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Spotlight - QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 7/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

David Garrard is the kind of player that can drive fantasy owners insane. After displacing Byron Leftwich in Jacksonville, it's fair to say that expectations weren't high initially, but Garrard produced respectable numbers. In 2005-2006, as a part-time starter, Garrard went 9-6 and produced the following metrics:

*** 15 starts
*** 243 completions
*** 409 attempts
*** 59.4% completion rate
*** 2,852 yards
*** 6.97 yards per attempt
*** 14 TD passes
*** 10 Ints
*** 78 rushes
*** 422 yards rushing
*** 3 rushing TDs

On a per game basis, that equates to 16.59 fantasy points; which was the 12th best fantasy output per game over that span.

In other words, even as a wet-behind-the-ears, unpolished starter, Garrard was already a rock solid fantasy QB2 and marginal spot starter in deeper leagues.

Then came the 2007 season, when Garrard was the undisputed starter. Unlike his prior two seasons, Garrard was now clearly on the fantasy radar, but few thought he would be prolific enough to warrant serious fantasy consideration outside of a backup role. Yet when push came to shove, Garrard's numbers looked eerily similar to his 2005-2006 part-time splits:

*** 12 games
*** 208 completions
*** 325 attempts
*** 64.0% completion rate
*** 2,509 yards
*** 7.72 yards per attempt
*** 18 TDs
*** 3 Ints
*** 50 rushes
*** 182 yards
*** 1 rushing TD

From a fantasy perspective, Garrard ranked 11th in points per game, essentially where he ranked the prior two seasons. Once again he was a fringe starter, excellent QB2 that could've been had on the cheap.

But the story doesn't stop with his fantasy output, because underlying those stats were indicators that Garrard had grown substantially as a passer.

*** His completion rate jumped almost 5%
*** His YPA jumped almost a yard
*** His INT rate plummeted

That had fantasy owners thinking, IF ONLY GARRARD WAS GIVEN MORE OPPORTUNITIES.

Enter 2008.

By now the Jaguar (cat) was out of the proverbial bag.

Garrard was a hot fantasy commodity for the first time in his career. Three years of solid, albeit unspectacular production had many fantasy owners thinking Garrard would be a Top 10 fantasy QB in 2008. The coaching staff was saying all the right things, and management had signed Jerry Porter to provide another weapon in the receiving corps. Matt Jones and Reggie Williams need only show a bit more growth and there was no reason Garrard wasn't in line for his first 3,000-yard, 20-22 TD season, right?

OOPS.

That's why we play the game.

If you're an NFL fan you know that things didn't go according to plan in Jacksonville last year. None of the WRs were completely effective, and far more importantly the entire offensive line was decimated. Four of the team's projected starters were lost and Garrard was playing behind a patchwork blocking unit all season long. The result?

*** He was sacked a career-high 42 times
*** He only threw 15 TDs in 16 games
*** He threw 10 more INTs than in 2007
*** His TD% was cut in half
*** The team lost 11 games

So Garrard was a complete fantasy washout, right? THINK AGAIN. In spite of an obviously regression in his passing numbers, Garrard ended the season as the 14th best fantasy QB (on a per game basis).

How is that possible? One, Garrard threw more, ending the season with 3,620 yards. Two, he ran for 322 yards and 2 scores. Roll all that up, and you once again have a decent fantasy QB2 but someone not quite good enough to start for a contending team.

So now what should we expect in 2009?

Change is afoot in Jacksonville.

Wide Receiver -- Say goodbye to Jerry Porter, Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. Say hello to Torry "Perennial Pro Bowl" Holt, and a trio of promising rookies: Jarrett Dillard, Mike Thomas and Tiquan Underwood. Holt, even at this age, is the best receiver Garrard has ever thrown to and will allow the younger receivers to fit into more appropriate roles. Either Troy Williamson or 3rd year Mike Walker will start alongside Holt, and the youngsters will fill in from there.

Tight End -- Marcedes Lewis remains positioned to start, but don't sleep on unheralded rookie Zach Miller. Miller is a converted QB who our draft pundits, Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey, believe can develop quickly into an impact H-back in the right system.

Offensive Line -- In addition to getting Brad Meester, Maurice Williams and Vince Manuwai back healthy, the Jaguars added not one, not two, but THREE impact tackles this offseason. At left tackle, the Jags signed Tra Thomas away from the Eagles, where he anchored one of the NFC's best offensive lines this decade. And in April the Jags followed that by drafting Eugene Monroe in the 1st round and Eben Britton in the 2nd round. Combined, these three should help solidify what again looks like a plus offensive line.

Here's the best part, fantasy owners are selling Garrard short, just as they had in 2005-2007.

According to our latest ADP data, Garrard is being drafted 17th among QBs. This for a guy, who in his worst year, was QB14. Now he has a Hall of Fame caliber wideout, a passel of promising younger receivers, and a completely revamped offensive line. To say nothing of the continued presence of Maurice Jones-Drew, who not only keeps defenses honest but is an above average receiver, too.

Positives

• Garrard has consistently delivered Top 10-12 fantasy production in spite of an uninspiring supporting cast
• The offensive line should be demonstrably better this season, as will be the receiving corps provided Torry Holt can remain effective
• Garrard's rushing numbers don't get a lot of attention, but help cushion him as compared to some of the other potential fantasy backups

Negatives

• Torry Holt is coming off a forgettable season and the Jags desperately need him to be a WR1 or they're right back to square one
• While the WR corps is bolstered, the TE position remains a question mark, and the RB position lost key depth with the departure of Fred Taylor
• While his floor is higher than many QBs, so too is his ceiling unless the Jaguars dramatically reshape their offensive approach

Final Thoughts

At QB17, David Garrard shines as one of the most attractive fantasy backups to target. There are certainly question marks in Jacksonville this year, and the coaching staff needs a strong season in order to stay employed. But at Garrard's ADP, and given his consistency throughout the last four seasons, it's hard to see how he won't earn his draft slot. The question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is how high Garrard could finish and, therefore, how many rounds early are you willing to reach for him? In our estimation, last year was a near "worst case scenario" and so looking at Garrard as QB10-12 makes the most sense. If the offensive line gels quickly (and stays healthy) and Torry Holt and Mike Walker live up to their billing, Garrard could be in line for his first Top 10 finish. How many other QBs can you say that about who should be available in 9th or 10th rounds of your draft?

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
David Garrard had a terrible year in 08 as the Jaguar offensive line sufferred injury and disappointment upon injury. If you read the board m uch this off-season, there are not many less talented QBs out there in the NFL. Don't even get started on the WR talent. Since Jimmy Smith retired (failed drug tests) in 05, the Jaguar WRs have been a vast wasteland.

Matt Jones did all right last year and Reggie Williams had some success the year before, but nobody is putting either of them even as a solid WR 2 and they have been the best that the Jaguars have had to offer. They added Torry Holt in the off-season and even gimpy and old, he will likely be the best they have had since 05. Mike Walker has been the tease of all teases for a few years, but maybe he turns a corner in 09. They also drafted two talented rookies. Many want to discount rookie WRs, but recent success by Boldin in 03, Michael Clayton in 04, Colston in 06, and Royal, Avery, and Jackson last year seem to offer hope for the Jaguar rookies.

Back to Garrard, he has been the starter for the past two years and has accomplished the following in individual games:

1) Less than 200 yds and 1 TD or less - 5 times in 08 and 3 times in 07
2) More than 300 yds or multiple TDs - 4 times in 08 and 7 times in 07

In his two years as a starter, he ranked overall QB11 in 07 QB16 in 08. With all the poor line play last season, he still ranked QB11. Yet according to FBG, his current ADP is QB20. Personally, I like the offensive line's chance to improve in 09. I like the WRs better this year than last and without Fred Taylor, the running game may not be as strong as it has been. Garrard looks to be a bargain price that can provide a stable situation for a late round pick.

Dr. Octopus:
David Garrard is the type of fantasy backup QB that will not hurt you when your starter is on a bye but likely doesn't have the upside to allow you to use him as trade bait for a team that needs a QB during the season. Jacksonville remains a team committed to running the ball and while some will see their WR corps as upgraded, an aging Tory Holt, and unproven players such as Mike Walker and a couple of rookies doesn't guarantee success. Garrard has some talent but he's just another QB in the long line who offer solid but unspectacular play.

travdogg:
I think Garrard will be a steal this year. The weapons should be better this year with Holt and a hopefully healthy Walker, plus MJD on the field more often. The O-line was majorly upgraded with Thomas, Britton and Monroe (who was the draft's top O-lineman in my opinion) which should help the offense all around.

gonzobill5:
Last year, he was constantly under pressure. With the work they did in the draft and signing Tra Thomas, I'm counting on an improved OL, but not necessarily an improved WR corps. The running game will remain effective.

It's too easy to get caught saying 08 is his floor - keep in mind that 535 pass attempts is high for JAX and that Garrard has only had more than 2 passing TDs in a game twice. That indicates to me that his ceiling isn't all that high either.

David Garrard Projections