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Spotlight - WR Braylon Edwards, New York Jets

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Will the real Braylon Edwards please stand up? Is it the 2007 version that had 80 catches, 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns? Or is it the 2008 version that had just 55 grabs for 877 yards and a meager three scores? Determining that answer will go a long way towards knowing if Braylon Edwards deserves a high fantasy draft pick this season or should be left for the rest of your league to pick. Currently he's going right around the end of Round 4 according to our latest ADP (4.12 or 48th pick overall, WR17) -- which would be cheap for a double-digit touchdown wide receiver but way too expensive if his numbers are similar to last year's production.

Looking at the bright side for Edwards starts by noticing that the second most targeted Brown in 2008 is gone from the team. Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr. was traded during the off-season to Tampa Bay, which means that Edwards will have no problems in getting his 9+ targets a game yet again this season. Edwards has averaged over 135 targets for the past three seasons with 138 last year and a peak of 153 in his stellar 2007 performance. Looking down the roster and no other current Cleveland player had over 50 targets last year, so that does make Edwards the primary receiver by a wide margin.

That ties in to his downside -- and that is that opposing defenders will key in on covering Edwards. If defenses take away Edwards with consistent double-teams, there may not be anyone left for either Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson to throw to on passing downs. Wait, did I not say which quarterback will be the starter? You caught me -- and that's our next negative point about Edwards. Until Cleveland picks a starter, team chemistry and getting that critical timing down between quarterback and wide receiver will not be dialed in for the start of the regular season. If the Browns let two quarterbacks battle all through training camp, Edwards will also be splitting reps between Quinn and Anderson, effectively wasting half of his time by working out the timing of routes with the backup signal caller.

But let's not give Edwards excuses already, because if 2008 is anything like 2009 he will be needing plenty of them. Both he and Dallas' Terrell Owens (now in Buffalo) were vying for the dubious lead in passes dropped. Neither of them can get away with blaming anyone but themselves for losing out on several scoring plays just because of a mental lapse that made them drop a sure touchdown. Edwards had 138 targets last year, over eight a game, but only caught 55 passes for an amazingly bad 40% reception rate. Just how bad is that? Only Terrell Owens (49%) and Santonio Holmes (48%) had less than 50% success with a minimum of 100 targets last season. Most receivers are well above 50% and several get into the 60-70% range.

Let's close out this discussion on Edwards with a few more bright spots. Cleveland's not expected to be very good (again), which should mean lots of chances in the passing game for their top receiver. Adding to Edwards' numbers is that he does tend to get open deep as told by his career 15.6 yards per reception (YPC) average -- so what he may give up in receptions he does make up for in yardage. It also will help him that the Browns are also expected to have issues with their ground game, which will lead to more passing, but it could hurt him as well with defenses favoring pass defense.

Positives

• Big end zone target year after year
• Primary receiver for Cleveland with Kellen Winslow Jr. gone
• Solid track record of high YPC (over 15 YPC for his career)
• Bad defense and ground game will force Cleveland to throw

Negatives

• No one to pull away attention from the defense -- likely to face double-teams
• Consistency is a problem -- numerous drops and very poor reception rate (40%)
• Quarterback instability will hinder his timing and progress with eventual starter
• The Cleveland weather during fantasy playoffs could impact Edwards' production

Final Thoughts

Braylon Edwards is an early "boom or bust" type of wide receiver pick for fantasy drafts in 2009. He was WR3 in 2007 but just WR36 in 2008. In my opinion, the truth lies somewhere between those extremes, and that's validated by his ADP of WR17 as of late June. There's so many different ways that Edwards can go this year, with dependencies on quarterback and also whomever gets the second starting wideout job for Cleveland. If a rookie like Brian Robiskie steps in and takes over the short or intermediate routes, Edwards may be able to run deeper and with less double coverage all season and finish the year with big numbers. Cleveland's lack of any other proven receiver on the roster after Edwards will likely limit both Edwards' and Cleveland's offense this season. If everything falls perfectly into place for Edwards, a 90-catch, 1,400 yard, double-digit touchdown season would be within reach -- but that is far too much to ask or expect. Put me down for about 75 catches, 1,100 yards and eight scores for Edwards this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

mlball77:
Talent and the motivation of a future payday will carry Braylon through 2009. However, I am very concerned about the overall effectiveness of CLE's offense.

Frenchy Fuqua:
Cleveland's O should struggle and play from behind frequently. With Edwards as their only experienced WR I think he'll be the king of garbage time/dink-dunk production.

millertyme1:
The new Chris Chambers of fantasy. Can make the spectacular catches, struggles with the easy ones.

MAC_32:
Braylon's at his best when he's being leaned on for big plays, last year he was asked to make big plays and possession catches and...well, you saw what happened. Robiskie was brought in to take over the sorely missed Vicius role, if he steps in and takes over immediately as I think he will that should open things up for Braylon to get back to his 7-8 targets/game big play making role. If Braylon's asked to do what he did last year then something closer to last year should be expected, it's possible but it's not part of the new regime's plan.

Funny how things change in a year, this time last year many were talking about how great the Browns offense was, now they suck? Expectations last year were too high, this year they're too low. In reality they're somewhere in the middle, take advantage in your drafts.

Braylon Edwards Projections