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Spotlight - RB Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

In fantasy football, it's not always about filling your roster with stars. If you play in a competitive league, you're going to have to fight and claw for incremental value throughout your roster. That means taking a guy that you fully expect to be a middling option, but recognizing that he is likely to be a better bye week fill in or injury substitute than the other options left on the board. Jamal Lewis may be one of those players this year.

I view Jamal Lewis as one of the least compelling 'starting' RBs in the league and forecast him as RB29 currently. But his ADP is RB35 and he's going in the same range as Felix Jones, Julius Jones and Cedric Benson. I probably would rather have Jamal Lewis than any of those other guys, for a number of reasons.

1) He's never finished worse than RB25 in a season -- The big bruiser from the University of Tennessee finished 25th last year yet is being drafted RB35 this year; you're not risking a lot and are getting all of the upside of a resurgence

2) New head coach Eric Mangini has a history with veteran backs -- Thomas Jones was a pedestrian yardage accumulator for a few years before Eric Mangini got a hold of him in New York. Last season he ended up leading the AFC in rushing and scored 15 TDs on his way to a 5th place fantasy finish. No one saw that coming. This year Eric Mangini brings his same view on ball control to the Cleveland Browns. I'm not expecting Lewis to pull a Thomas Jones, but stranger things have happened

3) The Browns offensive line has talent -- The Browns offensive line is better than people give it credit for, with Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach anchoring the left side. If new OL coach George Warhop does his job, Lewis should have some room to run

4) Cleveland faces a cake schedule in the key playoff weeks (15-17) -- @Kansas City, home against Oakland and home against Jacksonville. If that isn't a recipe for some late season heroics, I don't know what is

I realize this isn't the most convincing argument ever, nor is it intended to be. As I said, I think Lewis is the 29th best runner on draft boards this year. But if you can grab him in the middle of your draft for depth, and follow that up with an end game pickup of rookie James Davis (who looks great in the preseason and could push for playing time sooner than people realize), you're capturing a Top 25 outcome for RB35 prices.

Positives

• Lewis is a proven veteran back with seven 1,000-yard seasons in eight years (including a 2,000-yard season)
• New head coach Eric Mangini made great use of Thomas Jones in New York, arguably a back with similar tools and pedigree
• Lewis is a forgotten man this year, and is being drafted RB35 on average despite never finishing worse than RB25

Negatives

• Lewis is an average talent at this point, scoring single digit rushing TDs in all but one season, and offering very little as a receiver
• Lewis has finished RB25 three of the last five years and RB16 another season
• Some fantasy owners prefer to roll the dice on high risk/high upside breakout candidates with their backup picks, Lewis clearly is more of a low risk/low upside option

Final Thoughts

Jamal Lewis is a proven commodity. But it's not an elite commodity anymore, if it ever was. He seems secure in his job, and the Browns certainly want to run the ball a lot. The offensive line should be capable of opening up some holes, and Lewis has never finished worse than RB25 but is going RB35. If you're looking for a safe, value pick with minimal upside, Lewis is your guy. If you would rather roll the dice on a swing for the fences option as your backup, he's most certainly not. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Jamal Lewis appears to present opportunity for going heavy WR early and waiting for moderate performing RB on the cheap in later rounds. I expect that similar to Cedric Benson, Jamal Lewis will provide decent stats in 09 as he has very little that threatens to take his carries from him. He is getting a little older (30 at the start of the season), he has slowed down (but could gain some quickness back if his ankle is well) and yet he should be the team's stalwart back.

In 07, he had nine games with over twenty carries, including seven with over 100 total yards, and scored 11 total TDs. His average per carry slumped from 4.4 ypc to 3.6 as the Browns offense deteriorated. Yet, he still had five games with over 20 carries and four more with 19. I expect that his ypc will increase with his ankle improvement and a little offensive improvement for the Browns.

Very nice game to game scoring, even though possibly with moderate upside from a very low draft pick as he is currently at ADP is RB34 and 83 overall.

Coboney:
Jamal Lewis is yet another case of lots of attempts for rather mediocre return per carry but will turn to be a decent fantasy weapon. Not quite so great in real life.

There are 2 Changes I think for Lewis

1) The Cleavland offense will almost certainly be better then last year. While it won't be 07 good it will be better then what they did last year.

2) Mangini is coming in which means more Harrison carries.

So this means better production on a Per Carry Basis, but less playing time overall. In addition it is very feasible to suspect that there will be more carries to go around as Mangini gave out more then the Cleavend Offense has in 2/3 past years (2007 being the acception at 440 which is in the Mangini zone.)

So we can expect (based on past usage of Thomas Jones vs Leon Washington ) that of approximentally 430 attempts that Jerome Harrison's high side is 75. In addition we can expect about 40 to go to other players (QB, 3rd RB, WR runs etc). This leaves for Jamal Lewis about 315 attempts.

If we expect slight improvement over last year (And over the 06 Ravens offense) we can probably put YPC up to 3.8 which is low for a starting running back but would be a decent year for Lewis.

About 9 rushing TDs is a decent projection for Cleaveland of which 7 will end up in Lewis' hands as the goal line back.

On the recieving side He'll probably do a little worst then last year with Harrison (why do I keep writing Norwood there? ) taking more of those duties

Jamal Lewis Projections