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Spotlight - WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

The signing of T.J. Houshmandzadeh was big for the Seattle Seahawks. He was a mainstay for the Cincinnati Bengals since coming out of Oregon State. Houshmandzadeh enjoyed three consecutive Top 15 seasons before losing Carson Palmer to injury last year. The Bengals were not willing to pay him like a superstar receiver, but the Seahawks were more than happy to. So, the lanky sure-handed receiver moved back to the Pacific Northwest. This will be the first time since emerging in 2004 that Houshmandzadeh will not start the season with Carson Palmer at quarterback. The early reports have Houshmandzadeh and new quarterback Matt Hasselbeck on the same page. This is good news as the veteran will be learning a new offense. This will be his first opportunity to work in a West Coast Offense.

The Seattle Seahawks have endured several seasons with a void at the wide receiver position after letting Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson depart. The team brought in Deion Branch in 2006, but he has failed to top 750 receiving yards in a season. In 2008, with Matt Hasselbeck sidelined much of the season with injury, the Seahawks failed to have a receiver top 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards or five touchdown grabs. Houshmandzadeh goes from the prolific pass-happy Bengals to a Seahawk team that struggles getting the ball to its wide receivers. The good news is that Matt Hasselbeck is expected to be healthy and ready to bounce back in 2009. But, his injury history is a major concern.

Positives

• Houshmandzadeh is the only threat at the receiver position for the Seahawks. Deion Branch has indicated that his knee is not the same after multiple injuries and Nate Burleson is coming off of a knee injury himself. Fantasy owners can expect Matt Hasselbeck to force-feed the ball to Houshmandzadeh. In Cincinnati, Houshmandzadeh shared targets with Chad Ochocinco (Johnson). In Seattle, the other wide receivers are not threat for targets or touchdowns
• Houshmandzadeh benefits by playing in the NFC West. The division rivals of the Seahawks are much softer on defense than the Ravens and Steelers of the AFC North. The Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals are not terribly strong against the pass. In addition, the Seahawks face the teams in the NFC North and AFC South outside of their division in the 2009 season. There will be many opportunities for Houshmandzadeh to have big games
• The veteran receiver rarely misses time with injury. He has only missed five games in the past five seasons

Negatives

• The Seahawks struggle to get the ball to their receivers. The Seattle wide receivers have not been able to be fantasy factors in recent years. Even with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, and Mike Holmgren orchestrating his version of the West Coast Offense, the team has seen just five receivers top six receiving touchdowns since 2002. In addition, only five receivers eclipsed 900 receiving yards and only three topped 68 catches in this same time frame. In contrast, the Bengal high-powered offense afforded Houshmandzadeh and Ochocinco to top 900 receiving yards a combined eleven times in the same amount of time. The Seattle offense lacks the explosion of the one Houshmandzadeh left in Cincinnati
• The veteran receiver seems to have lost a step. He will turn 32 years old before the end of September. The last four seasons have seen his yards per reception average decline each and year. His 9.8 yards per reception average in 2008 indicates that Houshmandzadeh struggled to make plays after the catch. He is a pure possession receiver and not a down the field threat. This severely hinders his upside. Even though most projections have Houshmandzadeh with a yards per reception average above eleven, he has not topped 10.2 since 2006
• The Seahawks, and their new receiver, will need Matt Hasselbeck to stay healthy. If Seneca Wallace is the quarterback, expect a subpar season out of Houshmandzadeh. As stated above, the wide receivers struggled without their starting passer in the lineup last season
• The Seahawks lost Coach Holmgren this offseason to retirement. He is replaced by the Jim Mora, Jr. as the head coach. Mora was promoted from the offensive coordinator position. This team was molded and shaped by Holmgren for many seasons and may struggle to move the ball as the team transitions to the play-calling of Mora

Final Thoughts

Since 2002, only two Seattle receivers have caught at least 79 passes in a season. Also, only two Seahawks scored ten or more receiving touchdowns in a season in the same time window. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a dependable receiver who will be the focal point of the Seattle Seahawks passing game. He will see the lion's share of the pass targets. Seattle has little in terms of a running game. Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett are not weapons that make defenses respect the run. Houshmandzadeh has an ADP of WR15 and player 37 overall. Of the Footballguys.com projections, I lean toward those by Bob Henry and Maurile Tremblay on Houshmandzadeh. Yes, T.J. Houshmandzadeh offers stability and sure hands as a receiver, but there is risk in his situation. Much of the success or failure of Houshmandzadeh will depend on the health of Matt Hasselbeck. A healthy Hasselbeck gives Houshmandzadeh a chance at performing to his ADP.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

mlball77:
Wearing new colors this year makes TJ a tough player to forecast for 2009. However, it seems to me that he has a solid QB passing to him on a team without a proven elite WR. He will be sharing targets with the likes of Branch and Carlson, so I like the odds of TJ getting his in 09, I just don't expect huge things out of the Seattle offense in general. Hasselbeck was vocally a fan of the sure-handed, possession WR, Bobby Engram. I think he will find TJ to be a guy he can trust in the same manner, but that he is a guy that has a bit more upside.

rzrback77:
With TJ Housh, you are looking at a seventh round draft choice that improved in each of his first six seasons in the NFL, progressing from 21 catches to 41, to 73, to 78, to 90, and finally to 112 in 07. He used to be a bargain every year as folks said that Chad Ochocinco was the man and TJ was just getting catches in a possession role as Chad grabbed all the attention and coverage. But, you can't really argue with his success, especially over the last five seasons. He has finished in FBG non-ppr scoring as WR31, WR14, WR11, WR7, and WR31.

Now he is crossing the country going to a new team for the first time since being drafted. He will be 32 in the first month of the season and he's learning to adjust to a new system, a new QB, and possibly being considered the #1 WR for the first time. Will he always draw the top CB? Will other Seahawk WRs keep hiim from being double teamed? Is Hasselbeck healthy? Lots of questions. Will all these questions allow him to fall in drafts so that he remains a value pick? His current ADP is as WR15 and 35 overall, which seems quite high. Immediately after Welker and TO, and just before Roy Williams and Santonio Holmes.

Bobby Engram was the Seahawks leading WR in 08 catching only 47 passes in 13 games, but he is gone. Their current depth chart indicates that the #2 is Burleson, with Branch as the #3. These two caught 5 passes in only one game and 30 passes in 8 games. Alas, even more questions. I think that TJ does lead the team in 09, but his targets will be decreased from the past due to tougher coverage and a further split between all the WRs and Carlson, growing in his second season.

laughinboy_2000:
I may be one of the VERY few here that like Houshmandzadeh this year. Why? I think he may be a bit undervalued this year. Last year with a no name QB, Housh was still able to catch 92 passes and come close to 1000 yards. Now I know the TDs were not there, but the Bengals were a mess last year. He now comes across the States to play for a pass happy Seattle Seahawks team. He's got a veteran QB in Matt Hasselbeck who loves throwing the ball down to his "possession" WRs. Just ask Bobby Engram. With Engram now gone, what better player to add than Houshmanzadeh. This guy has consistently been a top "possession" WR. He's averaged 98 receptions the last three years. I definitely see him going over 90 yet again this year. Here are some factors to consider when drafting TJ this year.

- Weak conference
- Seahawks have no running game to speak of.
- Veteran QB who loves to throw the ball to his "possession" WRs.
- Will lead the team in catches, yards, and TDs.
- Very consistent, and IMO comes with little risk if drafted in the right spot.

Now think about where he's being drafted. He's a solid WR3 this year in PPR leagues if you can get him. I'm not believing this whole "he's in a new offense" type of talk. Hass will find a way to get him the ball early and often. If you're looking for good value in the 5th round or so, roll the dice on Housh. He may not get you a lot of TDs, but the receptions and yardage will be there. Don't underestimate Housh this year.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh Projections