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Spotlight - WR Devin Hester, Chicago Bears

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

For some players, the variance of opinion is minor. For example, most fantasy football players accept that Peyton Manning is a stud. They may disagree about whether he’s going to throw 28 TDs or 31 TDs, but they generally agree he’s going to put up big numbers. The variance between his high and low projections is going to be minimal. Then there are the players with massive variance. Usually these are players who are unproven or whose situation has undergone massive change. In that case, you’re more likely to see a range of expectations that may run from ‘stud’ to ‘dud’ and everything in between.

Devin Hester is, most certainly, a player with a wide variance of expectations.

If you take the time to read through the Player Spotlight thread (see link below), you’ll see that some fantasy owners fully expect Hester to break out and put up 1,100+ yards and 8+ TDs. Others aren’t sure he’ll even crack 600-700 yards receiving. Our staff is equally divided on his prospects. As I type this, one staffer ranks Hester 23rd while another has him 55th; and most are somewhere in between.

Players like this are, by definition, boom/bust. Hester is a mid-round pick (ADP of WR33 currently) and is going to be a subjective choice. Whereas anyone would draft Larry Fitzgerald at some point (whether it’s the 1st, 2nd or, if you’re pig headed, 3rd round), quite a few fantasy owners probably would pass on Hester at any draft position; while others will probably reach for him a few rounds above ADP because they don’t want to miss out on his “breakthrough” season.

The most obvious reason for optimism = Jay Cutler
I’m on record as loving the trade for Jay Cutler. He’s the best QB Chicago has had in the modern era, and gives them a legitimate franchise passer to build around. Cutler should, eventually, make everyone in that offense better. And as we saw in Denver, Cutler has no problems throwing the deep ball nor does he shy away from targeting his favorite receivers with abandon. One could argue that Cutler’s arm strength, plus his willingness to throw downfield, dramatically changes Hester’s prospects. After catching 51 receptions for 665 yards and 3 TDs in his first season as a starter, many think Hester could explode this year catching deep bombs from Cutler.

Hester is also still maturing as a receiver
Devin Hester was a jack of all trades at the University of Miami, and then was an All Pro return man in Chicago before the team decided to have him focus on his receiving skills. To say he’s an unfinished product would be putting it mildly. One could argue that Hester has more room to take a quantum leap forward than most projected starting wideouts, because he’s literally still learning the position.

There is past precedent for NFL returners to morph into excellent receivers
It’s not unusual for dynamic returners to become quality NFL receivers; although being a return man is by no means a guarantee of a successful transition. Two examples that come to mind are Steve Smith and Joe Horn. Smith led the NFL in return yards as a rookie in 2001 and only caught 10 passes on offense. He’s since become one of the game’s best pass catchers. Joe Horn, meanwhile, was used exclusively as a returner for most of his early career in Kansas City, but caught 94 passes in his first season in New Orleans as a starting wideout.

The Bears are committed to Hester as a wide receiver
It’s one thing to throw Hester into the offense as a deep threat. But the coaches are clearly committed to him as an all-around, full-time receiver as evidenced by their decision to remove Hester from the kickoff return team. You don’t remove one of the league’s best returners from special teams if you’re not serious about his role on offense.

All that said, I’m still not sold on Hester breaking out
Don’t get me wrong, I can see the argument for it. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Hester averaged 18+ yards per catch this year, which probably would put him over the 1,000-yard mark. But I can’t draft him expecting that nor am I projecting him for those kinds of numbers.

For the Bears offense to flourish, it needs receivers that can catch balls consistently, and make yards after the catch. While Hester is a good open field runner, I don’t think he’s going to generate a lot of YAC. He’s more of a start and stop kind of guy, and isn’t a natural route runner. He rounds off his routes too much, and talented defensive backs will be all over him. Given his size (5’9”, 185 pounds), and inexperience at the position, Hester is going to have trouble getting off the line at times. When he does get downfield he’ll burn people, but he’s going to be held up in traffic quite often, too.

I expect Cutler to spread the ball around, and the leading receivers are probably not WRs
Cutler isn’t going to latch onto one particularly player like he did with Brandon Marshall in Denver. Marshall was a complete, polished pass catcher �" the Bears don’t have that. With Earl Bennett (Cutler’s top target in college), two good TEs (Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark), and a RB who caught 63 passes as a rookie. As a result, I don’t see any WR, Hester included, seeing more than 100 or so targets in 2009, tops.

Positives

• Hester is dynamic in the open field, and should be able to get over the top a handful of times this season
• Jay Cutler is a marked improvement at QB
• The Bears have clearly committed to Hester on offense, he's no longer returning kicks

Negatives

• Hester is raw, and neither a confident hands catcher nor a polished route runner
• It's conceivable that Greg Olsen, Earl Bennett and Matt Forte will see more targets
• For all his dynamic speed, Hester's size and lack of experience on offense is going to make it hard for him to get off the line cleanly at times

Final Thoughts

Devin Hester could be a total waste of a roster spot, or could under ideal circumstances be a solid WR3 in traditional redraft leagues. I'm leaning toward somewhere in between because I think he's a natural enough burner to catch a number of deep passes for scores. Unfortunately Hester isn't polished and I think he's going to be a boom/bust type. There will be weeks when he goes 4 for 120 and a score, and others where he catches 1 for 8 yards. That's perfectly fine for many league formats (e.g., best ball), but he's not a guy I'm drafting as a starter. At his current ADP, he does little for me.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

kremenull:
The Bears' WR unit has not presented much of a threat to defenses over the past few seasons. But with a QB of Jay Cutler's ilk, I would not be surprised to see the WRs on the Bears perform much better than most anticipate this season. When a QB is able to make quick decisions as well as throw strikes all over the field, even average WRs can put up some decent to very good numbers. Given more opportunities and more accurate delivery of the football, I can easily see Hester exceeding the consensus expectations for the '09 season. I am not at all impressed with the group as a whole, and Hester has the most physical ability of any WR on the team with regards to gaining separation, RAC, and overall playmaking ability. Over the last quarter or so of '08, Hester was receiving an uptick in targets and that trend will rollover to this season. For those expecting Hester to fall short of improvement over last year or even a possible all-out flop, I would look again and evaluate the situation a bit more closely. I'm buying......at the right price, of course.

Just Win Baby:
Last year, Chicago ran 991 plays, including somewhere in the neighborhood of 575 passing plays (528 passing attempts, 29 sacks, 27 rushing attempts for Orton and Grossman, less some planned QB sneaks). That left 397 rushing attempts for the RBs and 10 rushing attempts for the WRs.

Bears offense under Lovie:

In 2008, Chicago ran 991 plays, including approximately 575 passing plays (combining passing attempts, sacks, and most QB rushing attempts)... that's 58.0% passing plays.
In 2007, Chicago ran 1035 plays, including approximately 635 passing plays (61.4%).
In 2006, Chicago ran 1042 plays, including approximately 565 passing plays (54.2%).
In 2005, Chicago ran 937 plays, including approximately 474 passing plays (50.6%).
In 2004, Chicago ran 967 plays, including approximately 575 passing plays (50.6%).

During Lovie's tenure, the defense has been great in 2 seasons (2005 & 2006) and average to poor in the other 3 seasons. The running game has been above average in 2 seasons (2005 & 2006) and average to poor in the other 3 seasons. Unsurprisingly, 2005 & 2006 were the two seasons under Lovie that the Bears were good and made the playoffs. I assume he would like to win games with defense and by controlling the clock, if possible, since that is what has worked for him.

We can throw out 2004 since it is so far back and because Lovie was in his first year. We can throw out 2005 & 2006 because the defense and running game were much stronger and 2007 because the running game was so much weaker. Last year seems to be the most reasonable comparison in terms of the offensive playcalling.

But what about Cutler? I think they'll hold the passing plays around the same percentage, if not slightly lower, hoping that the passing will be more effective and thus more productive without shifting to more of a pass heavy offense. This should also make the running game more effective, and the combination of these, and perhaps an improved defense, should mean more plays. I'll project 1020 plays, with the passing plays broken down like this:

550 passing attempts, 25 sacks, and 25 scrambles for Cutler (along with 15-20 called QB rushing attempts).

So how should those targets break down? Here is last year's breakdown:

Forte 77
Other RBs 29
Total RBs 106

Hester 92
Davis 67
Lloyd 50
Booker 49
Other WRs 2
Total WRs 260

Olsen 82
Clark 73
Other TEs 0
Total TEs 155

This year, Iglesias and Bennett replace Lloyd and Booker, and again there should be 4 WRs active in the passing game. I think Hester will likely lead the team in targets, but I don't think he will be significantly ahead of Bennett. So, how many targets will he get?

Last year, the RBs and TEs combined to get roughly 50% of the targets. They were effective in their roles, and with Forte and Olsen as potential emerging stars, I don't see that dropping. So I'll assume the WRs will get half of the targets. Last year, Hester got roughly 35% of the WR targets. I expect that will go up a bit, so I'll give him 110 (40% of the WR targets).

On his 92 targets last season, he posted 51/665/3 (13.0 ypr). First off, that is a 55% catch rate. With Cutler, who will presumably be more accurate, along with Hester's presumed season over season improvement, if he can raise his catch rate to 58%, that yields 64 catches.

He averaged 13.0 ypr last year and 14.9 ypr the year before on a much more limited sample set. Some people are apparently thinking he will significantly boost those numbers this year, but I'm not seeing it. Yes, Cutler is a better deep passer than Orton, I agree with that. However, I'm not convinced Cutler will have a lot more time to wait on those deep patterns than Orton did. I think 14.5 ypr is reasonable.

For his career he has caught a TD roughly once every 14 catches. Again, there could be an uptick with better deep passing from Cutler, but I don't see Hester as a big red zone threat, which limits his scoring upside. I'll go with 5 TD catches, a slight improvement in his career rate (and a greater improvement over last season).

So that is 64/928/5 receiving. I think his usage in the Wildcat and on reverses will be limited due to his value on special teams and as the Bears' #1 WR... I think 8/50/0 rushing is reasonable.

Mighty Mice:
Expecting his targets to go from 92 to 110 may be unrealistic. I would think TE targets increase with Olsen entering his prime. I also expect Bennett to be a better target than Lloyd or Booker was last year. I also think (have to dig to find this) that most of last year when Hester was at WR he was not covered by the opponents #1CB. If this year he enters the season as the #1 option, he may draw the top CB. If so, don't you think his catch % will assuredly go down, not up?

Devin Hester Projections