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Spotlight - WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

OK, not exactly a newsflash but much like an addict coming to terms with his former demons, I'm saying that "Greg Jennings is a stud" as a means of realizing my own demons. Last year as it was time to write do our projections and write the Spotlights, I saw a lot of reasons to doubt Greg Jennings. Jennings finished WR12 in 2007 and was a much hyped breakout candidate last season, as a result. But I saw reasons for worry. His 12th place finish came with only 53 receptions and 920 yards; hardly the stuff of legend. Jennings was a fantasy star mainly thanks to 12 TDs; and usually players who get an inordinate amount of their fantasy value from TDs are high bust candidates in the following year. On top of that, the Packers were switching from Brett Favre -- a legend with a long history of making good WRs seem like great ones -- to an unproven Aaron Rodgers. As you can see, my skepticism for Jennings was entirely logical.

Only it was dead wrong. Jennings' TD totals did fall, but he still caught 9. And Aaron Rodgers was, statistically, every bit the accurate gunslinger Favre was. But more importantly, Jennings took every facet of his game to the next level:

80 receptions (+27 from 2007)
1,292 yards (+372 from 2007)

And Jennings wasn't just a one-trick pony in the red zone. He was a top receiver in all facets of the game.

• He was 8th in the NFC among WRs with 383 yards after the catch
• He was tied for 4th with 13 catches of 25+ yards
• He was the 4th most targeted receiver (140 targets)
• He scored a TD or went for 100+ yards in an astounding 11 games

So count me on board the Jennings Express this year. He's entering his 4th season, is clearly the best WR on a pass-happy team, has a quarterback who can and will get him the ball, and has a supporting cast that will ensure opposing defenses can't game plan him out of the offense.

Positives

• Jennings has evolved into an all-around receiver, able to make catches in traffic or beat defensive backs deep. He runs crisp routes and gets after the ball. Jennings ranked among the best YAC generators and deep ball finishers in the league last year
• The Packers have a favorable schedule this year, and Jennings is sure to be among the most targeted receivers in the NFL
• Aaron Rodgers is an uber productive passer who has a clear mastery of the pass-happy Mike McCarthy version of the West Coast offense

Negatives

• Jennings dropped 8 passes last year, among the league leaders
• The Packers have a deep receiving corps including Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson; there will be games when one of them stars at Jennings' expense
• The Packers want to have more offensive balance this year, which could mean fewer passing attempts

Final Thoughts

Greg Jennings proved me wrong last year, and I have a lot of egg on my face as a result. In the last two seasons he's been WR12 and WR4. I personally expect him to finish somewhere in between those two rankings this year, which means Jennings is one of a handful of WRs you need to target as your top option at the position in 2009. The stars are aligned for the young superstar, and he need only stay healthy and hope his QB can do the same in order to help deliver true WR1 performance. His current ADP of WR7 (24th overall) is fair. He doesn't provide you with a ton of value, but then again your 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks are more about getting what you expect than hoping for material upside. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Choke:
Hard not to like Greg Jennings.

Especially since the Packers used the Patriots pick on him.. as the "brilliant" Patriots traded up from that spot to the Packers spot for wr Chad Jackson.

Looks to me like Ryan Grant could swipe some TDs if the Packers don't improve on their overall scoring. But I am under the impression that the offense will improve.

Jennings gets behind the defense almost as good as anyone in the league. Maybe not equal to Steve Smith or Randy Moss, but he remains a massive threat. They will use a bit more underneath stuff to help the entire offense out, which in turn helps both the team and Jennings get more overall shots in the red zone.

rzrback77:
I agree with the rather gaudy projections for Greg Jennings in 09. My issue with him is more his ADP than his expectations. I think that his compatriot Packer WRs are extremely talented and there could be some others stepping up (sorry Joe) and taking away some of Jennings opportunities. This is also why I am so solid on Packer QB Aaron Rodgers, the multitude of excellent receiving options available.

In his three seasons, Jennings has had 7.5 targets per game in his rookie year, then 6.5 in his second year, and last year up to 8.8 targets per game. 2009 was the only year that he played all 16 games and he became a fantasy force finishing as WR4. Therefore, in 09 he is going at an ADP WR6 and 21 overall. He is in the same ADP tier as Randy Moss, Randy Wayne, Steve Smith, and Roddy White. In other words, he needs to play all season and come close to matching 08 success to perform equal to expectations and that might be tough to di in Green Bay with the plethora of receiving options.

Last season, Driver had 115 targets, Jordy Nelson only 54, and James Jones even less at 30 targets. Donald Lee, the top TE had 50 targets and Jermichael Finley, who could be an up and comer, only had 12 targets.

I do like Jennings offensive talents, but may not get him on my team in 09.

BLOX:
Jennings is one of the safer picks to be in the top ten. However, he's not flashy or a big name just yet so isn't going to get scooped up immediately. It's not ridiculous to consider Jennings a top 3 contender. I have a few reasons for this.

1) Rodgers and Jennings have only been together for one season. Things should and will only improve.

2) Rodgers missed Jennings at least 4 times that I remember last year on BIG plays that would have gone for 40+ yards and a possible TD. These are the plays that QBs and WRs who spend more time together get in sync on. I have no doubt that Jennings will be a league leader in 20+ and 40+ yard receptions.

3) The Green Bay offense is strong. Very strong. The shuffling of the offensive line that took place last season should be settled and will allow the running game to become a strength. Maybe some would look at this as a negative, but I see it as more opportunities for red zone TDs.

4) As with above, the improvement of James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley will open up the offense even more. However, Jennings is the man and will be the go to WR on most plays especially if a blitz is on.

5) The HC QB trust factor. McCarthy has stated he is going to allow Rodgers to run the offense more than last year. This is including calling plays at the line. Maybe this belongs more under Rodgers thread, but I believe that it is going to benefit Jennings and Driver and cause Grant to lose out on a couple of 1 yard TDs.

Greg Jennings Projections