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Spotlight - WR Torry Holt, New England Patriots

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Does it not seem very strange to be saying, Torry Holt of the Jacksonville Jaguars? After ten memorable seasons with the St. Louis Rams, including a Super Bowl title and six top-10 fantasy seasons, Holt has moved on to the Jaguars organization. At 33-years of age, he is at the point when many players' skills begin to slip and coming off his worst season as a professional receiver, one cannot help but ask these questions:

1&2) Just how much does Holt have left in the gas tank and can he stay healthy? 3&4) What impact will the move to Jacksonville have on Holt in 2009, and is David Garrard effective enough to get the ball to Holt consistently?

Before we address each question, let's take a moment to reflect on the enormity of what Holt has accomplished to date:

• Eight straight 80+ reception seasons until last year's slide
• Three 10+ touchdown seasons
• Eight straight seasons with at least 1,188 receiving yards
• Top 15 in both career receptions (869) and receiving yards (12,660)
• His career mark of 80.1 receiving yards per game is 2nd all-time
• Surprisingly never finished as the top receiver in fantasy football (non PPR leagues)
• 7-time Pro Bowler and 1 time All-Pro
• Averaged less than 13 yards per reception over the past four seasons

Questions #1 & #2 -- Just what does Holt have let in his gas tank? Can he stay healthy?

Last year was a very poor effort from Holt and the entire St. Louis Rams offense. There was no flow on the field, the quarterbacks struggled to get the ball into the receivers' hands and the receiving core struggled to get open consistently. For the first time, Holt struggled to create separation between himself and defenders and he never really got rolling throughout the season. While he has not missed many games over his career, he has been struggling with many nagging ailments over the past few years and it is quite possible that it has taken its toll on him. Not a big receiver at only 6' and 190 pounds, he is not build to withstand the monster shots that linebackers, safeties and the more-aggressive cornerbacks dish out on a weekly basis.

Perhaps the most telling statistic is Holt's declining yards-per-reception average. He has set or tied a career low in this area in each of the past four seasons, culminating in a career-worst YPR of only 12.4. Not only that but he has only found the end zone ten total times in his last two seasons after racking up 41 touchdowns in the previous four years.

If healthy, Holt still has the experience and talent to put together 80+ reception seasons for some time to come. His yards per reception totals will likely never elevate back up to the 14+ range but he can step into the Jaguars offense and create enough space to put together some good years of production. However if he struggles to put the nagging injuries behind him, there is certainly a chance that he may continue to see his statistics slide as he fades into the sunset.

Questions #3 & #4 -- What will the impact of the move to Jacksonville have on Holt? Can QB David Garrard elevate his play?

Holt has spent his entire career with the Rams organization. Now he has packed his bags and left for the Jaguars organization where he will play in 2009. Will this be a positive or negative move for Holt going forward?

That is a tough question to answer but the Rams were no longer the 'Greatest Show on Turf' or anything resembling that special era in which Torry Holt played a vital role. The offense had become predictable, dull and often ineffective and going to Jacksonville could be a blessing in disguise for the veteran receiver. Sometimes, as a player's career begins entering the 'twilight' years, a change of location can do wonders. Players such as Jerry Rice with the Raiders, Terrell Owens with the Cowboys and Irving Fryer with the Dolphins find a second wind with their new clubs. Holt struggled in St. Louis last season and needed a change. His best years were clearly behind him and the fans expectations of him being an elite receiver were unlikely to fade. Heading to Jacksonville may help him to refocus and re-commit himself in 2009 and beyond.

The Jaguars will feature a strong rushing attack this season led by RB Maurice Drew-Jones. Defenses will likely key first on slowing down the Jaguars rushing game and that should help Holt to avoid some double-teams throughout the year. The big question mark for Holt is how well can David Garrard play in 2009. Last year, Garrard struggled in the passing game and there is a very real chance that his production has already peaked. However to be fair to Garrard, he has not been blessed with a good receiving core and having a proven veteran such as Holt can only help his confidence going forward. If Garrard cannot improve, Holt may find it difficult to reach the 1000-yard mark in this offensive system.

Even if Garrard does play well, Holt may struggle thanks to the lack of other receivers to take the defensive focus away from him. The next best receiver on the team may be RB Drew-Jones and if somebody does not elevate their play in preseason to give a legitimate #2 presence at receiver, Holt may find himself struggling against the best cover cornerback on the opposing team plus a double team from the safety position. Holt likely does not have the speed and quickness anymore to consistently defeat a good double-team.

Positives

• He has the swagger that only a top veteran at a position can bring to the field. He brings confidence and a proven level of excellence that the Jacksonville Jaguars were sorely lacking
• When healthy, Holt still has the skill set necessary to frustrate opposing defenses. His route running is exceptional and he knows all the tricks to get open
• He'll be focused and hungry to erase last season's disappointment

Negatives

• Last year, he appeared to be an 'old' 32-years old receiver and it is possible that the nagging ailments he has suffered over the years have caught up to him
• He has been with the same organization throughout his entire career and it is unclear how he will adjust to the move to a new city
• The Jaguars offensive system is very different from the wide open 'Greatest Show on Turf' era he was blessed to be a part of while with the Rams

Final Thoughts

Perhaps Torry Holt is not the elite receiver he was a couple of years ago in St. Louis but there is no question that he is a huge upgrade at the position for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He brings experience and ability to the Jaguars who were sorely lacking in production at receiver last year. If he can stay healthy, there is no reason to expect fewer than 75 receptions and 900+ receiving yards and there is some upside from there. Expect Holt to have a rebound season and return to fantasy starter material.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ketamine Dreams:
This guy is on the way out. Last year was the fall off the precipice we all knew was coming, (just like Marvin Harrison). Getting drafted too high based on named recognition. His knees are toast and he has lost several steps. Being drafted as a low-end #2 WR which doesn't make any sense to me. He finished as WR #36 after 16 weeks in PPR last year. He goes from turf to grass, from an average passing team to a below-average passing team, and is now another year older.

rzrback77:
I am not keen on Torry Holt's 09 prospects. I do think that he will have a positive impact on the Jags as he has historically been a good teammate and a hard worker (last season was not typical). However, he has had knee issues lately and has obviously slowed down physically. I think that the Jags will improve on their passing offense this year, but I think that the receiving pie will be split into quite a few pieces. I believe that Holt's value will be as a veteran mentor to the otherwise extremely young Jaguar WRs. Walker (if healthy), Thomas, and Dillard should all benefit from Holt's experience.

Holt's production should not keep pace with his ADP which is now WR33 and 89 overall. I would not be surprised if some of the Jags other WRsmove up in ADP as their success in the pre-season is documented.

MAC_32:
I don't like his knees, but after simmering on this one all month I think the potential reward is worth the risk where Holt's being drafted.

Given their offseason moves I think the Jags plan to lean on the pass a bit heavier this year. Their D is still a work in process, their only proven RB is a quality pass catcher, the tackles acquired in the draft are known more for their pass blocking, and they spent three picks on WR's. All the signs point toward a pass heavy attack and while there is a lot of potential talent at WR on this team Holt's the only proven commodity. I do not like his knees at all, he could be finished, but given where he's going in drafts the potential reward's justified.

Torry Holt Projections