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Spotlight - RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

Ryan Grant's 2008 season was somewhat disappointing, compared to his break out performance the year prior. Grant's 2007 season featured a 5.1 YPC average that amassed 956 yards on just 188 carries. The 2008 season saw an increase in carries (312), but a decrease in over a yard less per carry (3.9 YPC). On the bright side, he did have a better second half of the season and actually finished as the 12th ranked RB after week eight. Perhaps the reasoning behind that was his preseason holdout and lingering hamstring injury that didn't fully go away until several weeks into the season.

What can we expect in 2009? Expect Grant to be the team's primary RB once again. Ryan Grant was one of five RBs in the league that had 300+ rushes last year. The others include: Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis and Matt Forte. What each of these teams have in common is an offensive system that employs one feature RB. The four RBs on this list (not including Grant) averaged a fantasy ranking of 4.25. Compare that to Grant's #22 ranking. Keep in mind his ranking jumps to #12 if you forget about his first seven games.

Ryan Grant - 1st half 2008 vs. 2nd half 2008
Games 1-8 = 3.5 YPC, 7.7 FP/gm
Games 9-16 = 4.2 YPC, 12.5 FP/gm

Grant averaged a rushing TD every 23.5 carries in 2007, but in 2008 it was once every 78.0 carries. That's a big difference. Why were Grant's rushing TD numbers in 2008 less than 2007? Here's some factors to consider...

*** Aaron Rodgers had nine TDs passes over 20 yards. That's nine drives that ended before the team even reached the red zone. Less red zone chances, less rushing TDs
*** The Packers passed the ball 59% of the time in 2008 and only had 65 rushing attempts inside the red zone, which ranked 20th in the league
*** Rodgers himself had four rushing TDs, three of which were from one yard out
*** The team had only 11 rushing TDs compared to 28 passing TDs

Positives

• Grant's lingering hamstring injury and training camp holdout from last year likely was the cause for his poor first half to the 2008 season. If his second half performance and 12th place ranking among RBs after week eight is indicative of his 2009 outlook, he could be in line for a Top 10 finish
• Grant had 267 more carries than his next closest teammate in 2008. He accounted for 82.7% of the team's rushes for running backs, which was the highest percentage of a team's rushing output in the league. More than Clinton Portis (80.4%), Adrian Peterson (78.2%) and Michael Turner (76.7%)
• The Packers scored 26.2 points per game in 2008 and ranked 8th in total offensive yards. Grant is the primary RB of a solid offensive team that will have plenty of scoring opportunities in 2009
• Health should not be a concern and he will participate fully in training camp and preseason, which he was unable to do last year
• 14 of his 18 receptions last year came after week 10

Negatives

• The Packers and Aaron Rodgers were all about passing the ball last year. Perhaps it was due to Grant's low 3.9 YPC average or maybe it just suited their offense to pass more. Either way, the team was among the third worst in rushing TDs. In order for Grant to be a Top 10 RB, that will have to change
• The knock on Grant is that he is primarily a north and south runner, without much elusiveness. He has some size to him at 6-foot-1 218 pounds, but he lacks the ability to consistently make defenders miss. If he doesn't run down hill, after a first step cut he seldom has good positive yardage
• His ADP of 33 RB17 suggests that his value is above where he finished last year (22nd ranking). In order for him to be a great value, his draft stock will have to fall just a bit more to move him into a fourth round pick (in 12-team re-draft leagues)
• His reception totals dropped going from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers at QB. With Favre he had 30 catches in roughly 8-10 games of full time action. With Rodgers, he had 18 catches in 16 games. His yards after the catch (YAC) has never been outstanding, partly due to his inability to consistently make defenders miss in open space

Final Thoughts

You won't find a veteran feature RB like Grant that has the ability to reach 300 carries that late in the draft, with the exception of possibly Thomas Jones. Grant has the ability to put up Top 10 numbers if things bounce his way. He's the primary back on a good offensive team that will have plenty of scoring opportunities. He should be a lock for 250-280 carries and if he maintains his 2008 post week eight 4.2 YPC average, he should reach anywhere from 1100 - 1250 yards rushing. If things really improve and he maintains his high percentage of the team's carries, he could elevate into the 1300-1400 yard range. Last year, the Packers scoring chances from a rushing standpoint were few and far between, simply because Rodgers found more success passing the ball. If the running game picks up, the scoring chances for Grant will as well. He could see upwards of 7-9 TDs, possibly more.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Chicago Hooligan:
There's no good reason to think Grant will "lose his job" or become part of a platoon approach. Among Green Bay's RBs, Grant is the man. People who don't follow the team closely might not be confident in his ability to keep producing on the field and in the FF box scores because he isn't flashy, but I expect him to be better this year than last, when he held out all summer and had a hamstring injury linger through many weeks.

A lock for 1,200 yards from scrimmage, minimum, and I expect the TDs (5) and ypc (3.9) to increase. A good RB2, and a great value in the third round if so many people are skittish about drafting him.

gianmarco:
As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.

rzrback77:
I just did a little stat crunching on the pass catching comparisons:

Ryan Grant 08 22 targets 18 catches 81.8% 116 yards 6.4 ypc 1 TD
Brandon Jackson 08 39 targets 30 catches 76.9% 185 yards 6.2 ypc 0 TD

Not much difference in effectiveness. I also noticed that Grant had only 4 catches in the first eight games and then grabbed 14 in the second half of the season. Is it possible that his pre-season injuries and lack of work limited his involvement in the passing game early in the year?

Oh and Chris Johnson 08 62 targets 43 catches 69.4% 260 yards 6.0 ypc 1 TD Isn't he supposed to be the shiftiest thing around? It seems to me that the QB setting up the play and the down field blocking as well as the running back's abilities

JamesTheScot:
Grant got more carries last year because the staff felt he was the best option running the ball...even when his lack of explosiveness and ailing hammy presented Jackson with ample opportunity to eat into Grant's carries. That's the only explanation that makes any sense. And it doesn't speak highly of their thoughts on Jackson as a bellcow.

It could be that they felt Jackson was a better option in the passing game and thus got those opportunitites. But it's also very possible that they were trying to limit Grant's workload some last season to nurse him along both conditioning wise and hamstring wise. If they thought he was significantly better than Jackson at rushing, but that Jackson wasn't a liability or drop-off in the passing game, it would make sense that they tended to pigeon hole the two of them in those roles to maximize the on field production while spelling Grant and rehabbing his hammy.

So it's possible Jackson continues in his 2008 role. It's also possible that a healthy Grant doesn't need to be nursed along and gets more targets this season. But unless he stumbles worse than last year or Jackson has made some significant improvment in the offseason (which we haven't heard about), I don't see any significant loss of carries to Jackson in 2009.

Ryan Grant Projections