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Spotlight - WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

All Hail Megatron

I’m not sure why Calvin Johnson’s nickname makes me smile, but it does. As a child of the 80s (born in 1974), the Transformers were one of the driving forces behind my childhood imagination. And speaking bluntly, Megatron was a total badass. Which is why I think it’s such a fitting nickname for the league’s youngest stud receiver.

Entering his 3rd season, there’s very little negative to say about Calvin Johnson. He’s a physical marvel (6’5”, 239 pounds, runs like a sprinter) who runs great routes, spends countless hours studying film, and has glue-like hands. Hyperbole aside, he’s very close to the prototypical receiver. You can certainly argue that he’s not THE top receiver, but it’s nearly universally held that CJ is one of the top 4 fantasy wideouts this year, along with Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson. All four will be off the board by the end of the 2nd round in most leagues; so be ready to use a high pick if you want any of them.

Johnson’s 2nd year was a tried and true ‘breakout’:

• 78 receptions
• 1,331 yards
• 17.1 yards per reception
• 12 TDs
• WR3 fantasy ranking

Megatron’s 2nd year numbers rival the best in league history:

Needless to say, Johnson is in heady company on that list. But every player is subject to criticism, even the consensus studs. So let’s talk through the most commonly held concerns about Johnson.

The Lions are a moribund franchise
When you’re coming off the first ever 0-16 season in league history, clearly the organization has problems. But there’s truth to the idea that Detroit has nowhere to go but up. The GREAT news is the Lions have finally relieved Matt Millen of his duties, and have made wholesale changes on the coaching staff. Jim Schwartz is a respected, no nonsense coach and has received high marks for how he’s running his first training camp. And Scott Linehan, the Lions new offensive coordinator, has plenty of experience that we’ll elaborate on a bit later. Either way, Johnson was the 3rd best fantasy receiver last year, in arguably the least advantageous situation possible. It can’t get any worse, but could get materially better, quickly.

The Lions don’t have a stud quarterback
Look, let’s be honest. If Calvin Johnson played for San Diego or Dallas or Philadelphia or New England or Indianapolis or Green Bay, we would be debating whether he was going to break 1,500 or 1,600 yards this year. Instead, he’s going to be catching passes from some combination of Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford. Is either a stud? No, but they’re also materially better than the QBs who threw to Johnson last year. Remember Culpepper is a career 63% passer who flourished years ago throwing to an elite WR named Randy Moss. Culpepper may not be in his prime anymore, but he’s in great shape and benefits from an entire offseason program with Detroit this year. More importantly, Culpepper had his best seasons when Scott Linehan was calling the plays in Minnesota, the same Scott Linehan who will be on the sidelines for Detroit this year. And if Culpepper isn’t playing, it’s because 1st overall pick Matthew Stafford has been so good, the team couldn’t keep him off the field. The bottom line is that a Scott Linehan-run passing attack with Culpepper + Stafford is going to be better than last year’s pedestrian offense with Culpepper + Kitna + Orlovsky.

Johnson needs to convert a higher percentage of his targets
You’ll get no argument from me on this, nor would you likely get an argument from Calvin Johnson is he was posed the same question. Johnson caught 78 receptions out of 151 targets, a disappointing 51.7% conversion rate. But conversion rate is as much a function of the quarterbacking as it is an indication of the receiver’s own abilities. Better quarterbacking = a better catch %. Before you get too worried about that metric, remember that Randy Moss has a career 56% catch rate.

Positives

• At 6'5", 239 pounds with 4.3 speed, few defensive backs can match up against Johnson in one on one coverage
• His career trajectory projects well against the very best to ever play the game
• His schedule this year looks good (an 0-16 season will do that) including matchups against Arizona and San Francisco in Weeks 15 and 16 (i.e., the fantasy playoff weeks)

Negatives

• Johnson needs to improve his hands, a higher catch % is all that's keeping him from challenging for the fantasy WR1 spot
• Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford should be serviceable, but they won't be confused with Tom Brady or Drew Brees
• Teams will double and triple team Johnson at every opportunity

Final Thoughts

There's very little Johnson can't do on the field. He was 4th in the league in YAC (511 yards), among the league leaders in big plays (25+ yards), led the NFL in TD catches despite playing for an inept team, and physically knows no parallels. Unlike many physical talents, Johnson also takes the mental side of the game seriously, and he's usually one of the last Lions to leave the film study room. Barring a major injury, Calvin Johnson should be an elite fantasy WR1 this year. In traditional leagues, I rate only Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss ahead of Johnson. In PPR leagues, CJ 'falls' to 4th (behind Andre Johnson) but remains a rock solid 2nd round pick. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

SexyRexy:
A monster. A freak. A beast. He was WR3 last year in only his second season with the pu-pu platter of QBs throwing him the ball. He can't be stopped. Culpepper, Stafford, whoever-just throw it long and he'll go get it.

rzrback77:
I think that Calvin Johnson is one of the top five WRs in the NFL, but I would hesitate to draft him at his current ADP of WR4 and 15 overall. The Lions lost all sixteen games in 08 and they threw 509 passes with only 353 rushes. They threw almost 60% of the time. They featured a continual rotation at QB with three taking most of the snaps. This year, they will likely begin with Culpepper and later switch to Stafford, so the theme of change at the position is probably going to continue. This continuance of change makes it difficult to get production.

Let's look at Calvin Johnson's stats:

07 - 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% 756 yds 15.8 ypr 5 TDs
08 - 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% 1331 yds 17.1 ypr 12 TDs

In 08, there was almost as much rotation at WR as there was at QB. McDonald had 35 catches while four others had between 10 and 20 catches. Basically after Williams left they had Calvin and scrubs. This year they have Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, and Ron Curry. They may not strike fear into opponents, but they should produce better than last year's options.

I will be surprised if Calvin Johnson meets his production of last year regardless of this skills. His situation is just desperate enough for me to look elsewhere in redrafts at his ADP. This will probably not be the majority opinion on Johnson for 09.

Scooby1974:
Anytime you toss that ball deep to Calvin you may as well consider yourself IN the "redzone". If Culpepper or Stafford have more time in the pocket due to any sort of line improvement with the addition of Pettigrew to block and the line gelling.....that will simply give Calvin more time to create separation from the DB's. I do see the point being made of 15+ TD's, and perhaps that is a bit much barring a big improvement at QB for Detroit.

Ryan and Flacco did well last year with RB's rushing the ball, the difference I see here is that Baltimore's D is sickly good, and ATL's was able to stop some people as well. Detroits D will slow some people down this year, but Detroit will still be playing from behind and will be force to Pass as opposed to hunkering down and running the ball like Balt and ATL could do. Culpepper/Stafford will HAVE to pass more than Ryan/Flacco did last year, unless Detroit just raises a white flag and flat out quits on games.

I don't think it is a far stretch to see with Fitz did on his own in the playoffs last year (6 rec, 101 yards, 16.8 y/c, 1 TD ATL---- 8 rec, 166 yards, 20.8 y/c, 1 TD, CAROLINA----9 rec, 152 yards, 16.9 y/c, 3 TD's, PHILLY-----7 rec. 127 yards, 18.1 y/c, 2 TD's PITT) ---with Warner and wonder what Calvin could do with a QB that had a full off-season of work and displayed a bit more accuracy.

Calvin Johnson Projections