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Spotlight - WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

One of the fascinating and maddening aspects of fantasy football is the way we keep score. We reward ourselves for the achievements of individual players, when in fact the performance of said players is HIGHLY contingent on what their real-world teammates and coaches do. To that end, no player is ever a can't-miss prospect in the truest sense of the word.

But as far as wide receivers go, Larry Fitzgerald is the closest thing to 'can't miss' as we'll find in 2009.

He was the best fantasy receiver on the planet last year.

• 96 receptions (his third 90+ season)
• 1,431 yards (his third 1,400-yard season)
• 14.9 yards per reception (a career-best)
• 12 TDs (league-leading, and a career-best)

But those numbers alone don't do him justice. Fitzgerald turned 25 years old last season and his numbers through the age of 25 are among the best in NFL history:

• 426 receptions (#1 all-time through the age of 25)
• 5,975 yards (#2 all-time through 25)
• 46 TDs (#2 all-time through 25)

But what if Kurt Warner gets hurt?
Let's be honest. Not many WRs will go unscathed if their starting QB gets hurt. Even Randy Moss took a big step back last year playing with Matt Cassel. So if the 38-year old All Pro got hurt, yes, it would probably impede Fitzgerald's numbers. But I wouldn't worry too much. Fitzgerald enjoyed a 1,400-yard season in 2005 with Josh McCown taking almost half the snaps.

But Todd Haley is gone, won't that hurt the Cards?
Todd Haley got a well deserved shot at head coaching, and I don't want to undermine his contribution to the Cardinals. But remember, Fitzgerald was an established star before Ken Whisenhunt's staff took over. And new OC Russ Grimm is a trusted offensive mind in his own right.

But aren't the Cardinals going to run the ball more this year?
The Cardinals certainly plan on running the ball more this season, and have added Chris Beanie Wells to solve the moribund ground attack. But more runs don't necessarily equate to fewer passes. A successful ground game should mean sustained drives and more red zone chances, which means Fitzgerald could smash through his previous career high of 12 TDs. Also, when a team throws the ball 600+ times, any reduction in those targets aren't going to come from their best receiver, but more likely the ancillary contributors. I would be shocked if the Cardinals have three 1,000-yard receivers again in 2009, but that most likely means Steve Breaston comes back to Earth, not Fitz (or Boldin).

But Larry Fitzgerald is going to cost me a 1st round pick, and WRs aren't worth a 1st round pick, right?
I would hope that by now if you're reading a Player Spotlight on our site you are also savvy enough to have gotten past the old "RB/RB/RB" mentality that fantasy owners myopically held to for ages. Using our VBD values (which compare the relative value of each position against one another), Fitzgerald was the 5th most valuable fantasy player at any position last year. In the era of running back committees and spread passing attacks, it's foolish to ignore the WR position in the first three or four rounds. You're handing your league title over to those with open minds.

OK, are you still not convinced? Then let's talk fantasy schedules. How often do you happily ride an early round fantasy stud all season, only to see them lay an egg in your fantasy playoffs? Well, while it's impossible to predict game-to-game performances, a glance at the Cardinals schedule in Weeks 15 and 16 should be the final push any of you Fitzgerald naysayers require:

• Week 15 @Detroit
• Week 16 vs. St. Louis

Needless to say, they project as two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Even if you assume they improve under new coaching regimes, you still have to assume they'll be below average which means Fitzgerald should be positioned to put up monster numbers when they matter most. And let's also not forget that both of those games will be indoors.

Positives

• Only Randy Moss had better numbers through the age of 25
• Fitzgerald is the rare combination of elite size, route running, football intelligence, body control and strength; he has no weaknesses
• The team returns all the key components that led to his monster success each of the last two seasons

Negatives

• Like most great receivers, Fitzgerald is at the mercy of his starting QB staying healthy
• OC Todd Haley has left for Kansas City, and the team must adjust to a new play-caller
• The Cardinals want to run the ball more

Final Thoughts

Larry Fitzgerald is a consensus top receiver, the only question fantasy owners need to concern themselves with is whether he's worth a 1st round pick. His current ADP (6th overall) means you need to choose him over a litany of talented franchise runners. While that may seem odd to some old school fantasy owners, the truth is taking an elite, can't miss wide receiver has been a smart decision in the 2nd half of the first round for many seasons. The ever-increasing passing skew and the evolution of more committee running attacks makes locking down the #1 player at any position a good idea. Fitzgerald is in his prime and should be a fantasy star in 2009 and many years to come.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
Yup. Every season where he wasn't a rookie or hurt he's been a monster. Best wide receiver in the NFL. Best wide receiver in Fantasy Football. 100 catches 1400 yards 10 touchdowns. Just awesome.

AllVolUT:
I'll go against the grain here. As much as I love Fitzgerald and believe he is the best receiver in the league, I don't love him in fantasy football this year. And to be honest, I don't have a real concrete reason as to why.

-Haley gone
-I don't think Warner will last another 16 games.
-Superbowl losers - the recent evidence is too overwhelming for me to look the other way.

Because of his awesome 2008 season and amazing playoff run, he is going off the board as the number 1 receiver. IMO, his potential for decreased numbers doesn't have much to do with his skill but more so his supporting cast. Also, Beanie Wells plays in as a wildcard - I'm sure Whisenhunt would love to be able to run the ball more, so we'll see how that plays out.

Winning IS Everything:
Fitzgerald has everything you look for in an elite wideout except blazing speed. He makes up for that by using his size and route running ability to get separation, and is one of the best red zone threats in the game. The ascent to number one was quick for Fitzgerald, and he is primed to be there for years to come.

Instinctive:
Disclaimer: I want to make this very clear. Correlation does not imply causation. Any of the trends or patterns I point out do not make it certain that they will happen. Let's not turn this into a correlation vs. causation debate. The information below is strictly for informational/entertainment purposes only. The only thing I feel strongly about is the tendencies of carryover in the different positions. The rest should be used cautiously.

TOP 5 WR, BY YEAR (1pt/10yd, 6 pts TD)
2000 - (Randy)Moss, Harrison, Owens, (Rod)Smith, Bruce
2001 - Harrison, Owens, Boston, (Rod)Smith, (Jimmy)Smith
2002 - Harrison, Owens, Ward, Moulds, Toomer
2003 - (Randy)Moss, Holt, Ocho Cinco, Harrison, Boldin
2004 - Muhammed, Walker, Horn, Owens, Harrison
2005 - (Steve)Smith, (Santana)Moss, Fitzgerald, Ocho Cinco, Galloway
2006 - Harrison, Owens, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, Holt
2007 - Moss, Owens, Edwards, Wayne, Fitzgerald
2008 - Fitzgerald, (Andre)Johnson, (Calvin)Johnson, Jennings, White

COMMENTARY
There was carryover of 3 players only once during this span (00-01), 2 players twice (01-02, 06-07), 1 player four times (02-03, 03-04, 05-06, 07-08) and zero players once (04-05). Given this sample, about half the time there will be only one player to return to the top 5. Harrison had an impressive streak of 5 seasons from 00-04 with the second longest streak being TO at 3 seasons. Harrison was the only player to repeat as top FF WR. Harrison was the only player to make it back in the top 5 after being the top FF WR the year prior and did it twice.

Larry Fitzgerald Projections