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Spotlight - WR Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted on 8/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

The name may be different, but the talent is still the same. Chad Ochocinco, formerly Johnson, has fallen off the fantasy radar after spending the lion's share of his career as a fantasy stud. As I type this, Ochocinco is being drafted 17th among WRs and 47th overall. Not totally disrespectful draft position, but in my view woefully below where he's likely to finish a healthy season.

Fantasy owners have short memories, and sometimes that can REALLY work against them. This is one such case. Ochocinco finished last year as the 50th ranked fantasy receiver, and had numbers he'll not soon forget:

• 53 receptions (worst since his rookie year)
• 540 yards (worst since his rookie year)
• 10.2 yards per reception (career worst)
• 4 TDs (worst since his rookie year)

But looking at last year and assuming that's the new baseline really dismisses both Ochocinco's long tenure as a proven elite receiver as well as the clearly improved outlook for his underlying situation.

Let's remember just how good Chad Ochocinco has been throughout his career:

• 2002 -- 1,116 yards and 5 TDs (WR18)
• 2003 -- 1,355 yards and 10 TDs (WR3)
• 2004 -- 1,274 yards and 9 TDs (WR9)
• 2005 -- 1,432 yards and 9 TDs (WR4)
• 2006 -- 1,369 yards and 7 TDs (WR4)
• 2007 -- 1,440 yards and 8 TDs (WR6)

For those playing at home, that's five CONSECUTIVE Top-10 fantasy seasons. Yet his current ADP assumes he'll put up numbers roughly equal to his first full season as a starter (2002). Does that make any sense?

From 2002-2007, few NFL receivers were better:

• Receptions -- Ocho's 531 receptions are 2nd only to Torry Holt (590)
• Receiving Yards -- Ocho's 8,036 yards are 2nd only to Torry Holt (8,078)
• Receiving TDs -- Ocho's 48 TDs are 6th (behind Moss, Owens, Harrison, Holt and Ward)
• Fantasy Points -- Ocho's 1,106 fantasy points are 4th (behind Owens, Moss and Holt)

Last year the rails came off in Cincinnati. Carson Palmer missed 12 games last year and the Bengals offense was completely stalled. The Bengals passing attack fell to 30th in the league (in both yards and TDs) as Ryan Fitzpatrick was completely ineffective. On top of a stymied passing attack, the rushing attack gave opposing defenses no reason to put 8 men in the box.

This year, Carson Palmer is healthy -- Palmer is back and, as long as the injury bug doesn't strike again, his presence will work wonders for Ochocinco's outlook. Palmer is a career 64% passer that averages 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals have rebuilt their offensive line with the addition of rookie mountain Andre Smith and transitioning talented Andrew Whitworth to left tackle.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is gone - Houshmandzadeh literally spent the last decade playing in Ochocinco's shadow. He was the complementary WR to Ocho in college and with the Bengals; but parlayed a free agent season last year into big dollars from Seattle. Ochocinco is now Palmer's favorite target, without exception.

Ochocinco has his swagger back -- Some may scoff at the notion that a player's psyche plays a role in their outlook. But the simple fact is NFL players are human, and some (particularly WRs it seems) can let the negativity of their team situation ruin their productivity. Is it ideal for a player to let his situation get to him? Certainly not. But let me ask you a question. Are you going to hold Randy Moss' sub par performances in Oakland against him this year? I'm betting not. The point is Ochocinco is no longer demanding to be traded, he's practicing hard and spending time in the film room, and he's talking trash again. He's back to keeping a list of the defensive backs he burns, and has even promised to add the names of defensive coordinators who get beaten. And in typical Chad fashion, he's promising to use Twitter to Tweet during the game, willing to accept NFL fines just to do what he wants and have a good time. Vintage Chad = Elite Chad

Positives

• Ochocinco is as skilled as any receiver in the game. He can make plays in traffic, has great deep speed, excellent body control and goes after the ball. He knows the full route tree and has been one of the five best pass catchers for much of the decade
• Carson Palmer is healthy, and Ryan Fitzpatrick calls Buffalo home
• Ochocinco is happy and focused again. Remember what a new mindset did for Randy Moss, and CO is back laughing, playing hard, and not asking for a one-way ticket out of Cincinnati

Negatives

• He's coming off a terrible season, and while it seems unlikely, there are always cases where NFL players simply 'lose it'
• Palmer opted not to have surgery this offseason, so it's not impossible to think he'll get hurt again
• Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry are talents who will demand the ball, too

Final Thoughts

I've long been a Chad Johnson, er, Ochocinco supporter. He's an astounding talent who usually doesn't get his due because he's perceived as a headache. But fantasy owners needn't worry about whether he's a pain to coach, so long as he delivers the big numbers on game day. While you can't completely ignore last year, you also have a long history of unstoppable production before that to counterbalance the risk. Ochocinco, unlike Torry Holt, is only 31 years old and still in his physical prime. He's healthy, happy (a big switch from last year), has his QB back and plays for a Bengals team that will (as usual) NEED to throw the ball to stay in games given the sorry state of that defense. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Johnson return to Top 10 numbers, but at his current ADP you don't have to draft him that high. I'm planning on targeting him as my WR2 in quite a few leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

QuizGuy66:
I'm a Bengals fan and I have to say I'm at a complete loss as to what to project for Chad.

Positives:
1) (So far) a much much better mental attitude toward the offseason. Whether it's a desire to play and bounce back or simply hearing footsteps of the guys who actually went to all of the OTAs, the fact that Chad showed up to any of them is encouraging.
2) Along with 1, it sounds like he's back to his old approach in terms of conditioning so perhaps he won't have some of the nagging injuries he did last year.
3) Healthy Carson
4) Potential for improved OL play with the drafting of Smith and the other changes that were made. Hell, it can't be worse than what was there. With Palmer avoiding a broken nose this can only help the Ocho.

Negatives:
1) He's not the young guy he once was. The loss of step he showed last year could be permanent.
2) While you'd have to figure his high number of targets would resume, the overall WR corps for the Bengals is now deeper. Henry and Caldwell could eat into things a little with Coles taking a Housh-like number. If he flakes out, the concept of Henry supplanting him as the X is not ridiculous.
3) Chase Coffman gets his own item. If he develops over camp he could become a serious vulture to Chad's goalline opportunities.

I guess I'd take his better years and go a little lower than that. Something like 81-1300 with 6 TDs.

rzrback77:
Last season Chad O had injury difficulties and was missing his QB. Before that, he finished as WR 3, 9, 4, 4, and 6. This season Palmer is supposed to be healthy, TJ Housh is gone, and Chad O has an ADP of WR20 and 58 overall. This screams bargain to me.

Chad O has averaged 92 receptions over a five year period, not counting last year so he looks pretty solid as WR20. I think that he and Palmer both bounce back nicely in 09.

akaoni:
In the past he has been hugely frustrating because of his inconsistency. He'll put ups 12-185 and 3 TDs one week only to put up 3-28 the next. For two games that's great production, but it's so unpredictable that it's very irritating. That said, if Chad falls to the 5th or 6th in a 12 player redraft, he becomes a good value pick.

Chad Ochocinco Projections