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Spotlight - WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Since 2006, WR Andre Johnson has been one of the truly elite receivers in the NFL and as Texans QB Matt Schaub gets more experience under center, Johnson's potential for greatness continues to expand.

Here are his numbers since 2006:

41 games played (missed 7 in 2007)
278 receptions (3rd in receptions)
3573 receiving yards (5th in receiving yards)
21 touchdowns (11th in touchdowns)
484.7 fantasy points (6th in fantasy points)

Add in the 7 games he missed during the 2007 campaign, and his numbers would be brilliant. He has averaged an impressive 11.8 fantasy points per game in non-PPR (point per reception) leagues and a staggering 18.6 fantasy points per game in leagues that count PPR totals. In 29 of his last 42 games, he has caught 6 or more passes and has sixteen 100-yard receiving efforts. He has also scored in nineteen of those games. No matter how you breakdown the statistics, Johnson has been a star fantasy receiver over that span.

So, he has been great over the past few years. What is in store for Andre Johnson in 2009?

At just 28-years old heading into this season, Johnson is only now in the prime of his career. He was the 2nd best fantasy receiver in 2008 and there is no legitimate reason to expect those numbers to sink in 2009. Not only is Johnson blessed with great size (6'2" and 221 lbs) but he also has good speed, runs crisp routes and is good once the ball is in his hands. He often has 20+ pounds on the player matching up against him and Johnson uses that strength to his advantage, shielding off against defenders well until he catches the ball. He is often a man among boys and opposing defenses need to use double-coverage to have a chance to slow him down.

The chemistry between QB Matt Schaub and Johnson has blossomed over the past two years and now Schaub looks Johnson's way often. As Schaub's confidence and maturity continues to develop, so does the potential for Johnson to put up even more impressive numbers. One of the knocks on Johnson was an inability to score touchdowns on a consistent basis. Over the past 25 games, he has scored 16 times. That is easily the best stretch of his career and the scary thing is there is a lot of potential to increase those numbers going forward.

While not blessed with elite talent around him, veteran WR Kevin Walter and talented TE Owen Daniels are productive enough to keep all the attention from stopping Johnson. Make no mistake about it however, when defenses game plan for the Texans, the first player they breakdown and build a plan to slow down is Johnson as he is the true gamebreaker of the group. That has been true for a number of seasons now but Johnson has the ability to create havoc in the secondary. Having 2nd-year RB Steve Slaton on the field gives the Texans another weapon and that can only help Johnson find space in the secondary.

If there is one thing that could perhaps pull some production away from Johnson in 2009 it could be the improvement of both the running game and the defense going forward. The Texans too often, have been forced into shootouts due to terrible defensive play but the young and improving defense began turning the corner towards the end of last season and there is a chance they will be holding more leads into the 4th quarter this year, allowing the squad to pound the ball to chew up the clock. Just a minor caveat however as Johnson will get his targets in all likelihood no matter how improved the Texans defense plays.

Positives

• Elite talent: Great size, good speed and almost impossible to cover one-on-one
• Just now entering into the prime of his career
• Has developed great on-field chemistry with starting QB Matt Schaub

Negatives

• The team may pass less with an emerging rushing attack and improving defense
• Has not reached the end zone consistently throughout his career
• Almost certainly needs to be picked by early 2nd round at the latest to secure him on your team

Final Thoughts

Andre Johnson is a fantasy monster whose best games may still be ahead of him. While it seems like he has been around for a long time due to starting right out of the gate as a rookie, he is only turning 28 years old, typically the time most receivers hit their prime. Unless injury strikes, there is no reason whatsoever to believe he won't finish with 90+ receptions, 1,250+ yards and 7 touchdowns and those projections are probably on the low end. He is worthy of a first round pick towards the end of the round, and at worst should be one of the first WRs targeted in any format.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Lott's Fingertip:
STUD.

Andre Johnson's fortunes will rise and fall with Matt Schaub's health. Schaub has yet to play a full year as a starter, logging 11 games played in each of the last two seasons.

AJ was plenty good with or without Schaub the last two seasons:

With Schaub: 15.5 games, 107 rec., 1609 yards, 11 TDs (6.9/104/.71 per game) projects to 110/1660/11
Without Schaub: 9.5 games, 68 rec., 817 yards, 6 TDs (7.1/86/.63 per game) projects to 114/1376/10

Great numbers either way...HOWEVER, Dan Orlovsky is replacing Sage Rosenfels as Houston's QB2. Rosenfels was decently productive when he started: 260 yards and a TD per game last season. Orlovsky wasn't terrible in Detroit in 2008, putting up about 200 yards and a TD per game, but he seems to be a downgrade from Rosenfels.

All that being said, injuries are not very predictable.

I think AJ will come back to Earth a bit this year in terms of catches and yards, but he should get more TDs. A healthy Schaub has a very good chance at putting up more than the 21 passing TDs Houston had last year, and I don't expect Kevin Walter to match AJ in TDs again.... ever again.

Winning IS Everything:
Johnson has good size and is a blazer, and he can also make the great catch. Andre has all the tools and has finally started to translate that into big numbers. Some say he is not a big touchdown producer, but I point to 2007 when he had 8 TD in 9 games and had he played those other 7 games surely would have had 11-14 touchdowns for the season. This offense will be potent this year and the team will look to do great things. This could a HUGE season for Andre.

rzrback77:
Andre Johnson has missed only ten games in six NFL seasons, but because seven of those were in 07, he seems to carry the injury prone label. He is an awesome athlete, 6-2 and 220, an excellent leaper and he also has speed and moves. In short, he should be at or near the top of the WR rankings in 09.

In 06 and 08, he played all 16 games and averaged 168 targets, 109 receptions 1361 yards and 7 TDs. His ypc has climbed in his last two seasons and I expect it to remain in the neighborhood of 14.0. I think that the Texans will continue to seek to establish the pass to use the run rather than the other way around. They do not yet have a solid short yardage rushing attack and will seek to operate their entire offense in a quick strike spread them out fashion. I think that AJ is their most elite weapon and they will continue to go to him.

Deranged Hermit:
In my main league I'm targeting him at the 12-13 turn. I already have MJD as a keeper. Anyway, I'm going 100-105 catches, 10 TDs, around 1350-1400 yards. IMO, there are definately red flags with his and his QB's health. However, if he puts up 16 games when both he and Schaub healthy, watch out.

Andre Johnson Projections