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Spotlight - TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Antonio Gates is coming off the worst season since his rookie year.

And yet he finished as the 4th best fantasy tight end.

What was a subpar season for Gates would be most tight ends career year.

• 60 receptions
• 704 yards
• 11.7 yards per reception
• 8 TDs
• 118 fantasy points

Only nine NFL tight ends have at least one season with more than 118 fantasy points over the last six years: Alge Crumpler (1), Chris Cooley (2), Dallas Clark (2), Jason Witten (3), Jeremy Shockey (1), Kellen Winslow (1), Shannon Sharpe (1), Todd Heap (1), and Tony Gonzalez (5).

In the prior four seasons, Gates has averaged:

• 79 receptions
• 993 yards
• 12.6 yards per reception
• 10 TDs

So the question fantasy owners need to ask is, why did Gates' play 'fall off' last year and how realistic is it to expect a return to his 2004-2007 levels?

As my man Willie Shakespeare said, To Toe or not to Toe, that is the question...

Gates battled a number of seemingly minor injuries over the last two seasons, including sore ankle and hip pain. But what really set him back, and turned him into the 4th best fantasy TE rather than THE best was his toe. Gates hurt his toe in the 2008 preseason and it hampered him throughout camp. By his own admission, he was a shell of his usual self for the first month of the regular season. "My whole life, I'd never experienced something of that magnitude, where I couldn't jump, couldn't run the way I wanted to," Gates said. "The first quarter of (last) season ---- that was my camp soreness."

This preseason it's been a completely different story. The Gates of old is back. He's using his basketball skills to their fullest. He can cut again. He can leap again. He can out muscle defensive backs again. In other words, he's back to being a star.

In spite of his own struggles a season ago, Philip Rivers elevated his game to MVP levels. Rivers is coming off a 4,009-yard, 34 TD season where Rivers completed 65% of his passes. He's clearly moved himself into the upper echelon of passers, which bodes well for Gates' outlook now that he's healthy. If Gates could finish as the #1 fantasy TE for three straight seasons when Rivers was still learning his craft, imagine what kind of numbers he could put together now that they're both healthy and on the same page?

Positives

• Gates is the most athletic TE in the game, and by all accounts he's got his explosiveness and leaping ability back
• Philip Rivers is an accurate, prolific QB who has a great rapport with Gates Tony Gonzalez has 39 scores and Dallas Clark has 31 scores, they're the only two within shouting distance of him

Negatives

• You're going to have to pay a high price for Gates this year (as with all years), which is a strategy many fantasy owners feel uncomfortable with
• The TE position is deeper than it was a few years ago, effectively diminishing the relative value of Gates' monster numbers
• Vincent Jackson emerged a season ago, which may facilitate a more balanced passing attack than in the years Gates was the #1 fantasy TE

Final Thoughts

Antonio Gates finished TE4 last year in what most consider an injury-plagued disappointment. If only every fantasy player could have their worst year and still be a Top 5 player. Now that he's healthy and has his explosiveness back, it's very hard to argue against drafting any TE other than Jason Witten ahead of him. If your league mates have short memories and think we've seen the last of Gates' premier seasons, don't hesitate to draft him; he'll probably have as much value as most starting caliber fantasy receivers and will give you a huge advantage even in today's TE-rich environment.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

SSOG:
Antonio Gates' target totals over the last 3 years- 119, 117, 92. One of these things is not like the other, one of these things doesn't belong. With Tomlinson clearly on the down slope of his career, San Diego is going to become more and more of a passing offense, and Gates remains the #1 receiving option on the team.

rzrback77:
Antonio Gates is a steady performer at TE. He has finished 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the five previous seasons. His TDs have been very consistent as well, but sliding down just a tad. He has had 13, 10, 9, 9, and 8. Last year, his targets really dropped (by 25) from 07 and they too have been slipping downward off a high of 140 in 2005. I see him continuing to be a key part of the Charger passing attack, but two things concern me about his 09 projection. I think that the Chargers defense will improve dramatically and their offensive attack could shift back to more rushing the ball. This will be especially true if LT has recovered from his injuries of a year ago. More running attempts combined with better WR options than in the past should keep Gates with 100 to 110 targets as opposed to the 140 he got back in 08. He will continue to be a focus at the goal line though. I see him performing near to the expectations of his ADP which is TE2 and 50 overall.

Antonio Gates Projections