Ravens have to see how ready Rice is to either become their featured back in 2010 or if they need a complimentary back to help him next year. For now I expect McGahee to collect 175-200 carries and 20-25 receptions for the Ravens this season. So what does that leave for McClain? The simple math gives about 15-20 catches and 80-110 rushes for McClain, a drop-off from last year for certain. His touchdowns are likely to go down, but not as dramatically.

The last point to make is that if you plan on going after the Ravens' ground game this year (and you should), 2-3 backs will have decent to good fantasy numbers this year. The question might remain as to who to play each week, but if Rice grabs hold of the lead back role it might become much clearer. This is a situation that has to be watched diligently all through the preseason to get extra insight on how the carries are given out. Also take note that if there is an injury to Rice or McGahee, the entire workload that was projected for either may not be split evenly between the other back and McClain, nor is it out of the realm of possibility that another back (such as Cedric Peerman) could step up to make another trio. From a fantasy draft perspective, grabbing Rice is the likeliest best bet in Round 6 or so and then possibly follow up with McClain later in your draft. Also be aware that come fantasy playoff time the Ravens face both Chicago (Week 15) and Minnesota (Week 16), historically very good run game defenses.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
The Ravens offensive players are very difficult to project in 09. The FBG boards are strong in their support of Ray Rice coming out as the RB leader, but even considering how fast things change, I have a hard time buying this transition for this year. A look at last year's stats

McClain 233 rushes for 902 yards 3.9 ypc 30 targets 19 catches 123 yards 6.5 ypc and 11 TDs
McGahee 170 rushes for 671 yards 3.9 ypc 32 targets 24 catches 173 yards 7.2 ypc and 7 TDs
Ray Rice 107 rushes for 454 yards 4.2 ypc 43 targets 33 catches 273 yards 8.3 ypc and 0 TDs

The statistics indicate that the Ravens clearly favored the other two over Rice at the goal line and in most situations. Rice got more opportunities in the passing situations and that should continue this year. I see no reason to think that the Ravens will remove what was their bread and butter in the red zone. I also see that the other two were as effective running the ball and will have a role, even if it is reduced. In dynasty, now is the time to act in regards to Rice, but I just don't see where he should be a target in redrafts. The ADPs for the three include Rice at RB36 and 95 overall, McGahee at RB38 and 99 overall and McClain (who has been moved to FB) at RB44 and 111 overall.

I think that their RB is also fairly indicative of expectations. If you have confidence that one of the three will lead the way in 09, then by all means pull the trigger as you will achieve significant value. I just see a three headed RBBC with McClain getting a lot of short yardage and goal line opportunities.

Todem:
2010 will be the year of Ray Rice who is a very nice player. I enjoyed watching him at Rutgers. However I also feel McGahee has plenty to prove. After coming off a solid top 10 finish in 2008 he battled injuries all year and never got going. He has worked extremely hard this off-season and is said to be in prime condition. I think it will show in the pre-season and I can see McGahee winning the job and having a great year and representing tremendous value at his current ADP.

Tigerbot Hesh:
I think something has to happen to take McGahee out of the picture before I consider Rice. Unless they add another FB, McClain will be blocking on some of those goal line carries for whomever is playing RB.

It's really a tough call on Rice right now. He's getting so much hype, I'm starting to get scared off of him based on where I would have to draft him. It might be cheaper to let him pass and grab McGahee later on in the draft.

sspunisher:
First of all everyone forgets that Lorenzo Neal was playing FB last year with the Ravens. Now I didn't watch any Ravens games last year so I'm not sure if they were playing mostly Singleback or if they were playing out of an I-Formation, but the fact that Lorenzo Neal was there gave the Ravens the luxury of moving McClain to HB.

Now that Neal has moved on to Oakland, they don't have the luxury of the best blocking FB in the league. So McClain and the extra pounds he added in offseason are moving back to FB, bank on it.

As for Rice vs McGahee, that one is easy. McGahee is only around b/c of his contract. He's gone in 2010 you can count on it. The Ravens are in a similar situation that the Cowboys were in a couple years ago. They had a stud in Marion Barber, and Julius was clearly ineffective, but there was no one worth signing, no one willing to trade, and releasing him would put way too many carries on Barber's legs. So they let him play out his contract alongside Barber for one more year and then got rid of him and drafted Felix in the draft after the season was over.

LeRon McClain Projections