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Spotlight - WR DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted on 8/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

The Philadelphia Eagles have been a bit of an anomaly in the Andy Reid years. The team ranks consistently among the top passing offenses, yet it rarely has what one would consider a true WR1. Of course Terrell Owens was the exception to that rule. Last season, the Eagles drafted diminutive yet explosive DeSean Jackson in the 2nd round and hoped he would contribute to the WR depth and provide the team with a difference-maker in the return game.

Even the most ardent Eagles fans couldn't have been prepared for what came next.

Week 1 -- 6 catches for 106 yards
Week 2 -- 6 catches for 110 yards

Jackson became only the 2nd receiver in NFL history to open his career with back-to-back 100-yard games. What's more surprising is that he did it playing for Andy Reid; a coach notorious for making rookies work their way into playing time (Jackson is the first rookie on offense to start in Week One).

On the season, Jackson finished with 62 receptions for 912 yards (14.7 YPR) and 2 TDs; good enough for a 29th place fantasy finish. Not eye-popping numbers, but enough to warrant enthusiasm that Jackson has a number of elite seasons in his future.

As fantasy owners decipher Jackson's situation for 2009, there are a number of factors to consider:

1) His quarterback, coaches and system remains intact -- Unlike his fellow rookie star, Eddie Royal of the Broncos, Jackson is back working with the same perennial Pro Bowler under center, with the same offensive system and the same coaches. Don't underestimate the importance of that as Jackson looks to make a natural progression from Year 1 to Year 2.

2) The WR corps is a lot deeper this year -- The Eagles used a 1st round pick on WR Jeremy Maclin, and 2007 leading receiver Kevin Curtis is back and fully healthy after dealing with the after effects of a sports hernia procedure in 2008. For a team that has a long history of spreading the ball around, this means fewer targets for all concerned. In Andy Reid's tenure (1999-present), the Eagles have only had TWO 1,000-yard receivers (Terrell Owens in 2004 and Kevin Curtis in 2007). Remember that.

3) Jackson needs to improve in key facets of the game -- While Jackson showed a lot as a rookie, his game is far from complete. He would at times break off routes last year, more due to a lack of concentration than lack of ability. When he's focused, Jackson is a great route runner, but he needs to approach every snap in the same way. On top of that, Jackson only scored 2 TDs last year; an unacceptably low number given his role. And last but not least, Jackson needs to generate more yards after the catch -- something that was considered his strong suit coming out of Cal.

Another thing to remember is that not all players who were great as rookies are destined to improve as 2nd-year players. In the Player Spotlight thread (see link below), I provide a more detailed analysis of this phenomenon. But here's the key take away, 21 rookie WRs before last year had at least 900 yards receiving. Of those 13 of 21 actually DECLINED as fantasy performers (on a per game basis) in Year 2.

Let's be clear, I'm NOT suggesting Jackson isn't going to improve. But I am suggesting that simply expecting him to improve because he had a good rookie season isn't a winning bet. With every player, you need to analyze their specific situation and determined whether the contributing factors argue for improvement.

Positives

• Jackson was impressive enough to start for a coach notoriously opposed to starting rookies, and in doing so he broke 900 yards and provided the Eagles their best deep threat
• Jackson came into the league as a crisp route runner and brilliant open field runner; strengths that if utilized at the NFL level should mean Jackson is capable of more than we saw last year, and in turn Top 20 fantasy numbers
• Donovan McNabb is a talented and productive QB and Jackson has clearly been his top target during OTAs and the preseason

Negatives

• Jackson showed lapses last year (6 drops, minimal YAC) and must markedly improve those metrics to warrant his current ADP
• The Eagles have only had two 1,000-yard receivers in the Andy Reid Era (Terrell Owens in 2004 and Kevin Curtis in 2007), and the return of a healthy Kevin Curtis and the decision to draft Jeremy Maclin make it unlikely we'll see a 3rd this year
• Jackson's size and inability to get off the line in space made him a relatively ineffective red zone target last year

Final Thoughts

DeSean Jackson has a ton of potential, and the ability and opportunity to deliver a Top-15 fantasy season. But at his current ADP (WR22), there is little room for error. The Eagles have a long history of spreading the ball around, and it's unlikely any WR will deliver consistent fantasy numbers week in, week out. Jackson's full season numbers should be quite good, and as long as you view him as a solid WR2 or excellent fantasy WR3, you're going to be happy to have him on your roster. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

TitusIII:
While Jackson is certainly an explosive athlete, I believe his size will always put a cap on his impact, in the NFL and fantasy football. He is the type of WR that every NFL team wants, as he can break open a game by himself, but I'm not targeting him in fantasy drafts. He will put up some monster seasons, ala Santana Moss, but I'm not banking on him being a yearly 8+ TD WR. He and Devin Hester will probably post similar stats this season, and in the future, imo...

travdogg:
DeSean Jackson is another one of my favorite players for this year, along with McFadden, Felix and Keller.

I think the Philly offense is going to explode this season, McNabb has more protection and more protection means more time for receivers to get open and this guy is the best Philly has. Just because Philly has a history of spreading the wealth several years doesn't mean its a lock to continue. You'd spread the wealth too if your #1 WR had been guys like Reggie Brown or James Thrash. Jackson is the most talented Eagle WR since Owens was there. Jackson put up just short of 1,000 yards as a rookie, which is a very rare feat for a rookie WR, yet he isn't really being hyped very much at all. I think some people are still nervous about his size, but I think that over the past few seasons we've learned that size isn't really a problem when you have speed to to burn and can get open quickly.

Some seem to think what he did last season is close to his ceiling, why is that? I realize that brown and Curtis missed some time and that allowed Jackson to get a jump start last year, but this year he's already ahead of those guys(and anyone else) and Jackson just missed on several big plays last year and with another year of experience and work with McNabb, I believe some of those near misses will become hits. The guy is only 22 and was in a west coast offense which is arguably the most difficult to learn offense there is for a WR. Yes he ran a similar offense in college, but the difference between this year and last year should still be monumental.

Jackson can get open deep, he can get open on short crossing patterns and he can take a quick pass to the house on any given play, I don't think we've seen anywhere near what he's capable of yet. I feel very strongly that he will be the best WR of the 08' draft class and is incredibly underrated in dynasty leagues.

renesauz:
Jackson's talent and high ceiling are undeniable. If he took a significant leap forward in year two, he could be a legit #1 wideout THIS YEAR. But what does that mean in Philly?????? While the Eagles should be one of the leagues top offenses, McNabb loves to spread the ball around. A return to health for Curtis and Brown, the addition of Maclin and McCoy, continued progression of Celek and the addition of another pass catching TE in Ingram, steady and reliable 3rd down option Avant...where are Jackson's targets going to come from? Except for T.O., McNabb has never force fed a WR talent.

Currently, Jackson has an ADP of WR23, which would necessitate an increase in production over 2008. I see that result as a bit optimistic. His talent, QB, and system suggest a very high ceiling, but barring multiple injuries in the Philly WR corps, a result close to last year is far more likely.

packersfan:
I think his floor is what he produced last season. I don't see him blowing up but I do think he can catch more passes and score a few more TDs. If Curtis struggles to stay healthy, I think Jackson has a clear path to be the Eagles' No. 1 WR this season. Even though they spread the ball around, I think Jackson is their most talented WR and I think Reid will find a way to get him the ball often.

DeSean Jackson Projections