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Spotlight - RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Posted on 8/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Matt Forte was a revelation last year. In what turned out to be a fantastic rookie RB class, Forte was a fantasy goldmine as a mid round pick who delivered Top 5 production. Forte finished as the 4th best fantasy RB, and was even better in points-per-reception leagues by virtue of his 63 receptions. Take a look at his impressive 2008 totals:

• 316 rushes
• 1,238 rushing yards
• 8 rushing TDs
• 63 receptions
• 477 yards receiving
• 4 TDs
• 4th ranked fantasy RB

Forte is only the 7th rookie RB in modern history to catch more than 60 receptions:

That list is a decidedly mixed bag in terms of future fantasy stardom, but it also excludes the fact that Forte was a highly productive runner, as well. So let's broaden our search and look at rookie RBs who had at least 1,700 yards from scrimmage (Forte had 1,715) and 12+ TDs.

Now THAT is an impressive list. In fact, it's littered with some of the NFL's all-time great runners. Now that doesn't prove Forte is destined for another elite fantasy season in 2009, but it DOES lend credence to notion Forte is a special player.

This year a lot is changed in Chicago; and that's why I'm hesitant to count on Forte reproducing his Top 5 numbers of a year ago.

Jay Cutler changes everything

By now you've been fully deluged with the Jay Cutler to Chicago talk. You don't need to hear that he's an elite QB who gives the Bears their best signal caller in decades. But what you DO need to think about is how Cutler's situation makes things different for Matt Forte.

Cutler isn't going to check down as much as Kyle Orton -- Jay Cutler is a strong-armed quarterback who loves to throw downfield. A lot of people may assume that because Forte caught 63 passes last year, the improved quarterbacking will assure a repeat. But that's not likely. Remember, check downs to the RB are usually an option in most pass progressions, but they're rarely the designed play. Orton isn't an aggressive passer and too often checked down to Forte. Cutler won't do it as much; just as he didn't in Denver. Forte will still catch plenty of passes, but don't expect Cutler to throw to him as often.

Kevin Jones is healthy, which means fewer carries for Forte -- Matt Forte was a workhorse last year but he wasn't all that effective on a per carry basis (3.9 yards per rush). Furthermore, he wore down as the season progressed, averaging a horrendous 3.3 yards per rush over the final month. Yet, the Bears were so bereft of RB talent; Forte logged 73% of the team's carries. Forte is too talented and too valuable to overuse like that again; and the Bears coaches have consistently maintained they plan on giving Kevin Jones more touches. Jones is in Year 2 of his post-ACL injury recovery and has looked great in camp.

Positives

• Matt Forte had more than 1700 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TDs, and almost every rookie RB to achieve those marks has been a stellar pro for years to come
• Jay Cutler gives the Bears an added dynamic, ensuring defenses won't key on Forte as much and also providing the Bears with more sustained drives and red zone opportunities
• A healthy Kevin Jones and a improved offensive line should allow Forte to better persevere into the late season, unlike last year when his play fell off in December

Negatives

• Forte only averaged 3.9 yards per rush and that fell to 3.3 in December
• Jay Cutler isn't going to check down for Forte as often as Kyle Orton did, which means those expecting Forte to catch 60+ catches again are likely to be disappointed
• The Bears defense forced the team into a shoot-out mood last year and it's unclear whether this year's defense will be any better. If not, there will be games when the Bears have to abandon the run

Final Thoughts

Matt Forte was the 4th best fantasy runner as a rookie, and his future couldn't be brighter. The addition of Jay Cutler changes the dynamics of the team, and some aspects will work against Forte's fantasy prospects, while far more should enhance them. I wouldn't draft Forte ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew or Adrian Peterson, and think there are reasons why Forte might fall a bit short of last year's numbers. But he appears to be one of the less risky options in the early 1st round, particularly in PPR leagues. If he's there in the mid 1st, it's hard to argue against it.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
The key formula for fantasy success involves talent and opportunity. In 08, Matt Forte was the poster boy for opportunity and he combined that with solid receiving success. Otherwise, he was really ordinary, averaging a meager 3.9 ypc. There are theories that Cutler is so much better than Orton that he alone will raise the overall Bear offense. I am not so sure that Cutler will be much better than Orton as he is learning a new team and his WRs appear to be the same as Orton had last year.

Personally I think that the Bears offense will disappoint from the expectations based on Cutler's arm. I also am concerned about the number of carries that Forte had last year resulting in tired legs earlier in the season if he maintains that same pace. Lastly, he has that current ADP of RB 4 and 4th overall. He must maintain his touches or increase his production to produce equal to the expectations of RB4. That is the decision point for me and I will likely pass.

Black Jacks:
I'm just not that big on Forte this year. I like his situation, love his line, lack of depth at rb and oppurtunity to touch the ball alot.

I just see a sophmore slump this year for Forte and I see Cutler getting alot more int's than the Bear's qb spot did last year. I also see Cutler passing for more td's and longer completitions that will take up some of the "moving th chains" touches that Forte got last year.

I still think Forte will be descent

sho nuff:
IMO...the receptions will go down as Cutler will not rely on the dump off quite as much.

Matt Forte Projections