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Spotlight - WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

Lee Evans has been an enigma for fantasy owners; frustrating them for some time now. He has all of the physical tools to be an elite NFL wide receiver. He is big and fast. He can get open deep without much difficulty. He is the poster boy for the word "potential". Yet, Evans has enjoyed exactly one strong season, 2006, with little else to get excited about before or after.

Evans leaves fantasy owners with a lot of questions going into 2009. Can he get back to the 2006 level of production? When we notice that he rarely has produced to this current ADP, it is unlikely? Evans is currently being drafted as the WR24 off the board, player 65 overall, even after finishing as WR27 last season. That sounds crazy. He has finished higher than this ADP (WR24) only once in his career and that was before Terrell Owens came to town. Could Owens' presence open things up for Evans? It is possible, but not likely. In Evans' one good season (2006), he was targeted 137 times. So, we need to ask ourselves if we think Evans will get that many targets with Owens on the field. I highly doubt it unless something drastic happens with the Buffalo offense. Evans could not even get that many targets either of the last two years as the unquestioned WR1 for the Bills. He finished these seasons with 113 and 102 targets, respectively. In his 80 games as a Bill, Evans only has thirteen 100-yard games.

Now, Terrell Owens is a Buffalo Bill. How will it affect Evans? Looking back at history, we can assume Owens will assert his WR1 status early and often. Can the Buffalo passing offense support two receivers with this high of expectations considering Dick Jauron is the head coach? The answer is likely a "no". If so, what will give? Owens will get his targets. It will probably be Evans and his production that decreases even further with Owens in town. When we look at the numbers put up by Dick Jauron offenses, they are far from the pass-happy levels needed to sustain two top receivers. While Jauron has been in Buffalo, the Bills have finished 24th in the NFL or worse in pass attempts every season. One more statistic to think about if you expect a large uptick in passing numbers for the Bills in 2009: after Jauron's first ever season as head coach (1999 in Chicago), his teams have never finished higher than 22nd in passing yards. Can a zebra change its stripes? Can Jauron change his ways to have a pass-friendly offense? It is not likely, especially in the cold weather of Buffalo. In three seasons Jauron has been in Buffalo, the team has attempted 478, 444, and 429 passes respectively. Even if Buffalo passes more, it would have to be a HUGE jump in attempts to support both receivers ... especially Evans.

Most fantasy owners that are excited about Evans' prospects in 2009 are also excited about Trent Edwards. He is a young passer that will continue to improve. Edwards is a player that many are touting as the sleeper of the year. He is the key as to whether the Bills can have two strong fantasy wideouts. In order to see how much Edwards can improve, let's first look at what he has done as a pro. His inconsistency is a worry. In 2008, Edwards had only one game with 19 or more fantasy points. In contrast, Edwards had four games (out of fourteen) with less than nine fantasy points. So, Trent Edwards had one big game and several bad games. The question still remains whether the Bills passing game under the direction of Trent Edwards can support two viable fantasy receivers. In fourteen games last year, Edwards only tossed eleven touchdowns, to go with ten picks. It is interesting to see many projecting Edwards with 20-plus touchdowns. Edwards only had one game in 2008 with more than one passing touchdown. In 24 career games, Edwards has the same amount of scoring passes as interceptions, 18 of each. With 18 touchdown throws in 24 career games, it does not seem probable for him to throw for enough scores to warrant the drafting of two Bills' receivers as fantasy starters. The ability of Edwards to stay healthy is another concern given no viable backup passer in Buffalo.

When we look at the Buffalo passing game the last two seasons, we see a young passer in Trent Edwards that has found it difficult to avoid injury and to finish the season strong. In fact, Edwards has had a poor ending to both of his seasons in the NFL. Evans has found it similarly difficult to finish the season strong with Edwards under center. Evans has totaled only 185 receiving yards and one touchdown in the last three games of 2007 and 2008 COMBINED. The addition of Terrell Owens cannot help Evans' chances of suddenly becoming relevant when fantasy owners need him most.

To make matters worse, the Bills' schedule adds the tough defenses of the AFC South and the ultra-competitive NFC South outside of the AFC East schedule. In addition, Buffalo's AFC East rivals should be improved. The Jets and Patriots look to be strong on the defensive side of the ball. Lee Evans is a talented receiver. But, there are plenty of question marks.

Positives

• The Bills are opening up the offense this year and will use no-huddle quite a bit
• Evans is a blazer, and should benefit from no longer commanding double teams because he was the de facto option in the Bills moribund passing game
• Terrell Owens has historically had a good impact on his fellow starter, contrary to some opinions

Negatives

• Trent Edwards is, at best, unproven but at worst is a below part quarterback
• Will HC Dick Jauron really allow the offensive coaches to throw enough to support TO and Evans as fantasy commodities?
• Evans has one memorable season to his credit, and did little in spite of being the Bills lone deep threat over the last two seasons

Final Thoughts

When we look back over the past two seasons for Evans, we quickly see some causes for concern. As the primary receiver for the Bills, Evans only had over five receptions in a game five times in the two seasons combined. That is not good for an unquestioned WR1. In addition, he only passed the 100-yard receiving mark twice each season. The target numbers are also telling. In 2008, Evans received 39% of the wide receiver targets. This was down from the 41% from 2007. Could the Bills' coaches have gone to a more conservative offense with the young Edwards under center? This is likely. If so, why would we expect things to change dramatically? In order for Evans to exceed his current ADP, the offense needs to throw A LOT more, Trent Edwards has to improve substantially (especially down the stretch), and Evans needs the targets of an unquestioned primary receiver. What are the chances?

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

laughinboy_2000:
There are several reasons in 2009 to like Lee Evans. I feel he may be one of the most undervalued players this year and a great player to target in early drafts. Let's take a look at why I think he is so undervalued in 2009.

1. People will look at last year's stats and see that Evans only had a career low 3 TDs. However, he was a top 10 WR for the first 8 weeks of the season. His production then tailed off the second half of the season. But look closer and you will see due to non-production from other players in Buffalo, he received constant double teams from opposing teams.

2. Trent Edwards I believe will be a better QB this year. He's a QB who is learning and got better if you look at his stats at the end of the year. He now has two solid options at the WR spots and a strong running game with Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson. This should be a more balanced offense.

3. Finally the most important reason Evans I believe will outperform his average draft position in 2009. The arrival of TO will finally get this guy some single coverage. Evans has proven that he is one of the NFL's best deep threats, and now with TO in town, I believe we will see his targets, receiving yards, and TDs all increase in 2009.

I think owners could expect to see Evans 2006 like stats. Maybe better.

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
Lee Evans should be getting more attention given his ADP and the reasonably high expectations people have for the Bills. Obviously if you aren't buying into the Bills offensive resurgence that's one thing, but if you give it any credence (as I do), you have to think Evans is the biggest beneficiary of Terrell Owens' presence. Owens may be 35 but he's still a dominant threat and one defenders won't take lightly. Evans, meanwhile, has been opposing defenses main worry for years; and now he's no longer going to be blanketed play in, play out. Evans is a great deep threat, and can haul in balls and adjust to poorly thrown deep outs. I see that as a huge advantage for him this year with Edwards continuing his maturation process.

Whereas I expect Owens will have the bigger fantasy numbers, I think Evans is probably the more compelling fantasy value at his current ADP. You don't have to pay for a breakout season to draft him, but he's lined up well to do just that.

Lee Evans Projections