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Spotlight - TE Dustin Keller, New York Jets

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

The New York Jets are allegedly still searching for their second starting wide receiver, either pursuing a free agent acquisition like Plaxico Burress or hoping that Chansi Stuckey, Brad Smith or David Clowney will step up and take the starting spot on the other side of Jerricho Cotchery.

For right now, nothing could be further from the truth.

The true secondary receiver for the Jets is their star tight end -- Dustin Keller. Keller burst onto the scene last year with the assistance of quarterback Brett Favre, who happened to discover Keller in the middle of the season where he put up a stretch of five games with six or more targets. During that span, Keller accumulated 327 yards on 29 catches and a touchdown, highlighted by his first career 100-yard game against the Rams in Week 10. Now it is true that Keller did fade some in December, but many rookies struggle to keep up the same level of effort in their first pro season. Keller also was hindered by an injured Favre who also had issues throwing the ball in the final month of the season.

Looking ahead, Keller has little to stand in his way to both start every game and also be the second-most targeted receiver for New York for this coming year. He has looked to be bigger so far in OTAs, adding weight to help him to both endure a long season and also stay on the field as a blocker when needed. Keller has also been putting up some of the best performances as a pure receiver in early practices, but the bigger part of that statement is that he is getting open further down field and is also working well with rookie QB Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez is viewed by Keller detractors as an issue for 2009, as the rookie signal caller may limit Keller's upside. While that may occur early in the season, Sanchez needs a dependable target over the middle to take some heat off of him when he feels pressure in his first season and is looking to get rid of the ball. A big tight end running down the seam or running a short pattern 10-15 yards down field will be an attractive target for Sanchez, so Keller's targets should not be diminished at all and could easily increase from his 78 chances in 2008.

Another concern for Keller's production is how the Jets may change their offensive philosophy in 2009. Rex Ryan comes in and may institute a Baltimore Raven style of team approach -- defense and running attack first, passing game second. That would fit the model for the Ravens in 2008 with an inexperienced quarterback in Joe Flacco, and it worked very well for Baltimore. The parallels hold water with another rookie possibly under center for the Jets, so Rex Ryan may learn from Flacco's first year and keep it as simple as possible for Sanchez for his NFL debut.

Positives

• Big target over the middle for inexperienced Jets quarterbacks
• Likely second option in the New York passing game with Laveranues Coles gone
• Strong rookie season numbers to build upon in second season
• Bigger size will keep him on the field for run blocking and help him perform better all season

Negatives

• Without two strong wideouts, middle of the field may not be as open as in 2008
• Young quarterbacks may have trouble getting him the ball consistently
• Jets' running game may be more of an emphasis with three good options (Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene)
• Defenses may key on Keller more with fewer passing options and more game film to study
• The New York area weather and winds in the Meadowlands may be a factor at times in November and December

Final Thoughts

Dustin Keller should see an increase in his targets and production after a strong rookie season. He posted 48 catches and 535 yards last season, but only finished as TE14 last year due to just three touchdowns. The scoring will be a key factor for Keller in 2009, as eight of the Top 10 TEs last season had five or more touchdowns. Keller is a strong candidate for an increase in targets this year since the Jets are lacking at WR2 and also have inexperience at the quarterback position. A big target over the middle, especially in the red zone, will be a big factor for the Jets. Expect more of a controlled passing attack as New York focuses on running the ball and playing defense in their first year under new head coach Rex Ryan. Keller is currently available in Round 10 of fantasy drafts (Pick 116) based on the latest ADP and is the 10th tight end off of the draft board. I would dare say that TE10 is more towards his low end value, which means savvy drafters can wait on the tight end and grab Keller in Round 9 with confidence and reap the likely upside.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

travdogg:
Outside of Darren McFadden, I can't think of another player I like more than their ADP than Keller.

Keller was productive last season and in year 2 I'm expecting quite the leap. With Coles leaving someone has to pick up the slack, I think it will be Keller. Also, Chris Baker is gone and he took away several snaps from Keller. With the increased playing time and increased reliance on him, Keller is a prime break out candidate, and that's before mentioning his athletic ability or the fact that he is basically an oversized WR.

Jason Wood, Senior Writer, Footballguys:
The thing we have to remember about Keller is that he's, almost by default, the WR2 rather than the TE1. The Jets have Jerricho Cotchery who, while talented, is more suited as a WR2 and good possession option. He's not a do-everything, stretch the field difference maker, yet he's BY FAR the best the Jets have at wideout. At WR2, there's always the chance someone like Clowney can emerge and surprise everyone, but barring that Keller has to be in line for a ton of targets.

Sure, the Jets aren't going to throw a lot if things go as planned, but plenty of TEs have put up solid fantasy numbers in similar ball-control offenses. Heck, Todd Heap played in that kind of offense [and had a similar lack of WR talent competing against him for targets] in Baltimore where Rex hails from.

I think the thing we have to remember about Keller, versus say John Carlson, is that Keller is a plus athlete. Carlson is more in the mold of Jason Witten or Anthony Fasano in that he's a big, strong kid who can block really well. And happens to also be able to catch passes pretty well. Keller is more athletic than that. He's not on the level of a Kellen Winslow or Gates, but he's certainly as able-bodies and fluid as Chris Cooley or Zach Miller, if not moreso.

No matter who lines up under center, I can't see how Keller doesn't get targeted early and often. And because of his athleticism and ability to create mismatches, I actually think we'll see HIM, not Cotchery, making plays downfield when they're available.

rzrback77:
I am at a quandry on how to project the Jets offensive skill players. I do like their potential running game as Thomas Jones has been very good and Leon Washington just keeps getting better and better, plus they added a potential player in rookie Shonn Green. Seems like a lot of NFL potential, if not fantasy potential.

Their receiving options I am not nearly so high on. Cotchery and Keller, that's it. I think that they need one of the FA WRs more than almost anybody. When you also add the fact that they will have a first time starter, who could be a rookie who only started one season in college, it totally lacks promise for the passing attack.

I think that their best game plan may be to be good enough on defense that they can play ball control and limit their turnovers. That would also minimize their receiving options. I just don't like Cotchery as the top WR and you need that to open up the middle for the TE. I do however like Keller and think that he will be targeted more and improve his fantasy stats just a little from his rookie season.

If the Jets sign Burress or Matt Jones and if they get better QB play than I expect, these numbers should be low. I am just not counting on those things happening.

Flea Flicker:
It would be incorrect to think that Keller's stats suffer due to the loss of Brett Favre. A good receiving TE can be a young and inexperienced QB's friend, and it appears that all of the possible QB options for the Jets will be young and/or inexperienced.

Keller may not ever be 'elite', but his ADP right now just screams value. There was a 4-game stretch last year beginning in Week 10 where he went 6-107, 8-87, 6-42, 7-77, all while getting 6-8 targets per game. With Laveranues Coles moving on to the Bengals, having an extended run this season like that 4-game stretch with 6+ targets per game seems within reach.

Dustin Keller Projections