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Spotlight - QB Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings
Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts
As I type this, John Madden is announcing his decision to return to the broadcast booth. The Hall of Fame coach and announcer was perfectly content to enjoy his retirement, traveling the country to spend time with his kids and grandchildren. But then he got THE CALL. You see, it turns out Brett Favre really isn't done playing, either. And if Brett Favre is playing, John Madden is announcing.OK, now that I've got your attention, let's get serious about the return of one of the league's all-time best quarterbacks. Favre, just three weeks after insisting he would remain retired, has changed his mind and signed a 2-year, $25mm contract with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings immediately named him the starter, and even went so far as to have him play the first series in the team's 2nd preseason game, just days after he was given the playbook.
Should fantasy owners care?
A year ago, when Favre left the Packers and joined the Jets, he was a divisive figure. Many avoided him assuming he was past his prime and wouldn't adjust well to the intensity of the NY media. Others, myself included, argued that Favre is too much of a gunslinger ever be discounted. If he plays 16 games, he's a mortal lock for 3,400 yards and 20+ TDs.
My predictions came true, as Favre threw for 3,472 yards and 22 TD passes, completing almost 66% of his attempts. He finished as the 14th best fantasy QB, in spite of an absolutely terrible final month of the season. Let's take a look at Favre's monthly splits last year:
| Month | YdsPerAtt | Cmp% | TD% | INT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 7.5 | 70.2% | 9.7% | 3.2% |
| October | 6.1 | 66.7% | 2.7% | 6.3% |
| November | 7.1 | 69.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| December | 5.8 | 56.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% |
Fast forward and Favre had THAT surgery, and is back in the league playing for a former division rival.
On the face of it, his adjustment to Minnesota should be much smoother:
- He's played many times in the Metrodome
- The Vikings offense is very similar to the WCO he ran most of his career in Green Bay
- Darrell Bevell, the Vikes OC, was Favre's QB coach for three seasons in Green Bay
On the other hand, there are still a number of key concerns:
- He's had almost no time working with his offensive teammates
- The Vikings are a run-first team, and won't give Favre the opportunity to throw 550-600 times
- When he doesn't trust/know his teammates, he tends to force the ball; he led the league in INTs in 2008
- The Vikings offensive line allowed 43 sacks last year and then lost its star center to free agency
- He still has a torn rotator cuff
This bit of shocking news came at the press conference announcing the signing. While he did end up repairing his biceps tendon, he opted against surgery on the rotator cuff. He, and the Vikings doctors, believes he can play through the pain. And no one questions Favre's ability to play 16 games. But can we really discount a torn rotator cuff for a 40-year old gunslinger?
Positives
- Favre has never finished worse than QB14 in fantasy circles, yet is being drafted outside the Top 20 this year. He was a Top 8 passer until the biceps tendon issue left him reeling in the final five games. And he's joining a team where he knows the OC, the offensive system, and the environment inside and out
- The Vikings have more talent offensively than many realize, the team threw 21 TDs last year with questionable QB talent. Bernard Berrian, rookie Percy Harvin, TE Visanthe Shiancoe and RB Chester Taylor are all compelling weapons
- Adrian Peterson is going to run wild on defenses and demand 8 men in the box, Favre will have a lot of opportunities to make plays in single coverage, and off play action
Negatives
- Favre hasn't finished as a Top 10 fantasy QB in three of the last four years, and is a good bet to be at or near the top in interceptions thrown
- He's had no time to built rapport with his teammates, and the Vikings offensive hasn't been as effective as his lines in Green Bay usually were
- He has a torn rotator cuff, the extent of which remains unclear
Final Thoughts
Brett Favre was the 8th best fantasy QB last year with five games to go, and then the wheels came off. At least a part of that can be blamed on a torn biceps tendon, which Favre had surgically repaired this offseason. Now he's joining a team where he's intimately familiar with the OC and the system, and playing in a stadium he's had plenty of experience in. The receiving corps is also better than many give it credit for, compare it to some of the receiving corps he had in Green Bay and it compares well. On the other hand, the offensive line isn't as good; Favre is going to take hits. He's an iron man but has a torn rotator cuff and at 40 years old, injuries take longer to come back from. And most importantly, Adrian Peterson is going to be the focal point of this offense, so whatever Favre does, he'll have to do it with 500 or fewer pass attempts.I would say that Favre is likely to finish in the middle of the fantasy pack if he stays healthy. His year end numbers probably equate to a decent QB2, but he's not someone you have to pay up to get, nor should you prioritize him.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
Just Win Baby:
Last season, Minnesota attempted 452 passes, and the season before they attempted just 432. It is hard to say for certain how much of that had to do with the (lack of) quality of the passing game... so it's hard to say how much that number might increase with an upgraded passing game (Favre and Harvin). In Childress's first year, the Vikes passed 540 times, but (a) they didn't have AP, and (b) they had their worst record of his tenure (6-10).
475 attempts seems reasonable.
caglassc:
I think Favre will have a solid year for several reasons.
1. Playbook! He will be running an offense that he is more familiar with than the one he ran in NY last year.
2. Motivation! Being able to play in the same division and against teams that defined your career has to be a motivator. Along with what Favre feels as a legitimate shot at winning a Superbowl.
3. Schedule. If you look at and put any faith in Clayton Gray's "Strength of Schedule" then it is apparent heading into the season that the Vikings have a fairly easy schedule that Favre and the Vikings should be able to take advantage of.
4. Adrian Peterson. In all the years that Favre has played, he has never had a talent on the offensive side of he ball that could match him. Peterson should make Favre a better QB.
5. Health. It would seem that Favre is healthier at this point and hopefully that remains the case.
Bri:
I have enjoyed the conversations so much the last few years as he toyed with us with his retirement stuff. I love how he plays the game. I am afraid of what could/would happen if this old man gets hurt badly. If he gives me no choice but to root for him(and I will if he's playing) then I would chalk him up for 3300 and 20 TDs.
I know people love Percy this year and Adrian is already looking like a future hall of famer but, they also have some other players with "WOW" speed on that team. If the ball is placed well, at the proper time.....see ya.
20 INTs are a distinct possibility.
If Parcells or Gibbs or Fisher or Noll coached this team they would see if it were possible to run 1000 times in a season. The line does well, but there are alot of third downs that are handled poorly, third downs that could fire up the team and instill alot of confidence. Give them to Adrian not Favre and this is a scary scary team.
Vikes could go 13-3 if Favre throws for 2000 yards.
It's been a long time since someone managed him well for an entire season, though parts have been well.
3300 and Vikes are wildcard or close call division winner
rzrback77:
The Vikings will run a lot. Favre's presence could open up the defense a little more for Peterson and Taylor to have more room to operate. I do not think that his QB play will influence their game plan as much as it did with the Jets a year ago. I believe that the Vikings will stick to their knitting and run the ball. I personally don't see the lure for the Vikings to bring him in as their best path is a game manager and that is the anti-Favre.
Brett Favre Projections
| SOURCE | PYD | PTD | INT | RSHYD | RSHTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wood | 3250 | 22 | 18 | 40 | 0 |
| Message Board Consensus | 3465 | 23 | 18 | 40 | 1 |