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Spotlight - WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Vincent Jackson has always been an intriguing fantasy option due his mix of tight end size and receiver speed. At 6'5 and 241 pounds he is truly a man amongst boys in the secondary and last season, he finally emerged as a legitimate top-12 receiver in fantasy football. At just 26-years of age this season, he is now just entering the prime of his career and should have a number of seasons where he is at the top of his game. The previous statement begets the question:

Just what does the 'top of his game' mean when we are discussing the virtues of Jackson? It is time to break down his potential statistics for 2009 and beyond.

Reasons for optimism

1) Jackson's blend of athleticism, size and speed: There have only been a handful of NFL receivers, both past and present, who have been blessed with a physical package such as what Jackson brings to the field. At 6'5 and 241 pounds, he has tight end size, creating huge mismatch problems on the field for opposing defenses. If defenses try to match up against him with single coverage from a cornerback, he creates havoc due to his size advantage over them. If a team tries to line up a linebacker on him, the linebacker can match him for size but Jackson is too fast for anybody at the position to contain. That leaves the safety position and being hybrids of size and speed, they may have the best chance to contain him but overall it is a nightmare to matchup on a player such as Jackson.

2) Jackson is only now hitting his stride: Jackson is one of those players coming out of college that need time to develop his craft. Coming out of obscure Northern Colorado, Jackson was not ready for the NFL game as a rookie and finished with only three receptions. The reality is he has increase his reception and yardage total in each of his first four seasons and last year culminated in a 1,098 receiving yard campaign. He also enjoyed his first three 100-yard receiving games at the NFL level last season. He had eight games with 4+ receptions in 2008 and finished as the Chargers top receiver, which is an excellent achievement with teammates such as TE Antonio Gates, WR Chris Chambers and RB LaDainian Tomlinson. He is only 26 years of age and entering his fifth NFL season and should be at the top of his game for at least the next four seasons.

3) Defenses simply cannot key on stopping Jackson: Not only can defenses not focus on Jackson, he may be their third or fourth concern on most plays and he is extremely difficult to contain one-on-one outside. With the talented TE Antonio Gates on the field, alongside veteran WR Chris Chambers and RB LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers are blessed with playmakers that are as good as anybody in the NFL although Gates and Tomlinson did see their statistics plummet in 2008. If Gates and Tomlinson are healthy, Jackson should find plenty of open spaces in the secondary to exploit.

4) The maturation of Chargers QB Philip Rivers: After a couple of seasons of steady, non-explosive play at quarterback, Rivers erupted with a huge 2008 season and is full of confidence heading into this season. Despite throwing only 478 passes, he threw for 4009 yards and 34 touchdowns. Those are amazing numbers with an average amount of attempts and he could continue to grow as a passer this season. Rivers is also turning just 28-years of age and is entering the prime of his career. He has developed a nice rapport with Jackson and that should result in many targets once again this season.

5) Contract year: This is the final year of Jackson's contract. He will be either an unrestricted free agent or a restricted one if a new CBA does not happen. He will have a lot to play for either way in 2009

Reasons for Pessimism

1) Jackson's lack of receptions: Even though Jackson finished as the 12th best fantasy receiver in 2008, he did so despite only catching 59 passes on the season (only 41st best in the NFL). He had an impressive 18.6 yards per attempt on the season which was 4th best in the entire league and ranked 11th in receiving yardage. If he does not find a way to elevate his receptions, it will not be easy to crack the 1000-yard mark in 2009.

2) Jackson's career high came in down seasons for Gates and Tomlinson: While it was obvious that Jackson was an improved football player last year, his elevated statistics came at a time in which both Gates and Tomlinson had significantly worse seasons than past form. Gates only managed 60 receptions, his lowest output since his rookie season while Tomlinson also had his worst season since his rookie campaign. If either or both of these veterans, re-discover their past form, their may not be enough balls to keep everyone happy within the offense and Jackson's statistics could suffer. The Chargers would like to run the ball more effectively and if they do so, the passing attack may once again take a back seat in San Diego.

3) Jackson had 2nd DUI this offseason: It appears he will dodge a bullet in regards to this offense but he is one more strike away to perhaps facing some real punishment going forward. This is certainly a 'red flag' to be aware of going forward.

Positives

• Incredible athleticism and size combination
• Small school players usually take time to develop. He is only now reaching his potential
• It is Jackson's contract year. He will be motivated to put up big numbers

Negatives

• Overall lack of receptions means he has to average 17+ per catch to put up fantasy starter numbers
• Gates and Tomlinson may return to past success this year. Last year both had down seasons allowing Jackson to pick up additional targets
• Offseason woes in regards to his 2nd DUI. One more and he'll face consequences

Final Thoughts

Jackson's production this year is very difficult to gauge. There is a strong possibility he can grow as a player this year and yet not finish with close to 1,100 receiving yards. If Antonio Gates can rebound to his past success and LaDainian Tomlinson can be better this year, it will in fact be difficult for Jackson to finish with more fantasy points in 2009. It is a lot to ask of Rivers to throw 30+ touchdowns again this season and in my opinion the best-case scenario for Jackson this year is slightly more receptions but less yardage.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

fightingillini:
VJax had a breakthough year in 2008. A lot of things contributed to that breakout year:

1) Rivers had a career year
2) LT was hurt for much of the year, so the running game was not as effective
3) Gates and Chambers were hurt for much of the year

So VJax had to step up, and he did. But I see SD going back to running the football...a more balanced offense similar to years before 2008. I think Jackson is a little overvalued at this point, especially in PPR leagues.

perry147:
The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target. I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.

TS Garp:
I don't see a huge fantasy year from Jackson. Consider that he only had 101 targets last season. You can look at that number and assume that if he put up 60/1100/7 on 101 targets, his numbers will rise as they trust him more and he gets more targets, but I think the Chargers will continue to spread the ball around, Malcolm Floyd should be back (and many people believe he's as talented -- or more talented -- than Jackson), and I don't know that you'll see the targets rise, and it's unlikely that he'll squeeze out that sort of production from 100 or so targets again.

Just Win Baby:
Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:

1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.

2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.

3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.

Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.

So what does all of that have to do with Jackson? Mainly that I do not believe there will be fewer overall opportunities in the Chargers passing game. Some have suggested a shift back to a more balanced offense will limit Jackson's targets, but I think there is plenty of room for the Chargers to run a lot more while at the same time throwing more. After all, the Chargers were only #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.

That said, I do think the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:

1. The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.

2. Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.

3. Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis combined for only 119 targets last season... that could easily go up with better health, since all but Naanee missed time due to injuries.

4. In particular, Floyd played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on just 37 targets. I really like Floyd's prospects this year. I think putting Gates, Jackson, and Floyd on the field at the same time really puts pressure on the defense.

I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season. Meanwhile, I think the RBs and TEs will collectively get about as many targets as they did last year. So I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets.

The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often (like I said, maybe up to 500 attempts, but hard to see more than that). I will say that if disaster struck and Tomlinson went down early for the season, I could see the offense swinging much more heavily to the pass, and there would be real value in this offense in that scenario.

Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):

1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)
2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr)
3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)
4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)

He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:

Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)
Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr)
Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)
Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)
Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)

62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. Not that this is necessarily unusual, since teams of course tend to pass more when behind. But it certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.

Finally, Jackson was very productive with 101 targets last season. Even if he gets more targets and/or catches, it is not a given that he will maintain the same productivity rate.

valhallan:
Last year all we heard was there wouldn't be enough touches to go around for VJax to be relevant and it feels like the same arguments this year. Gates and LT declined and it would not be surprising at all if they continued to slip further. Meanwhile, VJax has improved every year and turned into a game changer during the early '08 playoff run. I'm not ready call him the next Fitz or TO, but if the Chargers shift some of the offense to go through him as I suspect they will, we could be looking a low-end WR1.

Vincent Jackson Projections