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Spotlight - RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

Posted on 7/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

The New York Giants were an outstanding rushing team last season, posting a league-leading 157.4 yards per game on the ground. Brandon Jacobs finished as the 12th best fantasy back in non-PPR scoring last season with over 1,000 yards rushing on just 219 carries -- a gaudy 5.0 yards per carry (YPC). Adding to his value was his 15 rushing touchdowns, third in the NFL (DeAngelo Williams had 18, Michael Turner 17).

Much has changed for the Giants since last December, and most of it has been in Jacobs' favor as we look forward to this season. Derrick Ward, the second back for New York last season, has moved on and signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That move alone leaves Jacobs as the main back for the Giants entering 2009, as the only other running back with over 20 carries left from last season on the roster is Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw did post a 5.3 YPC last year, joining Ward and Jacobs with 5.0+ averages -- a strong testament to how dominant the ground attack in New York was in 2008.

The other big change for the Giants since last season will be the absence of Plaxico Burress. New York struggled with their passing attack after Burress' gunshot wound injury last year as they had no true WR1 to draw coverage and open up other receiving options for Eli Manning. That struggle could easily continue into 2009 with only Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith (the other one, not the Pro Bowler), Sinorice Moss and rookie Hakeem Nicks looking to become that go to wideout for the Giants to help balance their offense.

So putting all of that together, everything would point towards Derrick Ward's workload being split between Jacobs, Bradshaw and to a lesser amount a third RB that is yet to emerge. Rookie Andre Brown will likely compete with Danny Ware in training camp for the third spot on the depth chart, but neither should be expected to take many touches away from Jacobs or Bradshaw. Questions will remain as to how Ward's 223 touches will be split between Jacobs and Bradshaw, but odds are that Jacobs will take at least 60% of that workload while Bradshaw should dominate the 41 receptions that will be missed this year.

Jacobs does have two major drawbacks -- health and hands. Ever since Jacobs started to get regular workloads he has struggled to remain healthy, missing five games in 2007 and three more last season. Part of that is his physical style -- he appears to want to initiate contact and certainly does not shy away from it -- but that upright bruising style of his leaves him open to both fumbles and also injury. Fantasy drafters will have to weigh Jacobs' likely healthy production when he is in the lineup versus the good odds that he will miss a few games. As for his hands, well, let's just say that Jacobs won't be many Allstate insurance commercials any time in the near future. His paltry six catches last season (on just 12 targets) speaks some to his lack of catching ability but really points out the lack of confidence that Eli Manning has in his skill in the passing game. Jacobs often left the field for Ward or Bradshaw last year and Bradshaw will likely continue to replace him on passing downs again this year.

Positives

• Brandon Jacobs is a big back with a punishing style that the Giants will use early and often with no Derrick Ward this season
• His 15 touchdowns last year was third best in the league for running backs and helped him to finish as a Top 12 fantasy rusher in 2008
• With Derrick Ward gone Jacobs should see an increased workload, possibly gathering up over 250 carries this season
• While there are legitimate concerns about his health, when Jacobs is in the lineup his points per game numbers make him an instant fantasy starter and borderline RB1

Negatives

• Health. Jacobs has not played 16 games since his rookie year, when he barely saw the field. The last two seasons he has had over 200 carries but missed a combined eight games, or 25% of the possible playing time
• The Giants love to use a committee approach to their backfield, which means Jacobs will not be on the field all the time
• While Derrick Ward's departure should help his numbers, Ahmad Bradshaw (and a third RB) should also see more work and could continue to cut into Jacobs' touches
• Jacobs' inability to be a strong contributor on passing downs also limits his production, especially in PPR leagues

Final Thoughts

Brandon Jacobs is a fantasy starter and a RB1 option when you look at what he can do on a per-game basis. Sure he could miss some games, but you can probably say that about any NFL running back. Jacobs does not have good receiving skills, but his nose for the end zone make him way more valuable than any other RB that leaves the field on third and long. His 15 scores last year made him such a consistent scorer (10+ fantasy points in 10 of 13 games last year) that the lack of receptions, even in PPR leagues, can almost be overlooked. Jacobs will see extra work this year and can be had at a discounted draft spot because of the health risk and perceived threats to his carries from Bradshaw. With 500+ carries last season there is plenty of work available for both backs. Jacobs' current ADP has him going in Round 2, but he has Round 1 value. Fantasy drafters should strongly consider taking him early in Round 2 especially if they look for a stud wide receiver in Round 1.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Brandon Jacobs is a very fast fullback. He enjoys running over and through people. He tends to smash a lot of defenders and make the "he got jacked up" highlight reels with regularity. And because of these spectacular crashes, he also has a tendency to get nicked up and miss a few games. I think that it would be a great plan for him to learn to slide out of bounds occasionally.

I do enjoy watching him play and think that the Giants have the running game blocking and the back up RBs to keep Brandon Jacobs fresh. He is outstanding late in the game as the defense wears down and I think that the Giants will play to their strengths with defense and more ball control in 09.

In 07, he played 11 games and averaged 18 carries per game and 5.0 ypc. In 08, he played in 13 games, but averaged less caries at 17 per game and kept the 5.0 ypc. For his career, he has had only ten games with over twenty carries. He has only 4o receptions in four years. He needs to get the TDs to be the high scoring fantasy option because he does not get ample opportunities otherwise. He has averaged 5.0 ypc for two consecutive years, pointed out by David Yudkin to be extremely rare. He may do it again in 09 as he has a great offensive line and he seems to always fall forward, but he has not yet ever been the pound them in the ground RB. I see the Giants mixing in Bradshaw and the rookie enought to keep Jacobs fresh. I believe that his ADP of RB13 and 18th overall is not low for his expectations.

H.K.
Jacob's is a beast who finally has overcome the injury bug and will be the centerpiece of the entire Giant offense in 2009. No Ward to share his workload, no Burress to steal from him in the red zone, but still one of the best OL's in the game and it's all his and his alone. Considering his ADP, Jacobs is looking like the best RB value in FF this season, regardless of scoring system.

gonzobill5:
All offseason I've heard about how DeAngelo Williams will not come close to 2008's numbers because only "the best of the best" running backs have those kinds of seasons. What kind of argument is that? I wouldn't be surprised to see DeAngelo and Jacobs finish #1 and #2 this year and people will be scratching their heads as to why some guy who was picking near the turn landed both on his team.

gianmarco:
In response to David Yudkin's point, the flipside to this is the # of RB since 1960 to have back-to-back seasons with 200 carries and a 5.0 ypc: 9

Obviously the 3 David listed: Kelly, Faulk, Brown

And the six others:

Jacobs
Jim Taylor (61-62)
OJ Simpson (73, 75-76)
Barry Sanders (89-90, 94, 96-97)
Portis (02-03)
Tiki Barber (05-06)

In other words, that's a pretty distinguished list to be in anyway. And, 37% of the RB's who did do it two years in a row did it again to make it 3 in a row. In addition to that, 2 more of the guys who didn't get 3 in a row had 3 in 4 years (Sanders and Simpson). Thus, 67% of the RBs who did it 2 years in a row were able to add a 3rd within a 4 yr period.

So, while getting a 5.0 ypc average over 200+ carries for 3 straight years is pretty rare and mostly unchartered territory, doing it twice in a row is as well. Jacobs has already done that. Looking at what those others on the list have done, I think his chances of reaching that plateau again are considerably better than you're making them out to be.

Brandon Jacobs Projections