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Spotlight - WR Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts

Posted on 8/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Anthony Gonzalez enters his third year in the league and could be the biggest benefactor to Marvin Harrison leaving the Colts. When Indianapolis burned a first round pick on Gonzalez, many people felt he would be the future heir to Harrison. Gonzalez hopes to continue in the footsteps of some other notable Ohio State alumni including Santonio Holmes, David Boston, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, and Cris Carter and take his game to another level.

Peyton Manning should continue to put up the same lofty numbers he has for years, so there should be a fair amount of targets, yardage, and fantasy production up for grabs. Manning has averaged 4,148 passing yards and 30 passing TD a season over his career, and Gonzalez has now been promoted to unquestioned WR2 opposite Reggie Wayne. With Harrison no longer in the mix and no other wide receiver other than Gonzalez with much game day experience, Gonzalez is in about as good position to have a breakout season as any receiver in the league.

Looking at the numbers, Gonzalez fared better with Harrison out of the lineup (as would be expected):

Historically, the Colts' WR2 has put up a wide range of numbers fantasy wise. Wayne has been outstanding, but the other options, however, were nowhere near as successful.

At 6'0", Gonzalez is the same height as Wayne and Harrison. In the Manning era, the Colts have predominantly stuck with mid sized receivers and have not opted for the tall and chiseled types like some other teams have. (Gonzalez and Wayne both weigh 195 lbs with Harrison in the 180s). Gonzalez has yet to build the chemistry that Manning has had with Harrison and to a lesser extent Wayne. Several times a year those two receivers have been able to improvise, cutting off routes on the fly to make big plays out of what easily could have been a sack or a throwaway for no gain.

If Gonzalez can get that sixth sense going with Manning, he could see a dramatic increase in his targets and his fantasy production. That hasn't happened yet, and Manning may need to see more production to completely trust Gonzalez to keep targeting him. Over his first two seasons, Gonzalez saw back-to-back games with at least five targets only once each season. By comparison, Harrison in his prime averaged almost 10 targets per game and Wayne over the past three years averaged a shade under nine targets per game.

Another factor to consider is the Colts pass-to-run ratio. In the eight seasons leading up to last year, the Colts passed 55% of the time. Last season, the team was not very effective running the ball and saw that number increase to 61%. Since the 2001 season, Indianapolis averaged 442 rushing attempts but they only had 370 last year. A market correction may be in order.

The Colts drafted Connecticut Husky Donald Brown to help combat the disappointing rushing attack. With Tony Dungy stepping down as head coach, one of the first priorities of the new regime likely will be to right the ship in the ground game. That could trim a few targets for Gonzalez and the rest of the Colts receiving corps, as an effective running attack from Brown and former first round pick Joseph Addai would go a long way in the Colts' pursuit of a seventh consecutive 12-win season.

To better evaluate how Gonzalez has fared in the early stages of his career, here are the two-year totals for Gonzalez, Harrison, and Wayne as a basis of comparison:

Harrison: 137 receptions, 1,702 receiving yards, 14 receiving TD
Gonzalez: 94 receptions, 1,240 receiving yards, 7 receiving TD
Wayne: 76 receptions, 1,061 receiving yards, 4 receiving TD

Positives

• With Marvin Harrison no longer in the picture, Gonzalez will be on the field a lot more and should see an up tick in targets and production
• Entering his third season, he's a fantasy breakout candidate on a team that has averaged more passing yards than all but four teams produced in 2008 and averaged more passing touchdowns than all but three teams had last year
• More experience + More opportunities + Great offense usually = Big Numbers

Negatives

• Gonzalez has been solid but not spectacular in his first two seasons. He will need to continue to improve to be a fantasy force
• TE Dallas Clark emerged as a bigger receiving threat than Gonzalez last year, and Clark may be the one to end up as the number two target in the passing game
• Coaching changes sometimes result in changes in offensive philosophy. The Colts look to rebound running the football and could see more rushing TD at the expense of passing TD

Final Thoughts

Without Harrison on the team, it would be somewhat shocking if Gonzalez saw his numbers dip given the inexperience of the other WR options. He should take the next step this year from fantasy WR4 to something bigger and bolder. It's how much a leap forward that is the big question. If his fantasy numbers only improved as much as they did from year one to year two, he would have rank 37th if the WR rankings mirrored last year's.

However, he should perform better than that. Wayne ranked 20th in his third season in the league, and Gonzalez should be in line for a similar stat line (68-832-7).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Rookieblitz:
I believe that Gonzalez will be on many championship teams in 2009.

Currently he has an ADP of WR25, and the opportunity is there with Harrison gone, a soft schedule, and Peyton Manning as his quarterback. A top 15 finish is not out of the question.

rzrback77:
There is good news and bad news concerning Anthony Gonzalez and his prospects for 09. The bad news is that he has finished as the 61st and 45th ranked WR in his first two seasons, even while playing for the high flying Colts. Even finishing as low as he has previously, he has a current ADP of WR25 and 67 overall. Now for the good news, Marvin Harrison was cut. The Colts did not throw up to par for the first half of 08, so their passing game should improve this year. Gonzalez has averaged a 72% catch percentage and seemed to be a key figure on third downs a year ago. His QB Peyton Manning is about as solid as they come.

Anthony Gonzalez has been very reliable and is ready for this opportunity. He will be targeted much more often and if he can manage even close to his historic catch percentage, he should be able to perform at or above his current ADP.

Biabreakable:
1. AG is a lot better player than I think people give him credit for. He was better than Ginn in tOSU but never got the credit for it. Same thing seems to be lingering now in his pro career.
2. From day 1 AG was sitting next to Manning.. asking him questions.. doing whatever he could to learn what Manning wants him to do.. a player with similar work ethic. charecter and outlook towards the game as Manning. They seemed like peas in a pod from day 1.
3. Harrison and Wayne did not reach thier potential in the Colts offense until thier 4th season. Showing that it takes time before these guys get Mannings confidence and learn the offense well enough to explode. AG is ahead of both of thier learning curves right now.
4. AG is a complete WR and can play any WR position and run all the routes.

He will be a WR2 in FF with WR1 upside if things go his way. He can be drafted as a WR3 or 4. Hard to argue with that bargain.

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