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Spotlight - QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Posted on 8/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

For as many years as I've been writing Player Spotlights, Peyton Manning is one of the easiest, and hardest, players to profile each year. He's easy to write up because of his consistency and his excellence. He's hard because the longevity of his greatness now sets a baseline that is hard to argue against in either direction. In other words, you know what you're getting with Peyton Manning.

So what's changed for Manning in 2009? Luckily, a lot less than first appeared.

New Head Coach, but NOT new assistants -- Tony Dungy retired, which is a loss. But Jim Caldwell is a long-time Colts assistant and was already in place as Dungy's eventual successor. This move is analogous to when George Seifert took over for Bill Walsh in San Francisco. Caldwell isn't going to ruffle feathers, and he's not going to change the way the offense comports itself. The great news is that long-time OC Tom Moore and OL Coach Harvey Mudd decided to return after initially deciding to retire. Moore is the only OC Manning has ever known, and his return brings continuity and comfort to fantasy owners looking to bet on Manning again in 2009.

Marvin Harrison is gone -- Manning and Harrison formed one of the best QB/WR tandems in NFL history, but Harrison was past his prime. This decision has been a long time coming, and GM Bill Polian is always looking three or four steps down the line. Anthony Gonzalez is an experienced 3rd year receiver ready to start opposite All Pro Reggie Wayne. And Pierre Garcon has been mentioned by Polian as the teams' most improved player. The Colts have a great TE in Dallas Clark, and RBs that know how to catch the ball. Losing Harrison in his prime would've hurt, losing Harrison in his twilight may by beneficial.

Donald Brown joins the RB stable -- The Colts are at their best when they have a dangerous running game. Manning is so good, and so deadly that opposing defenses need to respect the Colts rushing attack in order to not overplay the pass. While Joseph Addai is a talent, his inability to stay healthy is a concern. But the addition of 1st rounder Donald Brown should allay those concerns. Brown has the talent to be a full-time workhorse, and comes into the league already a polished receiver.

Jeff Saturday is healthy -- The Colts may make some alterations at offensive guard, but far more important is the return of C Jeff Saturday. Saturday is the QB of the O-line and having him back is akin to signing a dominant free agent.

Manning is healthy, for real this time -- Manning tried to put on a good face last year in camp, insisting his knee scope wasn't a big deal. But looking back, it's clear his knee was an impediment, particularly early in the year because Manning (a perfectionist) didn't have the chance to prepare as intently as he usually does. This year, no such problem.

So what's really changed? Not much! Which is why it's illogical to predict anything short of another 4,000-yard, 26-30 TD season.

Positives

• Manning is on the fast track to the Hall of Fame, and is as durable (176 consecutive games played) as he is talented
• The Colts organizational stability greatly reduces the risk of forecasting Manning or the other offensive contributors
• Manning enters training camp healthy and focused, unlike last season when he was rehabbing his knee

Negatives

• Anthony Gonzalez didn't emerge last year as many hoped, and the Colts really need him to become a difference maker this season
• Manning will cost you a 2nd round pick in most leagues, and many owners are uncomfortable building a roster in that way
• Tony Dungy's retirement shouldn't be a big deal, but one can never underestimate the impact someone of his ilk has on an organization from top to bottom

Final Thoughts

Peyton Manning is healthier than he was a season ago, has his best interior lineman back, still has elite players at the WR1 and TE positions, and is coming off a fairly typical Manning season. When your logical baseline is 3,900-4,000 yards and 25-27 TDs; you're a fantasy star. There's no reason to think Manning isn't worth his current ADP, and certainly has the opportunity to throw for 4,200+ yards and 30+ TDs with ease.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

SexyRexy:
I think that last year's down season was largely due to his knee problems, he seemed good as new in the 2nd half (16 TD passes in 8g IIRC don't know the yardage).

bigmiiike:
I think Dungy's absence might actually help Manning's fantasy stats. I remember countless times in the Dungy-era Manning would drive the Colts down inside the 10 and then they'd go with three straight running plays and kick a field goal on 4th and 2. Dungy played things a little too close to the vest, and while Manning has had some very good years, we've all seen his potential when he had 49 TDs, and he's never come close to that production since. I think this could be a year where Peyton breaks free from his very good, but almost boring 4000 and 28 (at least for him), and kicks it up to 4350 and 34 TDs

djcolts:
I think there is more to like than not like for Peyton's fantasy prospects compared to most other seasons:

1. I think the combination of a significantly more talented DT rotation and a more aggressive defense approach with the new D coordinator will help the defense get more stops - and the Colts will get more possessions.

2. I think the O Line basically hit rock bottom last season - and it is unlikely to be worse than last season - especically if LG Ryan Lilja plays.

3. I think losing Marvin Harrison is going to be addition by subtraction. Anthony Gonzalez outplayed Marvin by a significant margin last season - and I think Peyton hurt himself last season by having to throw the ball to Marvin to keep him happy when it wasn't particularly effective offense (it was tough to watch Peyton forcing 8 yard curls to Marvin when the opposing D nearly picked the ball off time after time).

4. Peyton at this time is healthy and there won't likely be struggles with injury the first five games of this season, like last season.

Peyton Manning Projections