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Spotlight - RB Larry Johnson, Washington Redskins

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

Unpredictability in sports is a funny thing. When someone comes out of nowhere, unexpected and unforeseen, and does amazing things, we can't help but get a little attached. Our emotions kick in. Collectively we say, "where did that come from!" in both excitement and disbelief. And a little part of us files those moments of awe in to our heads to be remembered for years to come over poker games and late night rap sessions. Don't believe me? Tell me you don't remember exactly where you were and what you were doing when you witnessed the following...

"How did Buckner not field that?"
"I can't believe David Tyree caught that pass."
"You just knew if Laettner got a good look that shot was going in. He hadn't missed all night!"

In fantasy football, moments don't happen all at once. They take weeks, maybe even full seasons. Those moments are made up of unpredictability that alters the course of an entire season. All of the preparation in the world, all of the trades, all of the work on the waiver wire means nothing when fantasy owners are blindsided by a player who came from near-nowhere and became the catalyst for the entire outcome of the season. For example, you've probably forgotten who was on your redraft roster last season already but I'd bet good money you remember which owner had Drew Bennett in 2004 when he posted a ridiculous 517 yards and 8 touchdowns in three weeks at the end of the year.

In fantasy football, there are occasional surprises but rarely is there an instance where something is so shocking, so out of left field that the world of fantasy football collectively raises its eyebrows in amazement. Sure, Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk, and Priest Holmes all had seasons where having them on your team made you a good bet to win every week. But in most every case, those players had high expectations placed on them going in to the season; usually they were first or second round picks so fantasy players knew on draft day that they would likely make good things happen. And when they did, your team was competitive. What's so unpredictable and shocking about that?

Enter Larry Johnson. Coming out of college, Johnson wasn't highly regarded by fantasy folks despite being a first round pick. He was too big, ran too upright, and didn't get along with head coach Dick Vermeil. He complained some and got in a little trouble. Larry Johnson was essentially a guy to stash on your roster if you needed to backup Priest Holmes, a one man wrecking crew if ever there was one.

Johnson had twenty carries as a rookie. Twenty. That's it. No "spelling the starter", no "a few series to learn the pace of the game." 20 carries is what you get when the other guy can't find his helmet or misplaced his mouthpiece. He played in six games, started none, and generally looked like a big lumbering rookie on the bench behind a superstar. Priest Holmes had 27 touchdowns and more then 2,000 yards from scrimmage that year. Johnson had fewer rushes then the Chiefs fullback, Tony Richardson. At the end of the year, most anyone that watched football was already wondering if Larry Johnson had a future in the NFL. So goes life in the NFL.

When 2004 came around, there were whispers. Holmes was a year older. Surely he couldn't keep it up, right? But Johnson hadn't shown anything! Derrick Blaylock would get the carries! The hottest debate of the offseason was whether to draft Holmes at all and when to draft Johnson as a handcuff or pass on him altogether. There were strategies and articles and breakdowns detailing the true cost of drafting both Holmes and Johnson, drafting one, drafting neither... Holmes was a first round pick, Johnson was being drafted between the 4th and 5th rounds. A backup with 20 carries in his career was going in the top 55 picks with no assurance that he would carry the ball often, if at all. Opinions were varied, and conviction was strong.

So what happened? Holmes was injured, Johnson wasn't playing and then BANG, it happened. In the last 5 games of the year, Johnson had 731 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Projected over the course of a full season, that would be a ridiculous 2,300 total yards and more then 30 touchdowns. Rarely does a preseason debate get answered so authoritatively. Even better, he looked like he had "it." The look a running back has when they can't be stopped. Emmitt, Ricky, LT, ADP, Faulk...you know the names. Those guys ran wild no matter what the defense threw at them and Larry Johnson was joining the group right in front of our eyes. You might not remember who you owned on your team in 2004, but I'd be willing to bet you remember who owned Larry Johnson.

The next season was more of the same. 2,100 yards and 21 touchdowns. In 2006 Johnson posted 2,100 yards and 19 touchdowns. Sure, he'd been good in college but not even the loudest Penn State fan would have predicted what happened in late 2004 nor what would follow it.

And then it was over. As quickly as Larry Johnson became a beast from the backfield, he became just another bust of a first round pick. In the last two seasons he's played 20 games, accumulated less then 2,000 total yards, and scored a mere nine touchdowns.

So what can we expect in 2009? Is Johnson's career on the decline? Or have the last two seasons been an aberration and he's ready to get back to top-notch form?

Unfortunately, the answer isn't all that clear. Johnson is playing for a new coach, in a new offensive system expected to be more reliant on the pass. He is behind a much different offensive line then during his heyday and his quarterback is a lot less experienced then Trent Green was.

On the positive side, the Chiefs haven't gone done much to find his replacement. Jamaal Charles is a decent complement and third down back but no one expects him to be a bell-cow. The rest of the backfield may have talent but not a one of them has Johnson's ability and history of high performance. Furthermore, the Chiefs have been working to rebuild their line in the last few seasons with the hope that both their running game and passing game can be more productive.

Johnson doesn't have time on his side though. He'll turn 30 years old in the middle of the season. Even more importantly, Johnson appears to have suffered from one of the few hard and fast rules of football: give a running back more then 400 carries and his future will almost always be bleak. Johnson had 416 in 2006.

We think that Johnson has a chance to rebound and be a respectable second or third running back for your fantasy squad. The low side of expectations is around 1,000 total yards and 10 touchdowns, so you could do much worse then Johnson at the end of the 4th round or beginning of the 5th round.

The most striking thing about Johnson this season is that there seems to be very little debate about his prospects. We've yet to hear anyone make a case that Johnson can return to being a 1,500 yard, 15 touchdown running back. We've also yet to hear anyone make a compelling case for a different Chiefs rusher to pick up the slack and produce. The reality is that Johnson is now thought of, almost universally, as a completely and totally average running back that represents neither good nor bad value. Frankly, we've never seen a player with a history like Johnson's generate so little discussion. Our staff ranks him as the 20th best selection among running backs in redraft leagues two-thirds of our staff have him ranked between 15 and 22. Opinions are not all that varied on Johnson this season anywhere that we've seen.

But here's the thing: suppose new coach Todd Haley realizes his best chance to win in the AFC West is to put the ball in the hands of his best offensive players? Tony Gonzalez is long gone and while Dwayne Bowe has a bright future, perhaps he isn't there yet. Suppose Haley gives Johnson the ball 20 times a game in an effort to keep the pressure off of new quarterback Matt Cassel. Suppose all parties involved decide the best chance to win is to give the ball to the old warhorse while he still has some tread on the tire? Are their any health issues keeping Johnson from being in shape and ready to roll? Is there any reason to think that Larry Johnson won't break 300 carries this season barring injury? For Johnson, the difference between a good season and a great season comes down to how many yards he can garner with each touch. Anything less then four yards per carry is likely to place Johnson at or near his draft position. Anything greater then four yards per carry could yield very strong production.

When Johnson was healthy in 2008, he actually had some moments where he looked like the LJ of old. Despite not finding the end zone much (which was common for the woeful Chiefs) and being sidelined for weeks at a time with injury, Johnson managed to break double-digits in fantasy points in 6 of the 12 games in which he appeared. His high water mark came in week four against the Broncos when he rushed for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Perhaps that's the most striking thing about Johnson this season: the absolute lack of evidence that he won't have a season-long opportunity to produce great numbers. For example, Johnson is currently being drafted behind Joseph Addai of the Colts - the same Colts team that used a first round selection on a running back to share his carries. The same Joseph Addai who doesn't have near the history of production of Johnson.

Positives

• Revamped offensive line and a new, non-Herm Edwards led offense
• Appears to be over his nagging injuries and doesn't have any off-field issues following him around
• Has a history of high-level production not that long ago
• Chiefs didn't bring in anyone to compete for the starting role in the offseason

Negatives

• Johnson hits the wrong side of age 30 in November
• 400+ carry season from a few years ago is hard to overlook; history has not been kind to backs with so many touches
• Johnson isn't near the factor in the receiving game that he was during his prime

Final Thoughts

If you're seeking a running back in the 4th or 5th round who has a chance to surprise you, Larry Johnson is as good a choice as any. He's healthy, he's behind a revamped line, and he's in an offense for a coach that no doubt recognizes his talents. Johnson could have another year or two of greatness (or at least near-greatness in him). He could touch the ball 320 times, he could score 15 touchdowns, and he could offer your squad 1600 total yards. With any luck, Larry Johnson could come from nowhere without much in the way of expectations and shake up your fantasy league in a way you'd never expect. And of course you remember, he's done it once before.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

TheDirtyWord:
I really think Johnson is one of the biggest sleepers in all of FF in 2009. While projecting what his role will be in the spread offense of Todd Haley and Chan Gailey, here is the Chiefs depth chart at RB currently.

Larry Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Kolby Smith
Jackie Battle

Charles was a rookie in 2008. Smith is coming off a ruptured patella tendon in his knee and prior to that had a career YPC of 3.4 and Battle has largely been a practice squad player during his two seasons in the NFL. Johnson certainly isn't an endearing personality, but he is by far the best option on that team to give carries to...bell cow carries.

Let's also realize that he was not hurt last season. He missed time because of his off field transgressions and while the spector of that still remains, it does appear Johnson has laid low since and is making an effort to continue to do so. Johnson has been his own worst enemy and you probably have to be reading tea leaves a bit to make a determination as to whether his recent good behavior is here to stay or not. What Johnson does realize though is:

1) He'll be 30 this season (in November). Even though by comparison, his career workload has been relatively light (1269 carries)...he's got to know that the clock is ticking. He's already gotten his big contract, but unless he wants to be one of those guys who never sees the big money in it (and chances aren't great that he does even if he does perform) then he needs to toe the line.

2) Early in the off-season he demanded a trade and in short, the tumbleweed that the NFL's response replied with was deafening. That has to catch your attention in terms of "I better make this work" and since these people know nothing about me, I better make a solid impression.

One more thing to point out. Matt Cassel for as nice of a season as he put up last year, is still a guy with a 1-year track record which was also built with the help of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, not to mention the rest of the core of the Patriots organization that stands as one of the best in professional sports. Dwayne Bowe is a nice talent, but he's not Moss and the Chiefs are building this thing from the ground up. I think the Chiefs would be wise to slowly place the franchise on Cassel's shoulders rather than crash course it. Johnson can be the bridge of having the bulk of the offensive responibility on his shoulders while Cassel grows into the franchise QB role.

As such, even with the spread attack, I see Johnson getting alot of work, although I think his first half will be better than his second half.

CalBear:
The thing I would worry about the most with LJ is the coaching change. Todd Haley is coming off being the offensive coordinator for Arizona, which ranked #32 in rushing attempts in 2008 (and #25 in 2007), and didn't throw a whole lot to the RBs, either (Hightower led with 34 receptions). He also loses Tony Gonzalez, who was probably the single biggest contributor to the running game with his ability to block and to draw linebackers to him.

Haley didn't use the TE in Arizona. I think KC's off-season, letting Gonzalez go and bringing in the top free-agent QB while doing nothing to address the RB position, indicates that they're trying to replicate Arizona's success. Bowe is a very good WR. They're still lacking a Fitzgerald-level complement, but I see a max of about 400 rushing attempts in KC. Now, in 2007 Arizona had just 405 rushes and Edge got 324 of them, so it's possible LJ will still get a decent workload, but I'm going to project him for under 300 carries, even before considering injury.

On the plus side, the offense should be better than it was, which should give him more TD opportunities. KC had just 9 rushing TDs in 2008, and three of those were Tyler Thigpen's. LJ should get the majority of goal line looks in an improved offense with no Gonzalez.

Banger:
I wouldn't say he's high risk at the 21st or so ranked RB...I'd say moderate risk/high reward...after looking at the game logs and comparing him to other guys that are ranked above him it's clear that even though his team was horrible last year, they barely ran the ball and he had fewer than 200 carries he's much more explosive and has more big play ability than guys like Grant, Lynch, K. Smith.

In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Compare that with Grant - 312 carries - 1 20+ yard carries (35), Lynch 251 carries - 2 20+ yard carries (35, 28) and K. Smith - 239 carries - 3 20+ yard carries (26, 26, 25).

If a few things break right...Cassel is efficient, the line improves, they can run the ball more and get some more red zone opportunities LJ really has the ability and opportunity to put together a very nice year.

Larry Johnson Projections