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Spotlight - RB Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Marshawn Lynch has quietly compiled two strong seasons, but playing in Buffalo has kept him out of the fantasy spotlight to a certain degree. Lynch ranked as the 15th and 12th fantasy RB in his first two seasons in the league, but he ranked 10th in total fantasy points scored and 12th in fantasy ppg (13.0) in that time. He's averaged 94.1 yards from scrimmage and 0.57 TD per game over his brief career. He's scored double digit fantasy points 18 times in 28 games played. He even sports a career 139.6 passer rating for his one passing play (for a TD). Even though his overall numbers were better last season, he ranked lower for fantasy purposes. He was rewarded for his effort with a selection to the Pro Bowl. On the surface, all should be rosy for this gutsy and hard-nosed running back.

However, things are more troubling than what appears on the surface. Lynch will start the season by serving a three-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy stemming from a misdemeanor gun charge (unless it somehow gets reduced on appeal). That could open the door for teammates Fred Jackson and newly acquired Dominic Rhodes to get a fast start and could reduce Lynch's role once he comes back. There have been recent reports speculating that Jackson and Rhodes could see a more active role in the offense regardless in an effort to keep Lynch fresh throughout the season.

Even if Lynch saw a slight decrease in touches (he's averaged 21 touches a game over his career and almost the same as a starter in college), he seems primed for another solid season. He should benefit from having more room to ramble now that Terrell Owens has been added to the receiving corps. Up until now, defenses have been able to double cover Lee Evans and stack the line in an effort to thwart Lynch. That certainly will be much more difficult with Owens in the mix, and there should consistently be at least one player off of the line of scrimmage for Lynch this year.

While Buffalo has been a middle of the road team record wise in recent seasons, the Bills have produced a Top 20 fantasy running back in 16 of the past 20 years:

2008 -- Marshawn Lynch 15
2007 -- Marshawn Lynch 12
2006 -- Willis McGahee 26
2005 -- Willis McGahee 13
2004 -- Willis McGahee 9
2003 -- Travis Henry 11
2002 -- Travis Henry 8
2001 -- Travis Henry 28
2000 -- Shawn Bryson 31
1999 -- Jonathan Linton 25
1998 -- Antowain Smith 16
1997 -- Antowain Smith 19
1996 -- Thurman Thomas 11
1995 -- Thurman Thomas 17
1994 -- Thurman Thomas 7
1993 -- Thurman Thomas 3
1992 -- Thurman Thomas 2
1991 -- Thurman Thomas 2
1990 -- Thurman Thomas 2
1989 -- Thurman Thomas 2

Lynch's issues have been more off-the-field related than due to poor performance on the field. Those have included sexual assault allegations (no charges filed), a hit and run accident (criminal charges avoided), potential drug possession in a police stop (no drug-related charges filed), and pleading guilty to the misdemeanor gun charge (which earned him his suspension). That's a fair amount of off-field activity for someone only in the league for to seasons. It's also a bit of a coincidence that Lynch has had some similar off-field issues that have paralleled the plight of Travis Henry.

Jackson and Rhodes proved to be capable backups last year, ranking 41st and 26th in terms of fantasy RB rankings. However, the Bills as a team rank 17th in terms of fantasy RB production, and if those two do see an increased role, that could spell trouble for Lynch's fantasy production. The Bills did not have a huge RB pie to divvy up, so cutting it into multiple slices could pose problematic.

In three career games filling in for Lynch, Fred Jackson has rushed for 136, 82, and 115 yards with a 5.7 ypc. Lynch better hope that Jackson does not set the world on fire coming out of the gate (with games against NE, TB, and NO).

Positives

• Has been very productive to date and with improvements on offense should see more running room
• Emerged as a dual offensive threat, catching 47 receptions a year ago (ninth best in the league).as a safety valve out of the backfield
• At 23, Lynch is still young enough to be dynamic and grow but has had two years of seasoning to adapt and adjust to the NFL game

Negatives

• All but assured of missing the first three games of the season, which obviously will have a negative impact on his year-end totals
• Has had a plethora of off-field issues which could set Lynch up for future suspensions if he doesn't get his personal life in order and his act together
• Could see fewer touches this year if Jackson and Rhodes can be productive spelling Lynch or if they start the year hot while Lynch is suspended

Final Thoughts

If Lynch were to get the same workload and perform at the same level as his career averages to date, he'd score 169 points over a 13-game season. Last season, that would have ranked in a tie for the 19th best fantasy RB. That's exactly where his average draft position is currently, so the suspension discount appears to be factored in appropriately in terms of draft status.

However, the question becomes whether or not Lynch automatically will inherit the same workload upon his return or if the other backs will eat into his workload. With Jackson having been very productive and Rhodes a seasoned veteran, chances are that Lynch could lose a few touches here and there.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
I am more than a little antsy about drafting Marshawn Lynch in 09. He has that three game suspension for the beginning of the season, so you know that he will miss almost a fourth of the regular fantasy season. He is listed at 5-10 and 223 which seems plenty big for a power back and yet there have been stories out that he has bulked up to 230. I am not a huge fan of additional weight to add power, especially on guys that are not small to begin with.

Lynch missed one game last season and three games in his rookie season, so you might lose more than the known three game suspension. He averaged 21.5 carries per game as a rookie, inlcuding nine games of greater than 20 carries and never fewer than 18. However last season, he averaged 16.7 carries per game and only had four games with greater than 20 carries and went as low as nine carries, as Fred Jackson got more involved in the offense.

The Bills added Terrell Owens in the off-season so there is a likelihood that they will attempt to throw more. You add in the suspension, the abilities of Fred Jackson, the potential for more passing, and I just see risk associated with Marshawn Lynch, even at his current ADP of RB 19 and 38 overall. I would definitely encoourage the drafting of Jackson as a hand-cuff to Lynch.

perry147:
Marshawn Lynch is one of the more perplexing players to try to predict this year.

He is facing a three game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Although many predict this will be reduced down to two games which would be a plus this is something that needs to knock his value a little on draft day. Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.

In his rookie year he was not much part of the passing game, but last year as predicted he was more involved in the passing game catching 47 balls - this is important to note in PPR leagues and gives him some extra value in that league format.

Fred Jackson (ML's backup) is definitely someone you need to draft if selecting ML, the Bills rewarded Jackson with a contract extension this offseason which shows that the organization does have faith in the undrafted backup after he has filled in for ML when he was injured last year and the year before; Jackson averaged ten touches per game last season and had 37 receptions.

With all of these factors taken into consideration predicting ML's production next season is going to be tricky, but if he falls low enough in the draft you can get a RB who can produce at a cheap price.

Choke:
Lynch is good enough that I know that he wont get anything less then 60% of all RB carries.

280-1115-4.0-7 -- 18-184-10.2-0 (rook)
250-1036-4.1-8 -- 47-300-6.2-1 (soph)

Not too damn bad at all considering he plays for the Bills.

bigmiiiike:
Don't sleep on how bad the Bills' O-Line will be this year, probably the worst in the league. I don't care if they did add TO, Lynch won't have any holes to run through. It'll be a long year for Lynch owners, especially if his suspension stays at 3 games.

Marshawn Lynch Projections