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Spotlight - RB Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

The last few years, especially last year, there were some doubts regarding how long Thomas Jones would be a consistent force in the league. Jones is coming off his best season in his ninth year in the league. Not many RBs have their best season in their ninth year. Some fantasy circles predicted fantasy pay dirt for Jones in 2008. He was the team's primary RB, the Jets signed Brett Favre, their offense looked strong, etc. The naysayers followed the path of "he's a 30-year old RB who has seen a drop in YPC in each of the last three years, etc." We all know what happened -- Jones finished as the 5th best RB in the league and those who predicted his career year come out smelling like a rose.

Having said that - what can we expect to see from Jones in 2009? He's a year older (31), and has four consecutive years of 290 rushing attempts or more, averaging 302.5 carries in that span. That grueling pace has to eventually catch up to him. Many predicted it would happen last year, but it didn't. Will it finally happen this year? Possibly.

Reasons why Thomas Jones will not produce like he did last year:

• The emergence of RB teammates Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. Washington had several outstanding plays that made him a dynamic part of the Jets offensive attack in 2008. His 5.9 YPC average will likely garner more of a complementary role in 2009 than the backup role he mainly played in 2008. Rookie RB Shonn Green could very well be the team's go-to back in goal line situations. At 6-foot-0 and 230 pounds, Greene will likely compete for that role, which would minimize the amount of TDs for Jones.
• Drop off in offensive production without Favre? The departure of Brett Favre opens the door for rookie QB Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens. The drop off from Favre will likely result in fewer sustained drives and less scoring opportunities. The Jets will either be led by a rookie or an unproven backup QB. That doesn't exactly scream offensive juggernaut.
• New coach, different results? New head coach Rex Ryan saw how the Ravens thrived with a three-RB approach in Baltimore last year. He could very easily incorporate that strategy with the Jets in 2009. Any such implementation of a three-RB committee will undoubtedly result in lesser numbers for Jones.

Reasons why Thomas Jones will produce like he did last year:

• The Jets will likely be looking for a new leader on offense. Thomas Jones is clearly the veteran of the team who will lead by example. Even if the Jets adapt a three-RB approach, he will not be a forgotten man.
• He'll be the first option in the running game and has a proven track record of success and durability.
• He showed last season that he can be counted on in the red zone, as evidenced by his four red zone touches per game (67 overall).

Positives

• Jones is coming off four consecutive years of 290+ carries and at least 1100 yards rushing. This exemplifies his ability to stay healthy over the course of a season, as well as be a team workhorse if needed
• He has consistently averaged 31 receptions per season, never dipping below 20 in a year. Last year he finished with 36 catches, the most since 2006
• He is the team leader who will be a major part of the offense. The fact that he has improved in the red zone last year compared to seasons prior is a feather in his cap that might keep him from relinquishing more carries to either Leon Washington or Shonn Greene

Negatives

• Aside from a new coaching regime, the Jets will have some new faces on offense that may not live up to their predecessors. In other words, the offense could struggle compared to last year's ninth ranked total offense. As a result, Jones may not have as many scoring opportunities.
• Age and a grueling work load is creeping up on Jones. Eventually he'll have to wear down. The fact that the Jets spent a third round pick on RB Shonn Greene in the draft this off season leads us to believe that the future of the Jets running game will revolve around someone else other than him. That future could happen as early as this season
• Jones may have had his best season last year, but the emergence of Leon Washington and Shonn Greene will minimize his carries. Even if Jones continues to excel, the Jets, especially new HC Rex Ryan, will want to preserve him as much as possible so he can be fresh at season's end. It all results in fewer carries, which of course leads to less production
• Jones is unhappy with his contract and could be a distraction in camp, which would greatly increase the risk that Greene gets a shot at displacing him in 2009

Final Thoughts

Thomas Jones is a rare breed, in that he enjoyed his best season of his career last year - his ninth year in the league. He has proven that he can be a relied upon as a 20+ carry RB game in and game out. He has also recently shown how to finish the job in the red zone with 15 total TDs last year. Despite being 31 years old at the start of his 10th year, his abilities and talent will not quickly fade away. He is Jets primary ball carrier and he should still finish with 225-260 carries. Teammates Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene will see some action too and if either shows great success running the ball, Jones will surely see fewer carries. The days of 290 carries and 1,200 yards may be a thing of the past for the veteran Jones, but he still has the ability to finish as a top 25 RB.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Black Jacks:
The Jets offense looks exactly like Baltimore did going into last season.

You have a first round QB you're not really sure is going to start or not. You have a crowded backfield with a rookie, a older rb with mileage and then the extra guy.

I think at best Jones is part of a running back by committee this year and gone next year.

For some reason I think Leon Washington is the sneaky play there this year. He is by far the best talent at the position

I see Jones still being a descent third back this year but I would take him early in drafts.

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
I think the people making the Baltimore analogy may be looking for parallels where there aren't any. Sure, Rex Ryan comes over from a winning program in Baltimore, but let's not forget Ryan is a defensive guy. Ryan is going to turn the Jets defense into HIS style immediately; and there's no debating that. But on offense, I see no indication Ryan has any interest in meddling one way or another. Remember, he retained Brian Schottenheimer as the OC; the Jets offense remains intact. if Schottenheimer wasn't prone to using a Baltimore RBBC, why would we assume he'll change his stripes in 2009? I think Shonn Greene COULD replace Jones, but not this year. So long as Jones doesn't shoot himself in the foot with a camp hold out over his contract, I see him with at least 240-250 carries. Will he match last season? Doubtful, but mainly because I think Leon Washington will do more in the base offense. But at his ADP, if he has a healthy camp, I love Jones as a RB depth option particularly if you grab an elite WR or two in the first three rounds instead of drafting RB/RB.

fridayfrenzy:
240 carries
4.3 YPC
1032 rushing yards
7 TDs (I think Greene will vulture some TDs)

30 receptions
6.0 YPR
180 receiving yards
2 TDs

RB RANK = RB18 - RB24

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