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Spotlight - RB Kevin Faulk, New England Patriots

Posted on 8/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Those looking for a text book definition of running back-by-committee need look no further than the New England Patriots. Over the past few seasons, the Patriots have evolved into a RBBC, sometimes by design, sometimes by necessity. Last year, Sammy Morris led the team with 156 carries (the only player to crack the century mark), while Kevin Faulk led the team in fantasy scoring (ranking 27th).

Given that the Patriots did not have any big names or big fantasy producers last year, the perception many people had was that they were a fantasy wasteland and had very ineffective running backs. However, that was far from the truth, as the New England running backs as a unit generated some lofty fantasy totals.

While far from spectacular, the Patriots group of Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis were productive. Here were the Top 10 teams in 2008 for RB fantasy production:

Heading into the 2009 season, Jordan has been replaced by long-time Jacksonville Jaguar great Fred Taylor, clouding the Patriots backfield situation even more. On a fantasy points-per-game basis, here's a breakdown of how the key players have fared over the past three seasons:

Several of these players could have merited their own Player Spotlight, so here's a mini spotlight on each of them:

Fred Taylor
Taylor never really got untracked last year with injuries and a banged up offensive line. He eclipsed the 5.0 ypc mark in both 2006 and 2007 seasons, finally received a Pro Bowl nod, and surpassed the 10,000 yard rushing mark in those seasons. He needs just 82 yards to break into the Top 15 all-time among NFL rushers.

Taylor has struggled at times with injuries and has only played in all 16 games in two of his 11 seasons (the last being in 2003). He averaged a shade under 15 carries a game the past four seasons and has experience in RBBC situations. Taylor will try to become the first 33-year old (or older) RB to crack the Top 20 since Marcus Allen in 1996.

Early training camp reports have been positive, as Taylor has been the fastest back on the field with a quick burst and vision to spot openings to run through. He has been taking the majority of first team snaps but it's still early and a lot could happen between now and opening day.

Laurence Maroney
Maroney had a disastrous 2008, breaking his shoulder and missing 13 games. He has to be considered somewhat of a disappointment since coming into the league as a first round pick. He's shown flashes, but he's still looking for his first 1,000 yard rushing season and looks to surpass his career-best of six rushing TD.

For the most part, Maroney hasn't been a workhorse. He's averaged 13 carries a game but has not seen many goal line looks or targets in the receiving game. People salivated over Maroney after his hot streak in a potent 6-game stretch across the 2007 regular season and postseason (120 carries for 586 rushing yards and 7 TD), but he's yet to replicate that production since.

Since coming to New England, Maroney seems to have earned the label of being soft and one to avoid contact, frequently dancing to avoid tacklers instead of lowering his shoulder to move the pile. The bottom line as we head into 2009, Maroney has slipped on the depth chart and will have to re-stake his claim for carries. His best asset may be his age at this point.

As things stand currently, Maroney seems to have fallen to fourth on the depth chart. He's been focused on returning kicks in training camp and appears to be the first option in that area. On the plus side, some beat writers have commented that he appears to be working hard and has not tried to avoid contact on his oft-injured shoulder. Some first hand reports from camp have indicated he has otherwise seemed ordinary with the exception of an isolated play here or there.

Sammy Morris
Morris has probably been the most consistent fantasy producer in the games that he's played in New England. He's also on the wrong side of 30 (he's 32) and has had his own injury issues (32 games missed in nine years). He has, however, scored 10 TDs in 19 games with the Patriots. He's probably the most versatile back on the roster, having filled short yardage, blocking, receiving, and between-the-20s roles. He's also a favorite of Head Coach Bill Belichick, who has praised Morris for his hard work ethic. If Taylor went down, he'd likely get the majority of carries and if Faulk were out Morris would probably take over on third downs and passing plays.

Kevin Faulk
With the Pats utilizing a lot of multi-receiver sets out of the shotgun, Faulk stands to be on the field quite a bit. He's mastered the art of eking out first downs, has excelled as a change of pace back, and has saved Tom Brady's bacon on a number of occasions with his blitz pickup skills. He should again see 40-50 receptions and will be a decent late draft option in PPR leagues. Like Taylor and Morris, Faulk also is a 30+ year old running back (33) and the wheels could fall off at any time. He won't make a run at being a regular fantasy starter, but he's a decent backup and will usually provide some sort of production from week to week.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Green-Ellis benefited from injuries to all the other RBs last year and produced very well (49 fantasy points over a four week stretch). However, he may not even make the final roster and does not have practice squad eligibility left and may wind up on another team's roster. It will boil down to whether the Pats keep an extra RB or and extra TE.

Positives

• The Patriots have seen their running game improve the past few seasons and the advent of a lethal passing attack has contributed to that success
• Even though the 2007 squad was known for its passing prowess, early in the season NE still managed to rush the ball 30-35 times a game before it went into jail break passing mode
• Given the high octane New England offense, there will be countless scoring chances and a lot of touchdowns to be divided up. The RB corps scored 22 times last year

Negatives

• Half a loaf is better than none, but half of a half of loaf may not be. This will be a RBBC and no one back is expected to carry a heavy workload
• To make matters worse, the high fantasy scorer from week to week may not be the same back and some weeks the team will feature the pass almost exclusively
• The RB corps as a unit has been plagued with injuries over their careers, only detracting from any fantasy stability and predictability

Final Thoughts

Here's how things will likely shake out this year.

Between the 20's: Taylor primary back, Morris second string, Maroney as depth.
Short Yardage and Goal Line: Morris primary back, Taylor second string, Maroney as depth.
3rd Downs and Passing Situation: Faulk primary back, Morris second string.

Game plans will vary from week to week to exploit match ups. In the spirit of competition, those that are productive in the first half of games will earn more touches in the second half. The logic behind this sort of rotation aims to keep people fresh each week and throughout the season, so there probably won't be a guy with many more than 15 carries in any given week.

The Patriots have shown that they will need to use all their backs, as in the past few years no one has remained healthy on a consistent basis. If someone were to be out one week, the other backs will benefit. It is important to note that there is very little chance that one of the backs beats out all the others (if they are all healthy) to become a 20+ touch per game back.

New England is expected to run their offensively similarly to how they ran it in 2007. That equates to pass first, run second with the hope of running late in the game with a big lead. They may not run up the score as much as they did in their quest for a perfect season, so they may have a few more carries this year (but fewer than 2008). The effectiveness of the defense will also dictate how much liberty the offense has to try to extend drives and run clock.

While there is no way to predict injury, there is a decent chance one of these guys will end up on injured reserve. That would obviously impact the projections for all the backs.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Blackjacks:
I think Taylor is going to be the guy in NE

However, I do see alot of people getting touches and wouldn't want to rely on them as my starters

I think Taylor was promised touches when he signed with NE. Belichek wouldn't have brought an older to the team if he didn't have plans for him. All the older people he brings in are usually impact players right off the bat.

I see Taylor finishing in the top 25 rb's this year and having a couple of really good games, probably early in the season.

Anonymous Internet User:
Morris is 32 years old, Taylor is 33 and both have an extensive injury history. Faulk is also 33.

I think a healthy Maroney will be getting the lions share of the carries in 1-back sets and Morris/Taylor/Faulk will all see action in 2-back sets. Overall, I'm not sure I'd want to depend on any of them on my fantasy roster this year except as a very late round gamble.

rzrback77:
Another good news bad news situation with the Patriots backfield. If they do have injuries or they do decide to give the lion's share of the carries to one guy, then you will have a very very cheap productive RB. However the chances of that are slim and none. They have a collection of over the hill guys along with a continual disappointment. Even though he is currently 4th on the depth chart, Maroney is really the only one that could be the work horse back.

Fred Taylor is 33 years old entering the season. He had 143 carries a year ago for the Jags and only one game with over 20 carries. The year before that he had 223 carries, but only three games with over twenty. In addition to his age of 33 years, he has had 2,428 career NFL rushes.

Kevin Faulk enters the season at 33 years old also. He has had only two NFL seasons out of ten where he has over 100 carries in a season. He is an awesome third down back, but he is also well past that age where trouble comes to RBs. He has averaged almost 50 receptions per year for the last three seasons in New England and without injury should see a lot of opportunities in third down situations, limiting anybody else from being a bell cow back.

Sammy Morris is only 32 years old entering the year. He also has two seasons with over 100 carries, but one of those was last year with the Patriots. He eclipsed twenty carries in only one game, the last one in the regular season.

Laurence Maroney is 24 years old entering the season, much younger than most would expect. He was the Patriots first round pick in 06. He played in only three games a year ago, but had 175 and 185 rushing attempts in his first two seasons. He had four games with over twenty carries in his second season after sharing the load with Corey Dillon in his rookie season.

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