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Spotlight - QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 8/16, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Timing is everything. Two months ago had I decided to write this Spotlight it would've had a decidedly more optimistic bent At Footballguys, we literally start planning for the season in February, and I usually have my first set of league-wide projections a week or two after the NFL draft. After my first run through of projections, I was surprised to see that I had Trent Edwards as a Top 12 fantasy QB. There was a lot to like at first glance; not the least of which was the addition of Terrell Owens.

My initial enthusiasm boiled down to the following thesis...
To me, Edwards is the classic example of a heretofore unremarkable QB making a leap into fantasy relevance. He's young, has experience, has acquitted himself reasonably well in that experience, has no credible challenge for snaps, and the team appears to have upgraded his supporting cast. Now, to be clear, I'm not a huge believer in the Bills coaching staff and worry that they won't really open up the offense as promised. But with Terrell Owens in town, that makes Lee Evans arguably one of the best WR2s on the planet, and suddenly the Bills other receivers match up fairly well as WR3/4/5s league-wide. In the past, one could argue the Bills were overmatched at each point in the WR tree.

All that still holds, and yet as I write this Edwards now stands at QB18 in my projections. What happened?

The biggest question for me is the offensive line. Admittedly my initial enthusiasm didn't put a lot of analysis into the offensive line. Yet as the offseason progressed, and I began looking at team's offensive line situations, it was impossible for me not to discount the risks the Bills line presents. The Bills are going to have new starters at ALL FIVE OFFENSIVE LINE POSITIONS; that's an unheard of upheaval for a unit that is only at its best after time together to build rapport and cohesion.

Projected Offensive Line, Buffalo Bills

• LT -- Langston Walker -- Walker was rock solid as the Bills RT, but does he have the lateral speed to handle a move to the left side?
  
• LG -- Andy Levitre -- Levitre was the first guard drafted in April, and projects as the new left guard
• C -- Geoff Hangartner -- A free agent from Carolina
• RG --Eric Wood -- Wood is a rookie who played center at Louisville primarily, but does also projects as a solid guard.
• RT -- Brad Butler -- Butler is being moved outside after starting at right guard the last few seasons

Clearly there is some talent in the new line, which is why I'm not completely panicking. But it's hard to discount the growing pains we're likely to see, and that's not a good sign for a young QB who has a tendency to hold onto the ball.

My other cause for concern is a slight change in my stance on Terrell Owens. I still view him as a major upgrade (how could I not), but he's not the same receiver who turned Donovan McNabb into an MVP candidate back in 2004. Owens is still a physical marvel who scores in bunches, but he only caught 49% of his targets last year from Tony Romo, and has lost a step or two. Will Owens flourish in a less hospitable situation? And will the notoriously conservative tendencies of HC Dick Jauron wear thin on Owens quickly?

Positives

• Edwards completed 65.5% of his passes last year and averaged a very solid 7.2 yards per attempt; those underlying metrics bode well when combined with his strong physical attributes (6'4", 220 pounds)
• The Bills are planning on revitalizing the K-Gun offense that was made famous by Jim Kelly and the 4-time Super Bowl Bills in the early 90s. That kind of offense means more passing and should give Edwards a chance to put up some eye popping number particularly against suspect defensive secondaries
• The addition of Terrell Owens should allow Lee Evans to face single coverage, and makes the rest of the WR corps to slot more naturally into their respective roles

Negatives

• Edwards only threw 11 TDs in 14 starts a season ago, he looked tentative and was unwilling to try to thread the needle even when it was the prudent course of events
• The Bills are COMPLETELY rebuilding their offensive line
• Dick Jauron, no matter who calls the plays as his OC, has a long history of conservative, predictable offenses

Final Thoughts

Trent Edwards could easily be one of those QBs that comes from nowhere and puts up Top 12 numbers. That assumes a number of things. 1) The No Huddle works as more than a gimmick. 2) Terrell Owens is still an elite WR1. 3) The rebuilt offensive line gels quickly. That's by no means an impossible set of circumstances, but it's also a bit much to expect for a guy who had a losing record as a college QB. Edwards is currently being draft QB19, which is just a bit lower than I think he should go. I would rather have Edwards as my backup than Kyle Orton or Joe Flacco, but would much prefer David Garrard who is going in the same round in most leagues. As a QB2, he's a high risk/high upside guy. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Bills Fan 11:
I'm not sure where he's being projected at this point, but I may target him as a high upside backup if I get one of the top 4-5 QBs. If I don't get an elite guy and I'm playing match-ups every week I don't think I'd trust him as one of my two.

bigmiiike:
Edwards isn't horrible, contrary to what some people think. The addition of TO, plus the absence of Lynch for the first few games means the passing numbers should be decent. Put me down as cautiously optimistic.

Chicago Hooligan:
Any new thoughts after tonight's airing of the no-huddle? Even if this team isn't good Edwards will probably put up startable fantasy numbers. I still don't see him getting drafted as a starter (Top 12) though.

Trent Edwards Projections