All Spotlights • Eli Manning Player Page • NYG Projections • QB Projections • QB Rankings • NYG Team Report

Spotlight - QB Eli Manning, New York Giants

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

To say that Eli Manning is a competent NFL quarterback is true and beyond reproach as Manning has proven to be worthy of an NFL starting gig. There are two separate questions to tackle in this spotlight however in regards to Eli Manning's FANTASY prospects:

1) Is Eli Manning capable of transcending the 'decent' starting quarterback label to join the likes of Drew Brees, brother Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, etc. as a consistently strong fantasy starter?

2) Will the Giants simply not pass enough in 2009 to enable Eli Manning to be anything else than a fantasy afterthought?

Answering those two questions will go a long way towards breaking down Eli Manning for both the upcoming season and into the future.

Question #1

1) Is Eli Manning capable of transcending the 'decent' starting quarterback label and join the likes of Drew Brees, brother Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, etc. as a consistently strong fantasy starter?

When looking at the true elite NFL quarterbacks, each of them has been able to put up big statistics on a consistent basis. They have the confidence of their offensive coordinators and head coaches to throw the ball 40 times per game and have a swagger about them that is impossible to miss. Eli Manning on the other hand simply does not seem to have the same swagger that the other quarterbacks have. Winning the Super Bowl help to elevate the opinion of him amongst the masses but really, last year, he once again put up decent but not great numbers.

In each of the past three seasons, Manning has finished as a decent fantasy starter. His yearly statistics have been consistent with almost identical numbers during that span... Check it out...

2006: 3244 passing yards and 24 touchdown passes
2007: 3336 passing yards and 23 touchdown passes
2008: 3238 passing yards and 21 touchdown passes

You do not see consistency like that from the quarterback position very often but really, those numbers are not very exciting to a fantasy football owner.

Last season, Manning started like gangbusters; with three 260+ passing yard efforts in the first four games. He was in fact on pace for 4150+ passing yards. However, after that the wheels fell off in terms of passing yardage. He passed for just 2206 total yards in the final twelve games and tossed just 15 touchdowns. In ten of those final twelve games, he failed to pass for at least 200 yards and only threw for multiple touchdowns in three of those games. He was very disappointing in fantasy circles and seemed to regress in terms of fantasy production throughout the 2nd half of 2008.

Manning does not seem to have the drive to emerge as a legitimate fantasy weapon. He is happy to stay within the offense and does not have that extra 'wow' factor that turn good quarterbacks into great ones. He has averaged 520 passing attempts since 2005 but simply has not passed for enough yards or thrown enough touchdowns to elevate into the top tiers at the position.

Perhaps the most disturbing statistic when breaking down Manning's ability is his mediocre yards-per-attempt career stats. He averaged just 6.4 YPA throughout his career and has never finished a season higher than 6.8. Part of that is his questionable accuracy and another part of that is his inability to throw the deep ball on a consistent basis. The top NFL quarterbacks usually will finish with at least 7.5 YPA and 65% completion percentage throughout the season, numbers that Manning has never really achieved throughout his entire career. It really does seem like 'what you see is what you get' when it comes to Manning going forward.

Question #2

2) Will the Giants simply not pass enough in 2009 to enable Eli Manning to be anything else than a fantasy afterthought?

If the answers to Question #1 are not enough to scare you heading into this season, there are other reasons to be hesitant about Manning for the 2009 campaign. The Giants have one of the strongest rushing attacks in the entire NFL. So dominant in fact that there will be games the Giants simply do not have to pass in to win the game. Manning averaged less than 30 passing attempts last season and it is not likely the Giants will pass more in 2009.

The Giants offensive line is bruising and dominant in the running game. Add to that the bruising, physical nature of RB Brandon Jacobs and the Giants will feature a strong 'ground-and-pound' approach once again.

To make matters worse in regards to the Giants potential passing prowess this season, the receiving corps in New York looks like one of the weaker groups in all the NFL. With the legal woes of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer no longer on the squad, there are serious question marks at the receiver position in New York. This is a transitional period at receiver right now in New York and while the young players have some upside, it appears as if this year will be a frustrating one as some of the young kids learn on the fly.

Positives

• Experienced quarterback with a Super Bowl under his belt
• Knows how to play within the offensive scheme
• Doesn't key on one receiver and can spread the ball around

Negatives

• Does not have the accuracy you like to see out of an elite quarterback
• The Giants receiving corps is in a transitional state
• The Giants are first and foremost a rushing team and Manning won't get tons of opportunities for big weeks

Final Thoughts

The Giants best chance of success in 2009 is to rely on their strong defense and a punishing rushing attack. The coaching staff knows it, the players know it and the opposition is going to know it. Eli Manning is a great caretaker for this offense. He is a strong, veteran presence on the field now, is steady, not easily rattled and should help the Giants return to the playoffs once again this year. When breaking him down as a football player only, it's clear he is a good player in the right place in New York. However, when breaking down his fantasy chances in 2009, it's hard to see any reason to select him inside the top-20 at the position this year. There are other players with much greater upside and while he is likely to play all 16 games and at the end of the season, put up similar numbers to the previous years, his game-by-game statistics just will not be good enough to earn wins for fantasy owners.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

MAC_32:
Uninteresting backup fantasy QB, he doesn't command much of a price but I'd rather take a shot on a Garrard or Orton as a backup because I believe they have more upside.

rzrback77:
Did this one without looking at any of the projection posts as I saw that Blackjacks was the last poster...

Eli Manning is the perfect safe QB2 to take to back-up somebody you might be a little concerned about, say Warner, McNabb, Schaub, or even Favre. He has to play in a windy tough to throw in home stadium and he is not thought to be a great QB. The you add in his receivers and it seems like an easy middle off the road QB. The deal is that he almost always plays and he is decent and you can get him at a discount.

Eli Manning has finished as the QB5, QB11, QB14, and QB13 over the previous four seasons, averaging almost 3400 yards and 23 TDs. He rarely has huge games because the Giants have a great running offense and a great defense, but he is good for moderate production game by game.

This season his current ADP is QB15 and 105 overall and I believe that unless the Giants sign a veteran WR, his ADP may drop further closer to the regular season.

Blackjacks:
Eli's end of the year stats have actually been very consistant.

Even in a very run orientated offense last year and while losing his best (and really only) wr Eli still put up 3200+ and 22 td's

This year I have a feeling they might have to do a little more passing for a couple of reasons

*** Don't trust Jacobs to stay healthy and Bradshaw isn;t the same back Ward was last year
*** A lot of WRs at his disposal (maybe not great but getting better)
*** I don't think NYG will be as good as last year and always playign witht he lead, therefore allowing Eli to get some trash yards and scores

Eli Manning Projections