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Spotlight - QB Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

More than any other quarterback, Jake Delhomme can't wait to get back on the field and erase the memory of the last time he was in the huddle. The 34-year old veteran single handedly lost his team's divisional playoff game against eventual NFC Champion Arizona with a performance that will live in infamy. Delhomme completed 17 of 34 passes for 205 yards, a TD pass and FIVE INTERCEPTIONS. Just watching him made me feel uncomfortable, I can't fathom how it must have felt to be the guy throwing those ducks.

The playoff debacle aside, Delhomme actually had what most NFL pundits would call a successful 2008. He threw for 3,288 yards and 15 TDs against 12 interceptions, leading his team to a 12-4 record. He led the league with 13.4 yards per completion, and had a very solid 7.9 yards per pass attempt. His completion percentage (59.4%) wasn't stellar, but it was hardly disappointing either.

But being an effective game manager is hardly something fantasy owners should care about. Delhomme simply doesn't have the opportunity to be anything more than a middling fantasy QB2.

The Panthers simply don't throw enough
It's been five years since Delhomme attempt more than 500 passes. And in six years in Carolina, he's averaged 29 attempts per game, or 470 attempts over a 16-game season. That's simply not enough of a workload to amass fantasy caliber stats. And when you consider the impressive state of the Panthers ground attack (2,437 yards rushing, 30 rushing TDs in 2008), there's absolutely no reason to think Carolina is suddenly going to change their run/pass ratio.

Steve Smith is a stud, but there's not much beyond him
Steve Smith is a bonafide star, but beyond him Delhomme doesn't have many difference makers. Muhsin Muhammad has enjoyed a respectable career but turned 36 years old in May. Dwayne Jarrett has yet to materialize. Ryne Robinson, Kenneth Moore and Jason Carter don't project as regular contributors. And the TE cupboard is bare.

Even on a per attempt basis, Delhomme doesn't throw a lot of TDs
If for some reason you think the stars will align and Carolina plans to throw more in 2009, there's still little reason to think Delhomme will benefit. Only 3.6% of his attempts went for scores last year, and he wasn't much better in 2007. He got off to a red hot start in 2008, but it's hard to count that considering his season lasted all of three games.

Positives

• Steve Smith can make any passer look good, and Muhsin Muhammmad is still an above average WR2 based on last year's numbers
• The Panthers offensive line does a great job keeping Delhomme comfortable int he pocket
• In the one season Carolina let Delhomme throw more than 500 times, he was a Top 8 fantasy QB

Negatives

• The Panthers don't throw the ball much, averaging 470 attempts per season in Delhomme's tenure
• The presence of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson leave little reason for Delhomme to be anything more than a game manager; his job is to not make mistakes
• It's been three seasons since Delhomme was even a mediocre QB2 in 10-team leagues, much less someone worth starting

Final Thoughts

Jake Delhomme is probably the least exciting QB we Spotlighted this year. In a hobby where fantasy owners usually have short memories, it seems Delhomme is an exception to that, as people seem to remember his one fantasy relevant season in 2004 (3,800+ yards, 29 TD passes) as though it happened yesterday. Either way, the Panthers don't throw enough and when they do Delhomme doesn't do enough with each throw to be relevant in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Jake Delhomme is one of several QBs that are grouped together in what I like to think of as affordable mediocrity with potential for upside. There are several guys in that group, but I like Jake with Steve Smith and Muhammad as solid red zone options. Delhomme has a current ADP QB 20 and 132 overall. He finished 19th overall last year and was obviously affected early on recovering from his Tommy John surgery and without his security blanket Steve Smith for the first two games.

Last season he only had five multiple TD games and never more than two in a game, whereas in 06 he had six out of thirteen where he had multiple TDs. I expect a few more passing TDs in 09 and similar ypa numbers. The Panthers had an enormous number of rushing TDs in 08, including six one yard rushing TDs and four two yard TDs by Williams and Stewart.

I sense that at least a few of the Panthers 28 rushing TDs from 08 will be passing TDs in 09.

Blackjacks:
I don't see him finishing the year as the starter. I see him playing like the mediocre player he is for about the first 6-8 games and then Fox handing the ball over to Matt Moore.

puckalicious:
Jake is in no jeopardy of losing his job. Chase Stuart has clearly documented in other posts just how efficient Jake is in this offense. Sure he had that meltdown to end the season last year but that is a fluke in comparison to his season as a whole. I think the pressure to keep up with ARI just got to him.

Jake Delhomme Projections