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Spotlight - QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

You have to throw out last season if you want to effectively analyze the Seattle Seahawks fantasy prospects. 2008 was essentially a perfect storm of problems for the team; and it wasn't representative of a long history of fantasy success for both QB Matt Hasselbeck and his supporting cast.

Let's quickly review all the things that went wrong in 2008:

• Mike Holmgren was playing out the string, a lame duck coach
• Matt Hasselbeck missed 9 games with a bulging disc in his back
• Nate Burleson missed 15+ games with a torn ACL
• Bobby Engram missed nearly a month
• Deion Branch missed half the season (and was a shell in the other half)
• Courtney Taylor missed six weeks
• Walter Jones was hurt all year and missed a month

It stands to reason no team, and no quarterback, could have managed any fantasy relevance with so many problems. So the question is, are things better this year? Some certainly are, but this isn't a team without questions, either.

The Good: Matt Hasselbeck is healthy again
Hasselbeck was back practicing with the team early in the preseason and made a point of showing up to camp a few days early to get extra work in. He's been without limitation in camp, and there's no indication his bulging disc should be a persistent concern.

The Good: When healthy, he's been a consistently good fantasy player
He's a career 60% passer who has thrown 147 TDs against just 94 career interceptions in 103 starts. He knows this offense inside and out, and has the capability of making smart adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Even though he might not look the part, Hasselbeck is athletic and mobile, averaging almost 4 yards per rush. He's got a strong arm, can make any throw, and doesn't fixate on any one receiver. His per game fantasy production is consistently above average (putting aside last year's lost season):

The Good: T.J. Houshmandzadeh signed with Seattle
I'm not personally convinced T.J. Houshmandzadeh is an elite fantasy receiver, but there's absolutely no question he's a marked improvement over Seattle's receivers of late. Signed to a big free agent contract, Housh will be Seattle's top receiver and find himself in the position of WR1 for the first time in his career. Housh runs good routes, is physical, and should catch a ton of passes from Hasselbeck. His signing also helps slot the rest of the WR corps, with Nate Burleson (back from his ACL injury) now the WR2 (a much more natural spot for him), and allowing rookie Deon Butler to play the slot.

The Good: John Carlson is a stud ready for a breakout season
TE John Carlson was a revelation as a rookie. 55 receptions for 627 yards and 5 TDs as a rookie hints at potential greatness. Consider for a moment the rookie achievements of today's great TEs. Jason Witten caught 35 for 347 and 1 TD as a rookie. Tony Gonzalez had 33 for 368 and 2. Antonio Gates had 24 for 389 and 2 TDs. In other words, these guys did half of what Carlson did. The sky is the limit for JC this year with Hasselbeck back under center.

The Good: The New OC is keeping the system
Jim Mora moved quickly to bring in Greg Knapp as offensive coordinator. Knapp served as Mora's OC in Atlanta previously, and is deeply rooted in the same traditional WCO that Mike Holmgren ran. Knapp has a different approach on the ground (he prefers a zone-blocking scheme) but the passing playbook will be comfortably familiar to Hasselbeck and the other veterans.

The Bad: Walter Jones went under the knife again in August
Walter Jones had to have a second procedure on his knee in August, and it's possible he could miss the entire season. Jones is one of the best tackles of his generation, and even at 80% he's better than what most teams trot out each Sunday.

The Bad: Nate Burleson has to stay healthy
The Seahawks are waiting to get a full return on their investment in Nate Burleson. It seems that whenever he appears ready to break through, he gets hurt. Last year he tore his ACL. This offseason we've heard a similar refrain. He's healthy. He looks great in practice. And the team plans on starting him opposite T.J. Houshmandzadeh. If Burleson doesn't stay healthy (a high probability bet), the Seahawks will have to rush rookie Deon Butler into the lineup.

The Bad: The running backs aren't much help
Julius Jones is on a short list of the worst starting running backs in the league, and T.J. Duckett is a one-dimensional short yardage option. That leaves the Seahawks with two problems. One, they're not going to be productive enough to keep defenses from keying on the passing game. Two, neither is a difference maker as a receiver, meaning Hasselbeck will have to look elsewhere for his outlet check down.

Positives

• Matt Hasselbeck has been a Top 10 fantasy QB on a per game basis for the majority of his career
• Coming off a bulging disc and a 4-12 season, he's available late in your draft
• His receiving corp looks much improved with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the further maturation of TE John Carlson, the healthy return of Nate Burleson, and the addition of rookie Deon Butler

Negatives

• Nate Burleson is a risky bet and if he fails to deliver, opposing defenses may be able to limit Houshmandzadeh's effectiveness (he's not used to being doubled every snap)
• Walter Jones may be lost for the year, and the offensive line has question marks beyond that
• The RB corps wont' help in the receiving game nor will they keep opposing defenses from keying on the pass

Final Thoughts

There's a lot to like about Matt Hasselbeck this year as a fantasy backup QB. He's being drafted QB16 (106th overall), which means you can target him in the 10th round or later. The chance to secure a proven veteran that late as your backup is something you shouldn't take lightly, particularly because Hasselbeck has proven to be a Top 10 fantasy caliber passer when he stays in the lineup. You could do much worse than Hasselbeck as your backup this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Kiddnets:
Low risk with high reward - that's how I see Hass this year. you can grab him as a backup but he has potential to be a good starter if...he just stays healthy.

MAC_32:
Seattle has a gluttony of good-but-not great pass catchers that all do different things well, couple that with a sub par running game and you have a recipe for lots of throwing, more than Knapp + Mora want to do but this is the hand they've been dealt. Hass is a bargain where he's being drafted.

a_troll00:
One could say Matt Hasselbeck is a very good QB. One could also say Matt Hasselbeck is a very good QB with back problems. One could also say Matt Hasselbeck is a very good QB with back problems that is one hit/sack away from his bulging disk flaring up again.

TheFanatic:
With that running game and a TD hawk like Housh I see a lot of goal line passing plays rather than run plays. At least more than most teams inside the 5...That could pad the TD total.

Matt Hasselbeck Projections