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Spotlight - QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Joe Flacco became the first rookie quarterback to win two playoff games in his first season, falling just short of a trip to Super Bowl XLIII. Even with the stellar first year, he was overshadowed by fellow firs year QB Matt Ryan in Atlanta. Flacco had a great NFL debut for certain, but his fantasy numbers were not reflective of that by any means. So why was that, and should we expect better or worse in 2009?

John Harbaugh was also a rookie as Baltimore's head coach last year, and he relied on the classic Raven recipe for success -- defense and the ground game. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron ran the ball over 500 times with their running backs and kept Flacco's attempts down all season long. Flacco only had three games with 30 or more attempts in the regular season, and all three of those games were losses, including two lopsided blowouts against the Colts and the Giants. Flacco was managed much like Ben Roethlisberger in his first season as the offense was kept to simple one- and two-read passing plays, affording Flacco and the Ravens few plays which called for the rookie signal caller to make tough throws or difficult defensive reads. Even with Flacco's limitations in his first year, he was able to show off his arm strength and accuracy about once or twice a contest. Now and then keen observers would see the skill that had caught the eye of the Baltimore organization and prompted them to trade up in Round 1 of the 2008 NFL Draft to get Flacco.

Let's fast forward to this season. Expectations for 2009 range all over the place for Flacco's numbers. Some expect Flacco to match his totals from last season, while others are expecting improvements based on the typical QB growth curve from a rookie to a sophomore campaign. Those thinking that Flacco would do worse this year are declining, mostly due to Derrick Mason's change of heart and un-retiring for 2009. With Mason and Clayton back as the top duo at wideout for the Ravens, Flacco has two solid targets in which to throw to for this coming year. Adding to Flacco's targets are Ray Rice, arguably the best receiving running back for Baltimore, and two TE options. Todd Heap looks to bounce back after yet another injury plagued season, while free agent signee L.J. Smith comes over from Philadelphia to give Flacco an additional big target.

Positives

• The classic learning curve for an NFL quarterback shows the most growth from Year 1 to Year 2, so Flacco is more likely to improve the most in 2009 from 2008
• Derrick Mason's return from flirting with retirement is huge -- now Mason and Mark Clayton represent a solid 1-2 punch at starting WR for Baltimore
• The Ravens added LJ Smith at tight end to help boost the production at the position. Todd Heap is reportedly healthy once again, but if he falters another option exists for Baltimore right behind him
• Flacco displayed abilities as both a scrambler and also as a receiver, rushing 52 times for 181 yards and two scores in the regular season (and a third in the postseason) in 2008
• The three-headed ground attack for Baltimore with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain will keep defenses honest, opening up the secondary for Flacco
• The highly rated Baltimore defense suffered a few losses in personnel, on and off the field. Rex Ryan left to head coach the New York Jets, taking away Bart Scott. If the Ravens have to score more points to keep up in 2009, Flacco will likely attempt more passes which should lead to bigger numbers

Negatives

• Baltimore is a run the ball and play defense kind of team, pushing the passing attack way down the pecking order
• Even with the return of Derrick Mason, the Ravens lack explosiveness from their wideouts. Mark Clayton is not consistent and Demetrius Williams has yet to prove that he can stay healthy
• Flacco was not challenged often to make the difficult throw last year, as Baltimore kept things as simple as possible to minimize Flacco's mistakes. Until Flacco shows that he can beat NFL defenses consistently, it will be difficult to rely on him for fantasy production

Final Thoughts

Joe Flacco is positioned well within the Baltimore Raven organization. He is the unquestioned leader in the huddle and has no challenger on the depth chart for playing time. His command of the passing attack has not been proven to be at the same level, however, which has many questioning his ability to put up big numbers when the Ravens need to either come from behind or compete against a high-powered NFL offense. There will be occasions when Baltimore will face situations that will call for a big play from Flacco, and it is unclear whether he can deliver. Adding to this dilemma for passing performance was Derrick Mason's recent (and brief) retirement, leaving the Ravens staring at a barren list of wide receiver options after Mark Clayton. Baltimore's list of targets for 2009 does contain both Mason and Clayton, but they will also need upticks at both running back and tight end in the reception column. Free agent acquisition L.J. Smith and likely starter Ray Rice must present themselves as viable targets for Flacco, especially in the red zone. Lastly, Baltimore suffered the losses of former defensive coordinator Rex Ryan and linebacker Bart Scott, both of which left for the New York Jets. If the Ravens get into more contests where they need 21 or more points on the scoreboard to compete, Flacco will be asked to throw more often. That should be good news for Flacco and his fantasy owners.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

5-ish Finkle:
Unless your league awards points for handing off, I don't see any reason to consider him as anything other than a pretty "meh" 2nd QB. His stats will probably be eerily similar to last season's, with perhaps a small uptick in TD passes and INTs:

Let's say around 3,050-3,100 yards, 17 TDs (probably with a couple from downtown, if you get extra points for that, but good luck predicting them) with 15 picks. I don't see him pulling it down for 50 rush attempt again, so I expect his rushing yards/TDs will be negligible.

This is a team that is almost completely predicated on the run, and I don't see that changing a lot given their current options at WR and the multiple options they have at RB. Joe's schedule isn't exactly terrible outside of a few games, neither is it great, but it has a couple really rough patches. Chicago/Pittsburgh weeks 15 and 16 are particularly a drag if you wind up needing him late in the year.

Coach Pantusso:
There is no reason not to expect more of the same next season as far as the play-calling is concerned. Expect BAL to run the ball 55% of the time, limiting Flacco's pass attempts to hover around 450 for 2009. Coupled with an anticipated YPA <7 and no real downfield threats, it looks like more of the same (numbers wise for Flacco). Even if he develops more this offseason, it is offset by the loss of their best WR.

rzrback77:
Joe Flacco was one of the most successful rookie QBs in the NFL in quite a while. Unfortunately for him, he fell a little below the performance standard of Matt Ryan. At his current ADP of QB21 and 136, you could do worse than selecting a QB1 that has a good home and away schedule sync with Flacco.

Flacco's steady possession receiver recently announced his retirement, so if you have any summer drafts before camp opens, his ADP should be lower than current, but either Mason will return or the Ravens will add somebody so that they will have a few weapons for the young QB that should increase his confidence and productivity over his first campaign.

Joe Flacco Projections