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Spotlight - RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Frank Gore is a bargain at the end of the first round if you don't consider him too big of an injury risk.

Gore has achieved success at every level of football. He rushed for 2,953 yards his senior year in high school and was rated the top RB prospect in the nation by several publications. At the University of Miami, he was named the Sporting News' Big East Freshman of the year as a true freshman. As a sophomore, he had beaten out Willis McGahee in the spring of 2002 before tearing an ACL. After sitting out his sophomore season, he was productive in 2003 and 2004, finishing his college career with 2,500 rushing yards and a 7.2 YPC.

After splitting time with Kevan Barlow as a rookie, Gore became a full-time starter in his second year with the 49ers and, playing all 16 games for the only time in his career, was the #4 fantasy RB (FBG scoring). He rushed for 1,695 yards and added another 485 yards as a receiver.

Gore has thus demonstrated his upside potential -- when he is healthy, he can be among the top RBs in the league.

That caveat, however, is a big one. Gore has had trouble staying healthy dating back to his college days. In the NFL, he's avoided major season-ending injuries, but he's been nagged by a variety of smaller injuries that have hampered his play: an injured groin in 2005, a broken bone in his hand in 2007, a concussion, neck injury, and ankle injury in 2008.

Gore should have several advantages in 2009 that he lacked in 2008. Primarily, (1) offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye's offense should emphasize the run much more than Mike Martz's offense did; and (2) he gets Moran Norris back to lead-block from the fullback position. Gore credits Norris for playing a big role in paving the way for Gore's Pro Bowl season in 2006. (These two points are related: Mike Martz had little use for the fullback position, which is what made Norris expendable in 2008.)

Even so, it is easy to forget how productive Gore was through the first two-thirds of 2008 before he was slowed by a concussion and neck injury in week 11, then an ankle injury a few weeks later.

Through the first 11 weeks of the 2008 season, Gore was the #3 fantasy RB (FBG scoring). Thus even in an offense that at times seemed to ignore the run, Gore proved his ability to put up big fantasy numbers.

Rookie Glen Coffee will replace the departed DeShaun Foster as Gore's backup, but he's not a threat to eat into Gore's workload in any major way as long as Gore stays healthy.

Positives

• Gore is a supreme talent as a rusher; he has averaged 4.7 yards per carry so far in his NFL career. He is the first RB in 49ers team history to rush for 1,000 yards in three consecutive seasons
• Gore is also a productive receiver; he has averaged 52 receptions over the past three seasons, and has led the team in receptions in two of those seasons
• With Mike Martz out of the picture, the 49ers are expected to emphasize the running game, making Gore the focal point of the offense

Negatives

• The biggest knock on Gore has been his inability to stay healthy. While he has missed only 5 games in 4 years as a pro, he has often been slowed by minor injuries that have kept him from fulfilling his potential
• The 49ers' offensive line is well below average
• The 49ers will be implementing their fourth offensive playbook in as many years, and the team lacks an established receiving threat to keep defenses honest

Final Thoughts

I think Gore is underrated heading into 2009. He has always been exceptionally productive when he's been healthy, and I believe his prior injuries resulted more from bad luck than any inherent propensity for injury. Through the first 11 weeks last season, Gore was on pace to finish has a top three fantasy RB before he was derailed by injuries. This season he's in a better situation -- he has a coaching staff that wants to establish the run, and he has a physical lead blocker he's proven to work well with. In addition, he has an attractive schedule playing in the NFC West, and a fortuitously-timed week 16 game against the Detroit Lions.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Mikel0254:
With Singletary at the helm starting Week 1 and only Glen Coffee to fight for carries, I think Gore is in for a GREAT year. I don't think he repeats his 2006 numbers, but I definitely think he'll put up Top 5 numbers. Remember, he was one of the best RBs in FF up until week 12 last year. I think a lot is made of his injuries, yet he's only missed 5 games in 4 years. I know he's banged up and bruised a lot, yet he's one of the more consistent RBs and one of the few who won't be splitting significant carries this year.

rzrback77:
Frank Gore had an awesome season three years ago and has slipped some since. In 06, he was the RB4 with 1695 yards rushing and 485 yards receiving with 9 TDs. In the previous two years, he has finished as RB9 and RB14, first missing one game and then last season two.

He remains the only option for the 49ers as their RB depth is weak so he shoulkd continue to be the work horse unless injured. The 49ers seemed to turn the corner some toward the end of last season and have added Crabtree and Brandon Jones to the WR roster. The main problem with their WRs has been no take charge guy. They have five or six somewhat capable WRs and a thought to be talented TE, but they have not had a lot of recent success. If their passing attack steps up the productivity and especially if they develop a go to WR, then Gore should be able to improve his ypc on the ground. I think that he is aptly slotted currently at an ADP of RB8 and 9 overall. He could pay handsome rewards for a low first round pick.

Ghost of Bill Walsh:
He's only 26 and should be entering the prime of his NFL career. Has had a few injury bugs but hasn't missed a whole lot of games. He plays with a lot of heart and determination. His current ADP is at RB9 and will be a good RB1 getting him late in the first round. Gore's situation is also improved by no longer having Mike Martz as OC. Singletary wants to get back to the old type of Bill Walsh WCO somewhat and that benefits Frank. If the receiving core improves, as I expect it to with new stud Michael Crabtree and youngster Josh Morgan, Gore will benefit from that also. I'm just hoping that while Frank still has some good years ahead of him that they find a franchise QB for the future.IMO, I don't think Shaun Hill or Alex Smith figures in that picture.Not sure that Nate Davis is the answer either as he seems to be a project with some mechanical issues not to mention having a learning disability which may or may not hinder him. They have 2 first round picks next year and would like to see them get a franchise QB in the draft. Possibly Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy.

Frank Gore Projections