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Spotlight - RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Posted on 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

When the Titans selected Chris Johnson in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, it left a lot of people scratching their heads. Not because Johnson wasn't a compelling prospect, but because the Titans had used high draft choices on RBs in each of the last two seasons:

• Chris Henry -- 2nd rounder, 2007
• LenDale White -- 2nd rounder, 2008

But the simple truth is the Titans whiffed on the Chris Henry selection, as most draft scouts thought Henry was a Day Two pick rather than a Round Two option. And while White had been productive, he was hardly a complete, every down franchise tailback.

Johnson was best known for BLAZING speed and that, combined with above average hands, seemed to make him the perfect complement to LenDale White. It became clear early in camp that Johnson was explosive, and the Titans planned on using him in certain packages. But fantasy owners were still divided on how the Titans backfield would shake out.

Some expected LenDale White to lead the way, with Johnson serving a 3rd down role. Many more thought so little of White that they gambled Johnson would not only split touches, but would garner the majority. Needless to say, you were a LOT happier if you were a part of the latter camp rather than the former.

Johnson was spectacular in nearly every facet of the game:

• 14 games started
• 251 rushes
• 1,228 yards rushing
• 9 rushing TDs
• 43 receptions
• 260 yards receiving
• 1 receiving TD
• 209 fantasy points
• RB11 fantasy ranking

Johnson's obvious abilities have led many fantasy leaguers to expect even more in 2009. While that's certainly POSSIBLE, I'm tempering my expectations a bit and think you would do well to follow my lead. I'm NOT saying Johnson isn't a stud and worth having on your roster, I'm just saying that he's more likely to finish in the 10-15 range than Top 5, which some of my fellow staff members believe possible.

Here are the reasons I expect good but not great numbers from Chris Johnson in 2009:

LenDale White isn't going anywhere -- There's a popular notion that Johnson will get more touches in 2009. Yet, that presumes LenDale White either gets hurt or warrants fewer touches. Objectively, White was highly effective in his role, too, so why would the Titans limit his touches? White had 200 carries and averaged a respectable 3.9 yards per carry. Remember that many of his carries came in jumbo and short yardage packages, making his sub-4.0 YPC easier to stomach. But far more importantly, White scored 15 TDs and was one of the league's most effective goal-line backs. Johnson had just 4 goal-line carries last season, and as long as White is healthy, that shouldn't change in 2009.

The Titans have nowhere to go but down -- The Titans are going to have a difficult time matching last year's 13-3 record. The key to Tennessee's success in 2008 was the ability to play conservative ball control ball thanks to a stifling defense that allowed just 14.6 points per game (2nd best in the NFL). With DT Albert Haynesworth gone, and a tougher schedule, it's going to be harder for Tennessee to win games by grinding it out. And unfortunately Kerry Collins has proven for more than a decade that he will lose you as many games as he wins you if he has to throw the ball more than a few times. At the end of the day, that means Tennessee isn't going to run the ball as much.

The X-Factor -- Johnson's receiving ability

NFL scouts will tell you that Johnson is an above average route runner, dangerous in the open field, and has good hands. It's that reason so many expect Johnson to take another step forward this season. Yet, in spite of his reputation, Johnson didn't deliver on his promise as a pass catcher.

• 79 RBs caught at least 10 passes last season, Johnson ranked only 66th in yards per reception (6.0)
• Johnson was only 19th among RBs in yards-after-the-catch (YAC)
• CJ was 5th among RBs with 5 dropped passes

Now, to be fair, none of these metrics necessarily condemn the scouting reports; and the coaches insist they'll throw to Johnson more in 2009. And that's why I call this the X-factor. If Johnson's receiving numbers resemble his 2008 tally, I really can't see him finishing as a Top 5 guy. But if he sees as many targets but does more with them, as his skill set would argue, he could finish the year higher than my projections indicate.

Positives

• Johnson ran for more than 1,200 yards last year despite getting fewer than 20 carries in all but one game
• Johnson is explosive, and can make plays from all over the field
• The Titans have to remain committed to the ground attack to have any shot at contending for the playoffs

Negatives

• LenDale White is a great goal-line back and will cap Johnson's TD upside
• Johnson's performance as a receiver in 2008 failed to match with his scouting reports
• The Titans have a chance to come off the rails this year if the defense weakens and Kerry Collins is forced to throw more

Final Thoughts

I like Chris Johnson. My projections have him as the 11th best fantasy RB in traditional leagues and the 8th best runner in PPR leagues. But I have a sneaking suspicion he won't be on many of my teams because at least one owner is going to view him as a Top 5 option and draft him accordingly. If you can grab Johnson in the late 1st round or early 2nd, comfortably do so but don't reach for him. Now, if something happens to LenDale White in the preseason, all bets are off. Johnson would immediately vault to elite status if he had a clear path to 20 carries and goal-line touches.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

T S Garp:
Johnson is an absolutely electrifying player with immense talent. It's easy to look at his performance last season and assume that even better things are in store for this year, and I know that a lot of people are very high on him (I've been listening to the Audible -- awesome stuff -- and Bloom is his biggest fan). However, I'm not sure that we can necessarily assume that his numbers will increase substantially. While Lendale White isn't exciting, he's effective, and Fisher's comfortable with his role in the offense. While I'm not buying into the "Lendale's in the best shape of his career" stories, he's also not going anywhere. It's possible that White's role might not be as prominent if the Titans are playing from behind more often, but he should still be the guy at the goal line. Johnson only had 20 or more carries once last season and that may not increase. A lot is made of his pass-catching abilities, but he has work to do there. He only had 5 receptions of 10 or more yards all season.

Johnson struggled against Top 10 defenses last year and absolutely shredded KC, Cleveland, and Detroit. He won't get to face them in 2009 (although he does get St. Louis in Week 14) but he doesn't have to go up against Chicago, Minnesota, and Baltimore again (it should be noted that he was playing very well against Baltimore before he went down with an injury).

I like him a lot but I'm not ready to say that he'll take a big step forward.

gonzobill5:
When looking back on Chris Johnson's 2008 a couple things stand out:

- he had 240 rushes despite only topping 20 carries in a game once, in week 7 against GB
- that game went into OT, and was one of only 3 weeks in which CJ received more carries in the second half of a game than in the first
- likewise there were only 5 weeks where Lendale was utilized more in the first half (2 of those weeks he was barely used at all)
- CJ only caught 67% of his targets for a 6.0 ypc

These things indicate to me that Johnson's ceiling could be as high as any other player, particularly in ppr. First of all, look at how the Titans season panned out. They were unbeaten until week 12 and were on the good side of about 6 blowouts. Lendale appeared to play the role of the closer - but the GB game indicates that the Titans want to use CJ whenever the game isn't a blowout. I'm willing to bet that the Titans don't win 13 games again, so that makes me confident that Johnson has more carries.

The reception statistics don't make a lot of sense. Here we have a really explosive player coupled with a QB who likes to dumpoff (look at what he did with Tiki and Lamont Jordan) who only caught 67% of his passes and caught a pretty pathetic percentage for a RB. One explanation that makes sense is that Tenn didn't intend to utilize Johnson much in the passing game coming into the year. They planned to run a lot, and brought in Crumpler as another target for VY, but things changed in hurry. They were so successful (winning games) that they never really needed to expand Johnson's role. Another explanation is related to game situation. As I mentioned, Tennessee didn't lose much, and they didn't have to come from behind much either. These are the game situations in which pass catching RBs can rack up the points. With the loss of Haynesworth among other things, I expect more of these situations in 09, and I think CJ can flourish in them.

Lott's Fingertip:
Tennessee's defense will not likely be as dominant this year as it was last year. This may well translate into fewer short fields, and thus fewer red zone opportunities. It has been mentioned numerous times that Lendale White took most of the goal line carries, and this is true... and some may say that fewer short fields will impact White more than Johnson. HOWEVER.... Chris Johnson scored 10 TDs last year; of those, EIGHT were from 21 yards in.

Fewer red zone opportunities most certainly affects everybody on the offense, including really fast RBs.

It's just not easy to score long TDs from the RB spot, no matter how fast you are. Chris Johnson's speed makes him more likely to break the long ones than slower RBs, but it is still going to be a rarity. In 294 touches he had TWO long TDs. Maybe that goes up, maybe not... but long TDs are not a stat that you can accurately project.

Some are predicting an amazing season from Johnson. What goes into these amazing seasons, though? First you have to have natural talent, which Johnson has. Then you have to have a confluence of circumstances to allow that success; good O-line, good surrounding talent, a well-conceived offense, strong defense, numerous TD opportunities, and one final thing that is unpredictable but very important: health. Not just the health of the RB, but of the team.

Basically, everything went right for Tennessee last year:

~~ Their defense was very good - they lose Haynesworth this year. You gotta think they won't be AS good. A less effective defense is a negative for the offense as a whole. That affects EVERYBODY. Some players more than others, but everybody.

~~ They had few injuries - Tenn had 21 starter games missed. The league average was just over 44 games missed. Is it more likely that Tennessee starters miss more games or fewer games? If they miss more games, is that good or bad for the overall effectiveness of the team?

~~ Their starting offensive linemen missed a total of... ONE game. - is this likely to stay the same? I don't have access to starter games missed by position, but offensive linemen miss plenty of games as a group. If NFL teams averaged 44 starter games misses, and OL represent 5/22 of that, then the league average would be 10 OL starter games missed. If Tennessee regresses to the mean, does this help or hurt the offense?

~~ Kerry Collins stayed healthy - Collins is 36 years old. GENERALLY, older players get injured more than younger players. I won't go as far as to say it is LIKELY Collins misses time, but it has to be a consideration.

Collins is merely a game manager without weapons in the passing game.

~~ They won 13 games - generally, the offense is more productive and scores more when in their wins than in their losses. If Tennessee loses more than 3 games, is this good or bad for their overall offensive production?

MANY things need to go exactly right for CJ to have the opportunity to produce elite numbers. Most of those things went exactly right in 2008, and he finished RB11 in a down year for fantasy RBs.

switz:
Chris Johnson proved to be a dynamic player last season. He was involved in both the running and passing game, and had success even against the toughest defenses. However, while I expect to see him have an increased "role", I don't think that will necessarily translate into more touches. Last season CJ/White split the rushing load almost a perfect 60/40 split. While White frequently saw his touches after the game were well in hand, the fact the Titans used him as much as they did shows they don't want to wear CJ out. They won't overwork him.

The only reason I expect CJs touches to go up at all, is because he didn't play at all week 17.

Banger:
I posted this a few days ago in another thread...With respect to CJ3 and White...White got the vast majority of his carries when the team was leading or in garbage time...

when the Titans were up by 8+ pts White got 55% of the carries (83 of his 200 carries - 42% of his '08 total),
when the Titans were up 4-7 pts CJ got 53% of the carries (16/14),
when the Titans were trailing to up by 3 CJ got 62% of the carries (168/103),
when the Titans were trailing to up by 2 CJ got 66% of the carries (125/63),
when the Titans were trailing to up by 1 CJ got 68% of the carries (125/58) and
when the Titans were trailing to tied CJ got 70% of the carries (117/51).

White was a mop up back last year, it just happened there was a good bit of mopping to do due to their great season. You won't see that scenario again this year.

Chris Johnson Projections