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Spotlight - WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

It seems that every year there are a handful of players that are underrated, for a whole host of reasons. For me, Donald Driver is at or near the top of that list. Many believe that he has lost a step and that Father Time is catching up on him, much like it did for Marvin Harrison. In my view, nothing could be further from the truth.

Let's look at Driver's career to date, focused mostly on the past seven seasons. Driver has topped 1,000 yards in six of those seasons -- that's a pretty good average, no matter how you slice it. Driver has finished the season as a Top 30 fantasy wideout for five consecutive years, including two Top 10 finishes (and one at the #13 spot). His position in the Packer offense is cemented for 2009 as the starter opposite of Greg Jennings, with both players collecting 80 catches last year. Jennings is clearly the featured wide receiver for Green Bay as he had 280 more yards and four extra touchdowns in comparison to Driver's five scores.

Driver turned 34 in February, which is another big reason that people are getting wary of his ability to put up the fantasy stats as he once did. There are some numbers to support the case of his decline -- last season was his first with fewer than 80 catches since 2003, the last time he had under 1,000 yards. Driver's yards per catch (YPC) is also concerning as it has been under 14 for the past two seasons (while it was over 14 from 2004 through 2006). Driver has posted three years of eight or more scores, but none since 2006. Could 2009 be a rebound year, or his last hurrah as a starter?

Aaron Rodgers has established himself as a capable NFL quarterback, completing 28 touchdown passes in his first year as the Packers' starting signal caller. He clearly had a bigger affinity for Greg Jennings instead of Driver, but both topped 110 targets last season (Jennings 140, Driver 115). In every season where Driver has had 113 or more targets he has racked up 1,000 yards and 70 or more catches. Yes, the Packers are changing the face of their offense to Rodgers and Jennings, but Driver is still there and still productive. As long as he can remain that way, it affords both Jordy Nelson and James Jones more time to develop and get ready to be the eventual WR2 for a strong passing offense.

Positives

• Driver has put up 1,000+ yards and 70+ catches for 6 out of the past 7 seasons, including the last five consecutive years
• Aaron Rodgers is a Top 10 NFL and fantasy quarterback, willing to throw 30+ times a game and capable of big plays
• Greg Jennings is an asset in that Driver does not have to be the WR1 for the Packers. As the secondary wideout, Driver gets lots of single coverage and can get open 7+ times a game
• His current ADP is a ridiculously low range and represents huge fantasy value

Negatives

• Driver turned 34 in February and is certainly in the later stages of his NFL career
• While he has topped 1,000 yards in 2007 and 2008, he barely made it to that number due to his lower yards per catch average. Driver had a 14+ YPC pace from 2004 to 2006 but dropped below that line the last two campaigns
• Two younger wide receivers on the Packers' roster are itching for playing time. Both Jordy Nelson and James Jones are currently fighting for the third wide receiver role, but eventually one of them will challenge Driver's starting status
• Green Bay has talked about using Ryan Grant and running the ball more in 2009, which could lower Driver's numbers

Final Thoughts

Donald Driver is about as consistent as they come when it comes to NFL wide receivers. Five consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with 74 or more catches will do that for your reputation. His age and his numbers have been declining the past two seasons, but his touchdown totals have also been lower than usual for a wideout that gets over 110 targets on the year. Aaron Rodgers may look towards Greg Jennings more often, but defenses are going to roll the better coverage to Jennings' side as well. Driver is a crafty veteran who can beat single coverage far more often than not and get open over the middle and move the chains -- exactly what every team needs on third and long. While it may not be a sexy pick in a fantasy draft to pick up Driver in Round 8, fantasy teams getting WR2- or WR3-type numbers that late in the game cannot be disappointed. Driver may be nearing the end of his career, but I believe in giving a veteran who has "been there and done that" the benefit of the doubt and trust that he can put up at least 80% of his 2008 numbers for one more year. Even if he "only" gets 65 catches and 850 yards, that is still worth a Round 8 pick and should be good enough to give several solid weeks of production.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
There are always three or four veteran receivers that, no matter how consistent, are ALWAYS discounted. They usually make great picks in redraft leagues as a result. Driver had a string of 1100-1200 yard, 75+ catch seasons and yet seemingly every year his consensus ADP would end up out of the Top 25.

Driver has had five consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, yet has an ADP of 36. Does not compute. This for a team with a 4,000-yard passer and an established offensive system that isn't going to stop throwing the ball. Has Driver been superseded by Greg Jennings? Of course, but that doesn't mean Driver is getting his just desserts. Last year he finished WR23 and importantly averaged 13.7 yards per catch, in line with his career average. This isn't a case of an aging veteran hanging on with guile, he's still making plays all over the field.

rzrback77:
Donald Driver is a tough projection in 09. He has taken great care of his body and always gives his all, but he enters the season at age 34 and with a couple of good young WRs on his heels. On the other hand, he has five straight seasons over of 1,000 yards with 29 TDs over that stretch. He has an ADP of WR36 and 94 overall though and he has finished as the WR30 and WR23 in the last two seasons. He also has an outstanding QB.

I think it comes down to how well you consider the capabilities of Jordy Nelson and James Jones. If both of them are worked into the line-up and the Packers use a rotation system, then Driver's productivity will significantly decrease. If he remains the obvious #2 WR, then I think he provides nice value where you get him. Kind of risky though, especially if you value one or the other of Nelson and Jones. I think this is the year that the youth get worked in and Driver's targets drop. I also think that it will be his last year in Green Bay and maybe the NFL.

Donald Driver Projections