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Spotlight - WR Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 7/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

Vince Neil once said, "Now it's time for change, nothing stays the same, now it's time for change." The uninitiated might think he was talking about the 2009 offseason for the Denver Broncos. Truer words might have never been spoken, and Pat Bowlen must have been listening because he decided not only to get rid of long time friend and head coach Mike Shanahan but he also allowed franchise QB Jay Cutler to be traded to the Chicago Bears. These moves apparently didn't sit very well with Brandon Marshall and after he met with his owner and new head coach Marshall made it clear that he no longer felt wanted in Denver -- and wanted out.

Last season Brandon Marshall was the most targeted wide receiver in the league (181) and his star was rising on the national scene. However, in 2009 things are different as Marshall is seen as a malcontent and a trouble maker because of repeated run-ins with the law and trade demands after a meeting with Broncos' owner Pat Bowlen.

Now with a new quarterback, a new head coach, and a new offense, what becomes of Brandon Marshall? His current ADP is WR 14, but is he overvalued or undervalued in fantasy circles? Let's take a closer look at Brandon Marshall's 2009 prospects.

Questions about Brandon coming into 2009:

Will Marshall hold out? Recently Brandon Marshall commented in an interview at the ESPYs on July 15. "Right now I'm obligated, I'm under contract...It's $14,000 a day if i miss," Marshall said. "I'm not stupid. So I will be there." Speculation about Marshall has run rampant within NFL circles. Some believe that he will report on time, while others think he may hold out for all of training camp and perhaps even longer. Marshall is supposed to report to Dove Valley on July 27th so trainers can examine his hip. Training camp starts on the 31st so it won't be long until we get a better feeling about Marshall's role with the team in 2009.

Can he develop good on-field chemistry with Kyle Orton? Former Bears receiver (and current Broncos receiver) Brandon Lloyd stated that Orton had very catchable passes -- and Lloyd should know, he's been around the block a time or two. There is no reason to think that Marshall and Orton can't develop chemistry, it will just take time. If Marshall stays away from training camp, or is unable to practice fully because of his hip injury then there may be cause for concern. A quarterback needs to develop timing with his receivers and that takes repetition. Orton doesn't have the strongest arm, so it may be frustrating to Marshall when he consistently under throws him on deep routes. However, the two could work together and get comfortable on underneath routes where Marshall can be especially dangerous in this offense.

How will he be used in Josh McDaniels' offense? If Eddie Royal is seen as the "Wes Welker" of Denver, then that means Marshall is the Mile High City's version of Randy Moss. The opportunity is there for Marshall to continue to be a big play threat -- and a big part -- of the Broncos offense. New quarterback Kyle Orton is no Tom Brady, but he may do a good impression of Matt Cassel ---so Marshall's numbers might be very similar to the numbers put up by Moss in 2008. Even though Welker had 42 more receptions than Moss last year, it was Moss who led the Patriots receivers in fantasy points scored because of his 11 receiving touchdowns. Moss was targeted 126 times in 2008, but only managed to haul in 69 of those passes. We expect Marshall to be targeted around the same amount this year, but he could convert a few more into receptions while scoring a few less touchdowns.

Can he stay healthy, and stay out of trouble with the law? These are the million dollar questions surrounding Brandon Marshall seemingly every year. Depending on the labor agreement, 2009 could basically be a contract year for Marshall -- and he could be auditioning for other teams all season long. Logic would dictate that Marshall would straighten out his personal life (he has reportedly done so) and one would think his training regimen would be better than ever. This offseason Marshall has been working with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Greg Jennings in order to improve his game. He has also been getting tips from former NFL-great Jerry Rice. All signs are pointing to Marshall bringing his "A" game this year, and if he can stay out of trouble with the law he could get a very big contract -- from Denver or another team -- after the season.

Will he lead the league in dropped passes again in 2009? Marshall led the league with 18 dropped passes in 2008, but has reportedly been working on his concentration this offseason. He may not lead the league again, but it's a safe bet to that Marshall will be like Terrell Owens (he is Baby T.O. after all) and drop a few too many easy ones during the season. When you're leading the league in targets you have an easier chance of leading the league in dropped passes. We expect Marshall's targets to go down considerably this year, and thus his drops should decrease as well.

Positives

• Great "my ball" mentality, especially in the red zone
• Strong receiver with good run after the catch ability
• Fierce competitor that wants the ball in crunch time

Negatives

• Will drop a lot of passes
• Is recovering from hip surgery
• Gets in trouble with the law frequently

Final Thoughts

The Broncos have a new offense this year, but Brandon Marshall could still be a fantasy force in Denver. If he doesn't hold out very long (or at all) it should help him develop a good chemistry with new quarterback Kyle Orton. While Orton may not be able to target him deep consistently Marshall will be a factor on underneath routes where he can use his strength and run after the catch ability to rack up yards. In order to make the most out of what could be a contract year Marshall will have to stay healthy and stay off of the police blotter. Early indications are that he is motivated to be the best he can be both on and off the field. It's likely that he could be targeted 50 times less in 2009, plus he will have some heart breaking drops along the way. With that in mind proceed with caution when considering drafting Marshall for your fantasy squad in 2009.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

MAC_32:
Marshall seems to only have off the field problems during the offseason, when he doesn't have anything else to do. In season his slate is clean as far as I know so if he's not dinged for his recent episodes I don't see any issues hitting him this season.

Orton's no Cutler, but Denver's defense is still awful and they will have to throw more than they'd like to win. His upside's a little lower with Orton under center, but Marshall will still get his. I'm assuming he's still a Bronco come opening day and if that's the case at his current rate along side guys like Braylon, Vincent Jackson, Housh, among others and behind guys like TO and Colston I'm buying.

bigmiiiike:
Pluses for this year (versus '08):
- McDaniels was quite the passing game architect in NE, could be good news for the play calling in Denver
- O-Line should continue to get better
- Another year under his belt, as good as he is, he's still a young, developing WR

Minuses for this year (versus '08):
- Exit Cutler, enter Orton
- Knowshon Moreno, Buckhaulter, and Lamont Jordan - The DEN backfield goes from Peyton Hillis to these three, which gives McDaniels a lot to work with if he decides he wants to grind it out.

On the whole, the minuses pretty strongly outweigh the pluses. I think Marshall will show flashes of brilliance, but the passing O just won't enable him to put up elite numbers. He'll be very good, but I see his ceiling in the WR 8-10 range, with a likely finish around WR15:

travdogg:
Marshall is talented, but I'm starting to wonder if he's a special talent or simply a good talent who benefited from a special situation. I don't think he has Moss' big play ability or Fitz's body control and he seems to have a problem with drops though that could be because of his arm injury last off season.

I really think both Cutler and Marshall may have already peaked. they are going to miss each other and perhaps as importantly miss Mike Shanahan.

Marshall is talented but 2 of the big reasons he was as productive as he was were Cutler and Shanny. With them gone, I could easily see Marshall becoming a bit of an underachiever ala Braylon Edwards last season.

Add to that his off field woes and his uncertain playing situation and I'm staying away. Far away.

Brandon Marshall Projections