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Spotlight - TE Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

The Atlanta Falcons gave up a second round pick to the Chiefs for perennial Pro Bowl TE, Tony Gonzalez. The acquisition of Gonzalez adds another offensive threat to the Falcons that gives them marquis players at three different positions: Michael Turner at RB, Roddy White at WR and now Gonzalez at TE. QB Matt Ryan was impressive in his rookie season and now has more weapons to be even more effective. Atlanta is making a strong push for a Super Bowl berth and Gonzalez figures to play an important role.

Some questions surround the new change of scenery. What can we expect from him in 2009?

1. Can Gonzalez adapt to a new offensive system and produce similar, if not better numbers than he did in Kansas City?
2. Is age a factor? Gonzalez is 33 years old entering his 13th year in the league
3. How has OC Mike Mularkey utilized the TE position in seasons past?

In the post Michael Vick era, the Falcons have had 58 and 19 receptions from TEs in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The key stat here is only 19 receptions to TEs last year from the arm of Matt Ryan. Obviously, the Falcons will want to get Gonzalez involved in the offense, but they probably won't alter their run-oriented offensive game plan too much that featured 489 rushes from RBs last year - 2nd most in the league. In comparison, last year Gonzalez's former team had just 308 RB rushes.

Tony Gonzalez has had four 90+ reception 1,000+ yard seasons in his career. Below are the number of RB rushes for his team during the years he reached that milestone

2000 93 receptions, 1,203 yards - 347 RB rushes
2004 102 receptions, 1,258 yards - 450 RB rushes
2007 99 receptions, 1,172 yards - 358 RB rushes
2008 96 receptions, 1,058 yards - 308 RB rushes

2004 was the only year where Gonzalez had 1,000+ yards receiving with 90+ receptions and his team's rushing output was among the tops in the league - 5th to be exact. His team's rushing output was among the tops in the league - 5th to be exact. Generally speaking, when Gonzalez's team finishes among the top in RB rushes, he tends to not have one of his bigger seasons. If Atlanta maintains their run-oriented offensive tendencies, we may see only average numbers from Gonzalez.

What's an average season for Gonzalez?

Removing his four seasons of 1,000+ yards with 90+ receptions, Tony averaged 65 receptions for 781 yards, which is 12.0 yards per catch. Feel free to increase or decrease numbers based on your opinion of various factors mentioned, which includes learning a new offense, the number of rushing attempts, his age, too many weapons to go around, etc. It seems as if there are more reasons to think that his numbers will decrease compared to his last two years at Kansas City. However, he should still be a big red zone target and could very well reach 7-9 TDs in 2009 with Atlanta.

Positives

• Gonzalez has finished in the Top 3 nine of the last 10 years. He is a sure-fire Hall of Famer with outstanding hands and play-making skills that can be successful on any team
• He will not be a primary focus for defensive players with the likes of Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Michael Turner also drawing attention. If Atlanta fields a more balanced offensive approach, he could have another 90+ catches with over 1,000 yards receiving
• If Gonzalez can produce solid numbers with Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle at QB, he should stand to benefit having Matt Ryan throwing him the ball this year

Negatives

• Historically speaking, Gonzalez doesn't tend to have big years when his team is among the league leaders in rushing attempts; Atlanta finished 2nd in RB rushes last year
• After 12 years with the Kansas City Chiefs, he'll have to learn a whole new offense. OC Mularkey's offense has historically not featured the TE. He has only coached two TEs in his 14 years in the league that finished in the fantasy Top 20 -- Randy McMichael (11th) in 2006 with Miami and Mark Bruener (20th) in 1997 with Pittsburgh
• So far, Gonzalez has not shown any effects of getting up there in age, but only three TEs his age or older have had 100+ fantasy points in a season

Final Thoughts

The Falcons are hoping Tony Gonzalez will be a key piece to the offensive puzzle and help catapult them to a Super Bowl Championship. That very well may be the case, but there is reason to believe that his numbers will decrease compared to his output in the last two years. He is on a new team, learning a new offense, with a new QB with other weapons around him that he didn't necessarily have in his days in Kansas City. Regardless of how much his numbers may or may not decrease, he is still expected to be one of the better fantasy TEs this year. Just don't expect 90 catches and 1,000 yards.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Dr. Octopus:
Obviously Gonzalez is one of the best of all time at his position and has been a perennial top 5 fantasy TE, but I think there is some risk heading into this season based on his advancing age and adjusting to a new team. Don't get me wrong he still has to be projected as a top 5 TE because he's simply more talented than most TEs in the league even at 33, but I do see some downside based on where he will be drafted and therefore would not be heartbroken is I "missed out" on him come draft day.

A study of this board showed that only elite talents at the position have had fantasy starting caliber seasons past the age of 31 and obviously Gonzo is an elite talent, but sooner or later he will slow down. He goes to a good situation with a young talented QB and otherwise good supporting cast, but on the flipside he may not have to be the focal point of the offense like he was last year in KC. Like I said you have to project him as a top 5 TE, but one should be aware that there is some risk he will underperform his draft position.

Banger:
I'm not sure why but I don't have a real good feel for Gonzo this year. My opinion may change as I hear more from TC and see him in his new offense but I think he falters this year through no fault of his own. The offense wasn't a TE heavy offense at all and maybe that will change but KC was built around him. I still think he'll be productive but not the stud we've become accustomed to. I still think he'll be a very good NFL player and help the Falcons move the ball and make key catches but I don't think they'll rely on him to move the ball down the field like KC did.

gianmarco:
Something to keep in mind about TE's and having a WR "taking away targets"

Witten had TO (140 targets)
Owen Daniels had AJ (170 targets)
Winslow had Braylon Edwards (153 targets in 2007 and 138 in 2008)
D. Clark had Reggie Wayne (131 targets)
Cooley had Santana Moss (138 targets)
Tony G had Bowe last year (157 targets)

Roddy White had 137 and 148 targets the last 2 years. There is nothing to suggest having a top WR to take away targets is a bad thing for a TE. In fact, I just listed 5 of the top 8 TEs for 2008. Only Shiancoe, Carlson, and Gates didn't have a WR with 130+ targets on their team. Other than Gates, those 2 are newcomers to the list. Witten, Daniels, Clark, Cooley, and Gonzo are not.

Oh, and if you want to say that Turner is going to take targets away as well, almost every one of those had a strong running game too. And all of these RB's caught the ball considerably more than Turner with the exception of J. Lewis:

Witten had Barber & co. (238 carries)
Owen Daniels had Slaton (268 carries)
Winslow had J. Lewis, esp. in 2007 (279 in 2008 and 298 in 2007)
Cooley had Portis (342 carries)
Tony G has had LJ/Priest in the past
Gates had LT (292 carries and 300+ years before)

So, I don't think the presence of Roddy or Turner is going to be a problem for Gonzo at all. In fact, it seems to be quite rare to NOT have either a top WR and/or a top RB present and still be an elite TE.

Jason Wood - Senior Writer, FBG Staff:
I think the important thing to remember is that Atlanta only threw the ball 434 times last year (29th in the NFL). While you can argue they're not going to start throwing 600 times a season, I think we have to consider just what a promising rookie season Matt Ryan had and what that means for his workload in 2009 and beyond. I firmly believe the Falcons will comfortably throw 500+ times this year and be more balanced, and to that end there should be plenty of targets for Gonzo IMHO.

While he's a veteran, he's also a veteran coming off another elite season. There's no sign of Tony slowing yet, so I wouldn't arbitrarily use his age against him right now. Another point to think through, Gonzo has flourished in so many different situations. He's been great on good teams, bad teams, horrible teams. He's been great with a passing game (remember all those Trent Green 4,000 yard seasons?) and without legit quarterbacking. He's played in different offensive schemes, different playbooks, and different mixes in the huddle.

It's never a bad idea to discount a player when they are making a dramatic change, but I think anyone not looking at Gonzo as a Top 3-4 TE this year is over thinking things.

CalBear:
Every year, people talk about how they'll pick up a late-round TE who'll put up numbers like Gonzo's, and so far, 90% of them have been wrong every year. The best you could have done in the late rounds in 2008 was Shiancoe, who scored 4 points per game less than Gonzo, and the other 10 or 12 late-round TEs didn't even come close to that. There have been occasional wins in the late rounds, but Gonzo's reliability as a top producer has been better than any other player at any other position in the past 10 years; only Peyton Manning comes close in terms of reliably putting up top performances. Gonzo has averaged 72 VBD points in the past 10 years; there's no one in the third round who comes anywhere close to that. He's coming off a 83 VBD point season, one of the best of his career. There's a lot to like.

The bad news is that he's going into a new situation, which increases his risk significantly. The talent is unquestioned; the question is how he will be used and what opportunities he'll have. The good news is that his offensive coordinator is Mike Mularkey, who played TE for the Vikings and Steelers and was TE coach or offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay (Jackie Harris 62/751/1), Pittsburgh (Mark Breuner 17/192/3), and Miami (Randy McMichael 62/640/3). None of Mularkey's TEs have been top-level producers, but then, none of his TEs have been top-level TEs. I think we can use Harris/McMichael's numbers as a baseline for Gonzo's coming into this situation, and he should be able to surpass them.

Because he needs to develop rapport and familiarity with a new team, I'm going to take his targets and receptions down. But he'll be playing in a much better offense, so I'm going to bump his yards per reception and TDs per reception. He's averaged 89/1043/11.7 ypr/6.7 TD in the past 3 years.

Tony Gonzalez Projections