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Spotlight - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 8/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Very few fantasy owners question Maurice Jones-Drew's talent. Yet, this year, it seems quite a few are questioning whether he has the durability to be a full-time workhorse. The reason his durability is in question this year is because the Jaguars have jettisoned long-time great Fred Taylor and appear ready to greatly increase Jones-Drew's role after serving in a running-back-by-committee over the last few seasons. In expectation of an increased workload, Jones-Drew's fantasy stock has skyrocketed, and it'll now cost you a Top 2 or 3 overall selection to roster him.

Before we get into Jones-Drew's considerable talents, I want to address this notion of 'handling the workload.' It seems we fantasy owners pick and choose when a player's past history should work against them. When a highly touted rookie comes into the league, you rarely hear fantasy owners questioning whether he can "handle the workload." Yet, it seems that when a player has a few years of NFL experience under his belt, and hasn't yet been a workhorse, everyone starts decrying his potential.

It would be one thing if Maurice Jones-Drew had shown an inability to handle more work. Say, perhaps if he got nicked up every time the coaches tried giving him more than 15 touches a game. Or if the coaches specifically called him out as a part-timer. But that's not the case.

Let's assume for a second the Jaguars personnel department is rational. Would a rational GM take the following steps if they thought Jones-Drew wasn't capable of a full-time role?

• Release Fred Taylor
• Ignore the RB position in free agency
• Wait until the 7th round to draft a rookie RB

And if you're still not convinced, clearly you wouldn't argue that money talks. In that case, would the Jaguars have signed Jones-Drew to a 4-year extension worth $31mm with $17.5mm in new guarantees if they thought he wasn't a franchise back? Jones-Drew enters this season as one of the three highest paid runners in the NFL.

At the time of the extension, HC Jack Del Rio didn't mince words:

"It really was a matter of wanting more Maurice," Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio said. "We want Maurice on the field more often. We believe he's a feature guy and it's his time. We're excited about that."

Now let's get down to brass tacks...

Jones-Drew is an exceptional short-yard runner -- Over the last three years, only 17 RBs have 50 or more carries inside the 10-yard yard line. Jones-Drew ranks among them, with 63 rushes. But the real question is how well did he convert those carries into scores?

Jones-Drew is NOT undersized -- A lot of people think Jones-Drew is undersized, but that couldn't be further from the truth. He's short (5'7"), but he's muscular with a big base, and outweighs many of the league's other top backs. He came into OTAs weighing 220 pounds and will probably break camp in the 208-210 pound range. By way of reference, Clinton Portis weighs 205 pounds, Barry Sanders weighed 203 pounds, and Walter Payton weighed 200 pounds. His size is a non-issue.

There is no one on the roster to replace Fred Taylor's workload -- Fred Taylor logged 597 carries over the last three seasons (Jones-Drew has 529 over the same span). The next closest rusher? QB David Garrard with 171. Here are the workloads of the other RBs fighting for roster spot:

• Greg Jones -- 44 rushes
• LaBrandon Toefield -- 23 rushes
• Alvin Pearman -- 18 rushes
• Chauncey Washington -- 4 rushes
• Rashad Jennings -- 0 carries

Ironically, it's Jennings, the rookie, who is probably the best bet for a big workload. But does anyone really think he's going to command 200 rushes a season like Taylor did? Even if Jennings gets 125-150 rushes this year, Jones-Drew is still going to have to run the ball 225-250 times himself; at a minimum.

The offensive line should be MUCH improved -- The Jaguars offensive line struggled last year, but can you blame them? For a chunk of the season four starters were injured. What team wouldn't struggle when 80% of its' intended starters are in the training room? This season things should be much different. Not only are the starters back and healthy, but the Jaguars upgraded their depth. 1st round pick Eugene Monroe projects as a long-time starter at LT. 2nd rounder Eben Britton is already pushing for Tony Pashos' job on the right side. Oh yeah, and the Jags signed Tra Thomas to man the left tackle spot until Monroe is ready. This is the same Tra Thomas who anchored the stellar Philadelphia Eagles offensive line for the last decade.

Jones-Drew will, once again, catch a ton of passes -- Jones-Drew is a great receiver, and that's not going to change in his new role. With no star talent at tight end, and questionable depth at the WR spot, QB David Garrard is still going to need to rely on Jones-Drew's open field skills as a receiver. Remember, Jones-Drew finished 3rd in the NFL last year with 582 yards after the catch.

And let's say after all this analysis, we're wrong, and Jones-Drew ends up as a part-time player again in 2009. Let's say that Rashad Jennings ends up being a wunderkind 7th round pick and Greg Jones regains short-yardage touches. Then what? Well, Jones-Drew's STILL a Top-10 fantasy back.

• 2006 -- 210 touches and finished RB8
• 2007 -- 207 touches and finished RB13
• 2008 -- 259 touches and finished RB9

Positives

• Jones-Drew is excellent at all the things that count the most in fantasy. He scores TDs in bunches and he catches a ton of passes
• The Jaguars gave Jones-Drew a new monster contract, released his long-time committee partner, and added no credible threat to his workload; he's going to get the touches
• The Jaguars offensive line is healthy and has significantly better depth

Negatives

• Jones-Drew only has 5 games with 20+ carries in his career
• If the revamped WR corps fizzles, defenses will key on Jones-Drew week in, week out (his YPR fell to 4.2 last year when the same situation occurred)

Final Thoughts

Worst case scenario, Maurice Jones-Drew does what he did in 2006, 2007 and 2008 -- put up Top 10 fantasy numbers. Best case, his workload increases behind a much improved offensive line and he cruises to the first of several Top 5 fantasy seasons. In PPR leagues, Jones-Drew should garner serious consideration as THE TOP PICK, but even in traditional redraft leagues, he's someone you have to consider in the Top 5 at the latest.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Maurice Jones Drew could be the Michael Turner of 09. He has had even more success in a part-time role than Turner had and he should be cut loose as the Jaguars bell-cow RB. I don't know why, but I am having difficulty accepting these projections.

MJ Drew 06 16 gms 166 rushes 941 yds 5.7 ypc 61 targets 46 catches 75.4% 436 yds 15 TDs RB8 non-ppr
MJ Drew 07 15 gms 167 rushes 768 yds 4.6 ypc 55 targets 40 catches 72.7% 407 yds 9 TDs RB13 non-ppr
MJ Drew 08 16 gms 197 rushes 824 yds 4.2 ypc 75 targets 62 catches 82.6% 565 yds 14 TDs RB9 non-ppr

I keep getting stuck on the RBBC data and remain curious as to how he will hold up. Only two games with greater than 20 carries and 9 with under ten carries as a rookie. No games with over 20 carries in 07 and still three with under ten. Last year, he had three games with over 20 and five with single digit rush attempts. He has obviously been kept fresh throughout his career and I think that point has been lost in the previous projection.

There is no doubt that he is an awesome athlete with good speed and is extremely well liked as well. I just think that he will not get the number of carries that are projected by many. I think that the Jaguars will involve others or will run less often than in the past so that MJD is not worn out.

TheDirtyWord:
I've been a guy who had the unsure look on his face when discussing MJD as the #2 overall player in FF this year. I recognize that with Fragile Fred no longer part of the equation that the burden of RB production for Jacksonville falls squarely on his shoulders. But for awhile, I couldn't really get past the fact that he hasn't been THE man at all in Jacksonville. It's not that I don't think he'll produce...but at the #2 overall level? I really question that. However...

The biggest differentiator for RBs isn't necessarily workload, but the way they can generate production. If anything, the Jaguars WRs improved only slightly and even that's debatable with the essential swap of Matt Jones for Torry Holt. But the big numbers to look at with Jones-Drew are these...in a RBBC role, he's averaged during his 3 year career:

49 Receptions
503 Receiving Yards
1 TD

Unless you see his role in the Jacksonville passing game diminishing, I think it's safe to assume that he'll be in the 1700 Yards From Scrimmage realm at a minimum. One thing though I could see is a move away from Jones-Drew inside the 5. He's been a deadly producer in the red zone and I don't think they'll bring him off the field all the time. But I could see a Greg Jones/Chauncey Washington/Rashard Jennings emerging as a short yardage weapon to ease the workload increase on MJD.

Plus, with the Jacksonville O-Line back healthy again with the infusion of two highly regarded rookie tackles, I can see this team being able to spring MJD with more frequency than in 2008 when he only averaged 4.2 YPC.

Burning Sensation:
MJD has the least question marks of any RB. He is a good goal line back, great pass catcher, little competition for touches. Low center of gravity and a knack for avoiding big hits gives him a good shot at playing 16 games. The Oline is healthy, and they also added some help up front in the draft. The Jaguars have a better WR corps this year than they have had in the past several years. A run first team with a solid defense should give him plenty of opportunities. All this on top of the fact that he is one of the most talented RB's in the league, and in the prime of his career. He is my favorite to finish as the #1 RB this year, in any format.

jurb26:
MJD is primed for fantasy elite status this year. All the signs are pointing to a breakout year in the mold of Holmes/Alexander. The scary thing is that IMO MJD is more talented than either for mentioned RBs. Will his team create the same sort of opportunity? I guess we'll see. I think so and as long as MJD plays in all 16 games I see little chance he is anything but the #1 RB in fantasy. MJD can do it all on the field. He runs between the tackles, can beat teams to the perimeter, is $$$ at the GL, he blocks well in pass protection and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield. Jack is clearly heavily invested in their Oline and thus the running game.

switz:
We all know MJD has talent, there's no argument there. The question is, can he display his talent given a full workload?

In the past, we've been teased by players who looked GREAT in share time situations, and then flopped when given the load.
Kevan Barlow in 2003, splitting with Garrison Hearst - 1,024 yards at 5.1 per clip, he was going to be great! Then he started and averaged 3.4 per clip...
Ryan Grant in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 5.1 per clip for half a season, then last year averaged 3.9 per clip
Marion Barber in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 4.8 per clip, then last year was averaging 3.9 before getting injured

Jones-Drew has looked great for three seasons, BUT...
- he's never had 200 carries in the NFL
- his yards per carry has gone down each season, as his number of carries has increased
- he's never rushed for 1,000 yards (like Barber)
- his fantasy ranking has always been highly dependent on TDs

The one benefit that MJD has, like Barber had early last season, is he's a very good, and often used receiver out of the backfield. One has to wonder though, if they run him more, will he still be as big a component in the passing game. And - was his usage in the passing game a result of JAX having a dearth of WRs? With their additions, and the development of WRs this year, will he be used as much in the passing game again?

Maurice Jones-Drew Projections